Which Oscar Nominees Will Profit Most?

This story, by John Burman, originally appeared at CBS' Moneywatch.com

Sure, the film industry's biggest awards still convey as much prestige and honor as always. To quote the Academy, they reward the year's "greatest cinema achievements." And not so long ago, an Oscar win could catapult an actor not merely to bigger roles but also supersized paychecks. Matt Damon, for example, came out of nowhere to snag a statuette in 1997, and he and his accountant never looked back.

But today's new Hollywood economy means has those shiny statuettes are coming up shorter in ka-ching.

"Our business definitely has changed," says film and TV producer Rick Alvarez. "When someone who was less established won an acting Oscar even 10 to 15 years ago, they probably doubled or tripled what they were making. That is far less likely today."

The main reason for Oscar's shrinking payoff: Hollywood is no longer a seller's market. There are several factors at play, but the bottom line is basic economics, with prices falling as demand drops.

• Even while the industry is coming off a record box-office year in North America ($10 billion in tickets sold), big studios are cutting back both the number and types of films they're making.

• At the same time, spectacle-driven global behemoths like Avatar and 300 are challenging the concept that you need A-list stars to ensure success at the box office. (The same could be said for as well as sleeper hits such as Best Picture nominee District 9 and Paranormal Activity.)

• A shift in fee structures has more actors forgoing upfront cash in exchange for a share in profits after a film has broken even financially.

• Meanwhile, the independent film market has dramatically shrunk over the past few years, with the shuttering of studios like Warner Independent
Pictures and Picturehouse and the downsizing of New Line and Miramax further reducing demand for the Hollywood workforce.

To be sure, an Academy nod can be a significant permanent asset for both winners and nominees. "Their Oscar connection is yet another piece of marketing for the movie," says Tony Angelotti, a veteran publicist and awards consultant. "If I'm producer Scott Rudin and I want four Oscar winners and/or nominees in my next film, then I can go and sell it that way. If your choice is between a previous Oscar contender and a terrific actor who isn't one, you might lean toward the former."

All that may leave anyone hoping to take home an Oscar on March 7 feeling a bit, er, up in the air as to what their nomination - or even a win - will mean financially. Hollywood observers say the payoff depends greatly on the actor's profile and career stage.

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Oscar's Golden Ticket

Hollywood dealmakers say the biggest Oscar payoff is for the newer-to-the-scene actors or those who have been under the mass audiences' radar. Past examples include Damon, who got an acting nomination and won the original screenwriting award (shared with Ben Affleck) for 1997's Good Will Hunting. Miramax reportedly paid him and Affleck $500,000 for that film; within five years he was bringing in eight-digit paychecks for films such as The Bourne Ultimatum. Other examples include Cate Blanchett, nominated for 1998's Elizabeth and then a winner for 2004's The Aviator, and Anna Paquin, who long before X-Men and TrueBlood made headlines as the second-youngest Oscar winner (for her role in The Piano).

"The one who the nomination can probably help more than anybody is Christoph Waltz," says Robert Osborne, Turner Classic Movies host, Oscar historian, and the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences' official red carpet greeter at the Academy Awards. Waltz, a first-time nominee for Best Supporting Actor for Inglourious Basterds, has already picked up trophies from the Golden Globes, the Screen Actors Guild Awards, BAFTA awards and more, and is widely favored to take home an Oscar statue. From now on, "he'll always get work," Osborne predicts.

Among the other first-time nominees poised to capitalize this year are Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker); Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air), who is also in the Twilight franchise; Carey Mulligan (An Education); and Gabourey Sidibe, nominated for Best Actress in Precious - her first-ever film appearance.

"It's a life changer certainly for people like Renner, Kendrick, Mulligan and Sidibe," says Alvarez. "These are performers who have been doing it for a short while or been under the radar." An Oscar win would give them "instant awareness," he adds.

Angelotti also points out that a nomination can cement a person's leading man/leading woman status, which leads to bigger paydays. "It can take someone who goes from supporting player to conceivable leading man or woman and that's the metrics that change that," Angelotti says. "He/she then becomes a character possibly to build a film around with that kind of fame and exposure off the win. Leading men and women get movies made, not co-stars."

Big Shrug?

The brighter the star, conversely, the smaller the payoff, say those interviewed for this story. This year's crop of nominees includes A-list juggernauts like Meryl Streep (nominated for Julie and Julia), George Clooney (Up in the Air) and Damon (Invictus).

But at the top of Hollywood's food chain, say executives, there's just not that much room left to climb. "With Clooney, there's no difference," says one film production executive who asked not to be named. "He's one of the biggest stars in the world. His quote won't go up."

Oh, and about that quote: Vanity Fair says Clooney earned $22 million in 2009, including $10 million just for Up in the Air. But even that big payout may have been structured so that Clooney had to wait for the studio to break even before he got the bulk of his payout.

Extra Padding

For some actors, even if an Academy nod falls short of transformational, the award still has the capacity to move them into a different class of performance. Two who fall into that category this year are Jeff Bridges (a Best Actor nominee for Crazy Heart) and Sandra Bullock (Best Actress nom for The Blind Side). Although both have already achieved long-term success in different ways - Bridges more from the critical perspective; Bullock in a mainstream sense - both stand to profit from a high-profile win.

If Bridges, who is favored to win, picks up the statuette, "it may give him bigger studio movie opportunities that may not have come to him the past few years," says the production executive.

Bullock, meanwhile, has scored just by being nominated, says Alvarez: "Audiences have always loved her; but the critics haven't. ... The nomination gives her credibility in dramatic films."

Another Hollywood insider said Renner, who's facing off against Bridges in the Best Actor category, would fall into this category as well. Renner "has gone from being completely unknown to Oscar nominee; his quote will go up significantly," said the marketing executive, who asked to remain anonymous. "But he's a character leading actor right now; not yet a leading-man actor. ... It won't go astronomical yet."

Helen Who?

And of course, for every Matt Damon or Anna Paquin there's a cautionary tale - an actor whose afterglow seems to fade almost as quickly as it arrives.

All the movie-world insiders interviewed by MoneyWatch warned against judging actors' post-win careers, cautioning that the actors may have had personal reasons for choosing roles that let them drop out of the limelight. At the same time, actors like Cuba Gooding Jr. or Helen Hunt remind us that a golden statuette is no guarantee of a solid gold payout.

"Did the Oscar help Helen Hunt?" muses one industry observer of the former sitcom star who took home the best actress prize for 1997's As Good as It Gets. Hunt hasn't appeared on the big screen since her directorial debut, 2007's Then She Found Me. "I don't know. But she's not a viable name on the charts now. An Oscar didn't really do much for her."

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By John Burman