What's Ailing Al?

Whispers of concern are wafting over the Gore campaign. With all the advantages incumbency and a healthy economy can bestow on him, the vice president is lagging in the polls. It's only May, so no one is panicking yet, but there are some disturbing signs.

The vanishing gender gap is one. Those female voters who traditionally lean Democratic are becoming increasingly interested in Republican George W. Bush. And the Texas governor continues to enjoy the usual GOP advantage with male voters.

James Thurber, who heads American University's Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies, said "it's amazing" that Gore's isn't doing better among women or cleaning up with his stands on abortion and gun control.

Some of that may be due to Gore's personality, which delights in details and complexities. Part of the problem, says Thurber, is that "he's speaking from his mind, not his heart." Thurber thinks the vice president needs to focus on three or four simple issues, and suggests he embrace the simple, glib statement that can cut through the sound and fury of the campaign.

In contrast, Bush is all over the front pages. He's the one proposing new policies, while Gore's content merely to criticize and remind everyone that he's got his own plans, too. It's Bush who wins points, or at least coverage, for stretching his horizons on foreign policy - an area where the vice president's comfort level is quietly assumed. And it's Gore who faces a threat from, of all people, Ralph Nader, the current darling of a bored media.

Gore is, in effect, the incumbent in this campaign, but he hasn't been able to convince voters to give him credit for the robust economy. Instead of acting, he's reacting. "He's one of the most reactive candidates, for an incumbent, I've seen in a long time," said Thurber. "It's because he's behind and he's worried, and he's reacting to an agenda being set by Bush."

Earlier this week, for example, Bush criticized the Clinton-Gore administration for its Middle East policy. Bush said the United States had inserted itself into Israel's domestic politics and had put too much pressure on Israel during the Mideast peace process. It's easy to imagine how Gore might have slapped that one away with an answer that proudly outlined the administration's record, lavished love on Israel and underlined Gore's own inside knowledge of American foreign policy - while subtly suggesting that Bush doesn't know what he's talking about. Instead, Gore inexplicably chose to attack Bush's father, the former president, for his handling of Middle East politics.

It's easy to slam Bush's proposals as vague - and there has been a lot of skepticism in the press about just how his Social Security plan would work or what his missile reduction program would entail. But the point is, there is discussion. People are talking about Bush, and Bush is talking about ideas.

"Bush seems to be doing a better job of tlking about issues voters care about, or at least talking about them first," observed Bill Dalbec, a Republican consultant.

Now, of course, the election is still over five months away, and a recent CBS News poll showed that only 27 percent of voters say they're paying a lot of attention to the campaign. So maybe Gore is the smart one, ignoring the thumb-twiddling speculation of spring and saving his energies, initiatives and grand gestures for the fall. There's some indication he may stop comparing and contrasting himself with Bush, and start concentrating on family-friendly issues that appeal to the women voters he needs to enlist. But whatever he does, he needs to do it soon.

The Democratic National Convention in August should give the vice president a boost in the polls. But Thurber thinks he needs to go into the convention with plenty of momentum, or else his post-convention boost may not last. "He can't have the phenomenon of (President) Bush (in 1992), dropping 17 or 18 points after the convention," said Thurber, "and that might happen if he doesn't watch it."

If Gore still lags in the polls by October - still a very big if - he'll probably have to wage a negative campaign against Bush. And, Dalbec warns, "people don't respond well to incumbents when they go negative."

So while it may be only pundits and politicos watching at this moment, now is precisely the time to make a move - when no one is watching. Struggling in May is no big deal, but struggling in October is the beginning of the end.