Washington Wrap
Dotty Lynch, Douglas Kiker, Beth Lester, Clothilde Ewing, Sean Sharifi and Jamie English of the CBS News Political Unit have the latest from the nation's capital.
Tuesday's Headlines
* Poll Watch: Kerry, Kerry, Kerry (Is This Boring Yet?)
* No Surprise: Latest CBS News Delegate Count Shows Kerry With Huge Lead
* Beyond Wisconsin: Howard Dean's Next Move
* What Will Edwards Do?
* Wisconsin Advertising: Money isn't Everything
* DNC Doesn't Plan to Let Guard Issue Fade Away
* Special Election on Tuesday in Bluegrass State
* Will Contribute for Work? A New Spin on Giving at the Office
* Kerry Would be Third-Richest President in U.S. History
Poll Watch: A new national poll from CBS News (conducted Feb. 12-15; margin of error 3 percent) shows bad news for President Bush and good news for John Kerry. When Mr. Bush goes up against an "unnamed Democrat," the Dem beats the president 47 percent to 42 percent. Last December, the CBS poll showed that Mr. Bush would have prevailed over an unnamed Democrat by nine percentage points, 49 to 40. The newfound advantage appears to be benefiting Kerry: The poll finds that Kerry has a five-point lead over Mr. Bush in a hypothetical match up, 48 to 43. Howard Dean and John Edwards both trail Mr. Bush at this point, Edwards by nine points and Dean by 17.
Perhaps not surprisingly, the poll also shows Kerry is a heavy, heavy favorite for the nomination, with 53 percent of Democratic primary voters favoring him. His nearest competitors are Dean, with 8 percent, and Edwards, with 7 percent. And, "in a sign that Kerry's appeal may be even broader than his current level of support, 81 percent of Democratic voters say they would be satisfied if Kerry were the nominee."
And in Wisconsin, which votes today, a poll out on Monday showed Kerry with a big lead. A new Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby poll (conducted Feb. 13 through Feb. 15, margin of error 4.1 percent) shows Kerry with a large lead, with 47 percent of the vote. Dean has 23 percent and Edwards 20. As pollster John Zogby writes, "Kerry goes into the primary with a commanding lead … It is hard to see Dean going on from here. However, he is polling well enough to get delegates and it's interesting to see that Edwards and Dean together suggest a substantial non-Kerry vote."
CBS News National 2/12-15 (1221 interviews)
Hypothetical match up
Bush 43
Kerry 48
Bush 50
Edwards 41
Bush 54
Dean 37
Democratic nomination
Kerry 53
Dean 8
Edwards 7
Sharpton 4
Kucinich 1
Undecided 15
Wisconsin (72 delegates)
Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby 2/13-15(600 interviews)
Kerry 47
Dean 23
Edwards 20
Kucinich 2
Sharpton 1
Undecideds factored out
CBS News Delegate Count: Kerry now has a huge lead in the race for delegates with 605, trailed by Dean at 221, Edwards at 189, Wesley Clark at 77, Al Sharpton at 16, Joe Lieberman at three and Dennis Kucinich and Dick Gephardt each with two.
There are 72 delegates at stake in Wisconsin on Tuesday.
Back Where He Started: Dean has come full circle. When he first jumped into the race a year ago, he barely had any money, he was trailing badly in the polls and he had a small circle of loyal staff and after a campaign roller coaster, he is back where he started, The Burlington Free Press editorializes.
Dean's hometown paper says that should he lose in Wisconsin, his 17th straight loss, Dean should exit gracefully from the stage.
Meanwhile, The Los Angeles Times reports that for the first time in this race, Dean appears to be coming to grips with the fact that his insurgent campaign is coming to an end. "There'll be time for discussions if I don't win the nomination about how to deal with not winning the nomination," he said. "I don't think that time is quite here yet."
Although he still vows to stay in the race beyond Wisconsin, the walls seem to be closing in around the former governor. Steve Grossman, the campaign's chairman until Monday, is no longer with the camp after telling reporters he would support Kerry if Dean lost in Wisconsin.
At times Dean even seems a tad reflective, saying, "A lot of new things have happened because of this campaign," while in Wisconsin. "We did get to put some spine in the Democratic Party again after an absence of that." At other times he seems to have already thought about the next step. "You've got a movement here beyond tomorrow," a supporter told Dean. "Are you thinking about where it's headed yet?" Dean told him he was. "I have enough faith in the strength of our government and the strength of our people," Dean said, "to figure out that ultimately we will prevail."
Some of Dean's staff meanwhile seem to have come to the same conclusion as The Burlington Free Press, saying they don't see how he could possibly continue if he loses Wisconsin by a big margin, The New York Times reports. Dean aides, in conversations with CBS News, say they don't know what Dean will or should do. They hold few illusions about a comeback or even a "movement" but say Dean himself has to figure this out. Most were bitter about Grossman's public exit, which dominated the news the day before the primary
At a raucous rally at the Orpheum Theater in Madison on Monday, Dean volunteers put on a brave face. And for a few minutes they took to the stage chanting "1-2-3-4 Kerry voted for the war" — not quite ready, it seems, to fall into line behind the front-runner.
"Not So Fast, John Kerry": That was Edwards' line in the Milwaukee debate on Sunday night, and today The Los Angeles Times takes a look at why a longer primary race might be a good thing for the eventual Democratic nominee. Although many people have questioned why Dean would stay in the race should he lose Wisconsin, Edwards has received fewer calls to withdraw than expected, reflecting a change in strategy.
The thought among some is that it would be better for the party and the nominee if he had a contender through Super Tuesday on March 2, because continued competition will likely energize Democrats in the 10 states that hold contest that day. A few Kerry supporters may agree with that, though most would be happy to see any potentially serious opponents go away.
In conversations with CBS News it has become clear that there is a marked contrast in the moods of the Dean and Edwards camps. Like their candidate, the Edwards folks are generally upbeat and, as long as he doesn't come in third today, feel he can raise the money to contest the March primaries. But a third-place showing might make even the sunny Edwards campaign a little blue.
On Sunday, Edwards finally took a few shots at Kerry in the debate and has made trade a big issue in the Wisconsin primary. But on Thursday, the AFL-CIO, which agrees with Edwards on NAFTA, will endorse Kerry and it will be harder and harder for Edwards to get that "clean shot."
Ad Watch Wisconsin: In a perfect political twist of fate, the winner of Tuesday's Democratic primary in Wisconsin will almost certainly not be the candidate who spent the most time or money in the state. A new study from the Wisconsin Advertising Project shows that former candidate Clark was the biggest television advertiser, spending $370,000 to run ads in the state (The Clark campaign told CBS News last week that they had actually spent $550,000 on Wisconsin advertising.). Clark abandoned his bid for the presidency last week, but was running second in the polls before he quit.
If the Clark campaign wonders what its money bought, Dean's supporters are probably wondering where their money went. After the Feb. 3 contests, the Dean camp put up a fundraising bat asking for $1 million in donations to run ads in the Badger state. By the end of the bat, and with much fanfare, the Deaniacs had raised $1.4 million for the cause. But the Wisconsin Ad Project's numbers show that only $227,000 has been spent in the state since the bat hit $1 million mark. For a campaign that at one point called Wisconsin a "must win," the $282,000 total is paltry, especially compared with the amounts Dean poured into Iowa ($3.3 million) and New Hampshire ($2.7 million).
The Kerry campaign may have the best cost-benefit calculation. Kerry has spent only $263,000 on ads in the state, all since Feb. 3. In addition, Kerry has spent relatively little time in the state, where until last week he had not visited since June 2003. He didn't get back to the state until last Friday and then skipped into Las Vegas over the weekend.
Edwards has spent $316,000 in Wisconsin, second only to Clark, and is fighting for second in the polls. He got the endorsement on Sunday by the Milwaukee Sentinel and is hoping that nod, plus a big turnout in Milwaukee (which has a hot mayoral race), will help him come in ahead of Dean.
In total, the candidates have spent a total of $1.258 million in the Badger state. If voter turnout reaches the expected 1.6 million, as the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports, that would represent a spending of 79 cents a voter. To put the number in perspective, the Wisconsin Advertising Project predicted that the candidates would spend $100 on each Iowa voter. Add Wisconsin to the list of states that wishes it were as influential as Iowa.
Are Kerry and DNC At-Odds on AWOL Charge?: The Washington Times reports that despite a request from Kerry to lay off charges that Mr. Bush shirked his National Guard duties in the early 1970s, the Democratic National Committee has no plans to let the issue die.
The newspaper reports that: "At Sunday night's Democratic debate in Milwaukee, Mr. Kerry dismissed the charge by DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe that Mr. Bush was AWOL — absent without leave — when he was required to report to the Alabama Air National Guard in 1972. 'I have suggested that some people who are my advocates who've gone on that line of attack, it's not one that I plan to do, it's not one I have [done],' the Massachusetts senator said. 'I've asked them not to.'"
But the paper says DNC spokesman Tony Welch says it stands by McAuliffe's AWOL accusation. "The White House did more to advance this than anyone else," Welch told the paper. Welch said Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie started the fight when he accused Kerry of being soft on defense as a U.S. senator.
With the White House scrambling to erase any doubts about Mr. Bush's military record – including a 400-page paper dump on Friday night – we're not so sure Kerry will be overly upset with the DNC for refusing to let the issue of Mr. Bush's Guard service – or lack thereof – die.
Election Day in Kentucky, Too: While it won't get the kind of attention Wisconsin's Democratic primary will on Tuesday, the special election in Kentucky's 6th Congressional District — viewed by some as a mini-referendum on voter happiness with the Bush administration — will be closely watched by both parties.
Roll Call reports that voters heading to the polls today have been bombarded by nearly two months of television ads, direct mail and telephone appeals funded by more than $2 million in spending between the two candidates, state Sen. Alice Forgy Kerr, a Republican, and former state Attorney General Ben Chandler, a Democrat.
The seat has been vacant since Republican Ernie Fletcher resigned to become governor in December. (He beat Chandler in the gubernatorial contest.) Whoever wins will complete Fletcher's term and will have to run again in November.
From Nov. 1 to Feb. 11, Kerr has spent $690,000 on television, running eleven different ads during that time in the Lexington market. Chandler spent $451,000 on ten different ads, Roll Call reports. That disparity forced the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to spend heavily. The DCCC spent $354,000 on five ads from Nov. 1 to Feb. 11, while the NRCC spent $348,000 on five ads of their own.
An independent poll conducted Feb. 5-9 by the Louisville Courier-Journal showed Chandler with a 49 percent to 40 percent lead over Kerr. Kerr and Chandler are competing in a district that would have given Mr. Bush 55 percent of the vote in 2000.
One wrinkle for Democratic presidential delegate trackers out there: If Chandler wins, the number of delegates needed to win the 2004 Democratic nomination would shift a bit. The new delegate figures would be 4,322 total delegates, the sum of 802 unpledged or "superdelegates" and 3520 pledged delegates. That means in order to win the nomination a candidate must secure 2,162 delegates – up one from the current threshold. Again, keep in mind that these changes only occur if Chandler wins.
If Chandler wins Fletcher's seat, there will be 205 Democrats and 228 Republicans in the House, 1 independent (Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who votes with the Democrats) and one vacancy, former Rep. Bill Janklow's South Dakota seat, which will be filled in a June special election.
Giving at the Office: According to Roll Call, Mr. Bush has raised $109,000 dollars from his White House staff, political appointees, and career bureaucrats through September 30 of last year. This is more than twice the $39,000 Vice President Al Gore collected from federal employees during the same period in 1999.
The data collected by the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics reveals $2,000 checks from Karl Rove, Bill Frist, and both George H.W. and Barbara Bush. President Bush also received $2,000 from Commerce Department appointee Bruce Mehlman, brother of Bush-Cheney campaign manager Ken Mehlman, and $1,000 from Education Department appointee Kenneth Meyer.
Career bureaucrats have also donated $3,000 to Dean, $2,000 to Kerry, $1,000 to Sen. Bob Graham, and a surprising $2,625 to Lyndon LaRouche. On the whole, federal employees contributed $17,000 to Democratic political candidates and party committees, which is about 12 percent of what they gave to Mr. Bush and the GOP.
First Wallets: Kerry, with a family fortune at $525 million, would be the third-richest president ever if he manages to win the nomination and beat Mr. Bush in November, Forbes reports.
Kerry would fall behind George Washington — who would have made the Forbes 400 of his day based on the strength of his Virginia plantation and his wife's fortune — and the other JFK from Massachusetts, John F. Kennedy.
The key word is "family." Kerry's money comes from his wife, Teresa Heinz Kerry, who inherited it from her late husband, Sen. John Heinz III of the Heinz food family. Washington also benefited from marrying a very wealthy widow, Martha Custis. Forbes reports that Kerry's situation is similar to President Kennedy's, as Joseph and Rose Kennedy were still alive when JFK was in office and when he was assassinated. Forbes estimated the Kennedy fortune to be worth $850 million at its height in 1990.
Joseph Kennedy was, under campaign finance laws at the time, able to spend freely on his son's election campaign, which he certainly did though Kennedy used to quip that he dad refused to pay for a "landslide." In contrast, modern day federal law prohibits Kerry's wife from donating more than $2,000 to her husband's campaign, though their joint assets are fair game. Kerry borrowed $6.4 million against the couple's Boston townhouse to keep his campaign going in January.
Quote of the Day: "It is a deeply personal decision who you pick as your running mate ... I have not taken sides with regard to any of the candidates for president. I like Wes Clark, but it would be disloyal of me to favor any individual when so many have been helpful to me." – Former President Clinton on reports that he's been pushing for Wesley Clark to get the no. 2 spot on this year's Democratic ticket. (New York Post)