Washington Wrap
Dotty Lynch, Douglas Kiker, Beth Lester, Clothilde Ewing and Sean Sharifi of the CBS News Political Unit have the latest from the nation's capital.
Friday's Headlines
* Poll Watch: Guess What?
* All Eyes On Wisconsin
* Meanwhile, D.C. and Nevada Hold Votes on Saturday
* Flap Over Bush's Service in National Guard Continues
* Bush-Cheney Web Ad Attacks Kerry
* Sharpton Still Running, Still Causing Ripples
* Insiders Ponder Democratic Veepstakes Race
Poll Watch: And Then There Was One? Two new state polls show John Kerry with a large lead in Wisconsin and in the delegate-rich state of New York. In Wisconsin, which will select 72 delegates on Feb. 17, Kerry's lead in the most recent American Research Group poll (conducted Feb. 11-12; margin of error 4 percent) 37 points. John Edwards is in second with 16 points. This is the first poll conducted completely after Wesley Clark left the race. ARG's previous poll showed Clark in second; if the poll is correct it looks like Clark's decision was good for Edwards. Also of note in Howard Dean's must-win: the former governor now has the second-highest unfavorability rating of all candidates at 43 percent. This is a six-point uptick from ARG's previous poll; only Al Sharpton is seen more unfavorably.
Over in New York, which selects 236 delegates on Super Tuesday, Kerry enjoys another big lead. A new Quinnipiac University poll (conducted Feb. 4-10; margin of error 4.2 percent) has Kerry with a 41-point margin, leading Dean and Edwards. According to Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, "It's beginning to look like 'Super Tuesday' March 2, when New York and 13 other states hold primaries, will be super for Sen. Kerry."
And if that news wasn't good enough, a new national poll from Washington Post–ABC (conducted Feb. 10-11; margin of error 3 percent) shows Kerry beating President Bush in a hypothetical match up, 52 to 43. Even better for the Kerry camp? The poll does not bother to poll other hypothetical contests between Bush and the remaining Democratic contenders. Looks like one poll at least has chosen its nominee.
Wisconsin (72 delegates)
ARG – WI 2/11-12 (600 interviews)
Kerry 53
Edwards 16
Dean 11
Undecided 16
New York (236 delegates)
Quinnipiac – NY 2/4-10 (541 interviews)
Kerry 53
Dean 12
Edwards 8
Clark 8 (now out the race)
Undecided 13
Washington Post – ABC 2/10-11 (1,003 interviews)
Kerry 52
Bush 43
Wisconsin Badger Time: With just one primary contest next week on Feb. 17, all the major candidates are flocking to Wisconsin. Howard Dean's campaign once labeled Wisconsin's primary as do or die, and it is the first state where none of the candidates hold a regional advantage. With 72 delegates up for grabs and with Dean and Edwards desperately trying to slow Kerry's momentum, the stakes are high.
Meanwhile, Wesley Clark is sticking to his promise to campaign in Wisconsin. But instead of promoting his own candidacy, he endorsed John Kerry on Friday in Madison, reports CBS News' Bonney Kapp. However, the New York Times reports that Howard Dean is making an appeal to Clark's former supporters.
"I ask for your help," Dean said. "Wes Clark and I have one thing in common: We are both not from Washington, D.C." Dean also made a pitch for Dennis Kucinich's supporters, telling them that between the two, only one of them could beat Bush. "If you think Dennis is the right person to vote for, then please vote for him, never settle for the lesser of two evils," he said. (As you may recall, he referred to Kerry as the lesser of two evils earlier in the week.)
In the meantime, John Edwards is keeping his eye on two important prizes: Wisconsin, of course, and his coffers, reports the Los Angeles Times. Edwards made a quick side trip to spread his populist message to southern Californians on Thursday, to rally voters and to raise money, as he continues to express confidence in his prospects of staying in the race through Super Tuesday. He helped his financial cause by attending a fundraiser at the L.A. home of Hollywood producer Frank Spotnitz. Friday's schedule is much the same. He'll campaign briefly in Wisconsin, before heading back to California where he will attend a private fundraiser at the Staples Center and tape an appearance for the "Tonight Show." According to the L.A. Times, he hopes to raise about $500,000 in the two days.
First Things First -- Don't Forget D.C. and Nevada: Before the Wisconsin primary though, voters will head to caucuses on Saturday in Washington, D.C., where 16 delegates are up for grabs, and Nevada, where 24 are available. This is the second contest for D.C. voters, who went to the polls in the non-binding Jan. 13 primary. In that contest, Howard Dean came in first with 43 percent of the vote and Al Sharpton came in second with 34.
And, in Nevada, John Kerry will be the lone candidate campaigning on Friday, where he will attend a rally in Las Vegas. On Saturday, Kerry will meet voters at the Chaparral High School caucus site before leaving Las Vegas to head back to Wisconsin.
On Sunday, Wisconsin will be back in the limelight, when candidates debate for the last time before the primary at Marquette University in Milwaukee. Dean, Edwards, Kerry and Kucinich have agreed to attend the 6:30 (EST) event sponsored by WTMJ/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and broadcast on MSNBC.
National Guard Fight Continues: The flap over President Bush's service – or alleged lack thereof – in the Texas Air National Guard in the early 1970s continues to make headlines on Friday, with several newspapers digging around to figure out if Bush actually showed up for duty in Alabama in 1972-1973, as he claims he did.
The New York Times reports that "inside the Alabama Air National Guard an informal search is on for someone, anyone, who recalls encountering First Lt. George W. Bush in 1972."
The Times reports: "At Fort George C. Wallace, the Montgomery headquarters of the Alabama National Guard, officials have responded to growing scrutiny of President Bush's military record by searching through records for proof of his service in the 187th Tactical Reconnaissance Group. Former comrades from the 187th have been calling and e-mailing one another, always with the same basic question: Did you see him?
"So far, it appears that their efforts have come to naught. Indeed, in interviews this week with The New York Times, 16 retired officers, pilots and senior enlisted men who served among hundreds with the 187th in 1972 all said that they simply could not recall seeing Mr. Bush at Dannelly Air Base, the sprawling compound adjacent to Montgomery's airport that is home to the 187th.
"Yet try as they might — nearly all voiced strong support for Mr. Bush — none remembered crossing paths with him. Nor had any heard of anyone else in the 187th who recalled seeing him."
On the "he was there" side of the fight, the Washington Post reports that an unnamed Republican with ties to the White House "supplied phone numbers yesterday for the owner of an insulated-coating business in the Atlanta area, John B. 'Bill' Calhoun, 69, who was an officer with the Alabama Air National Guard. Calhoun said in a telephone interview that Bush used to sit in his office and read magazines and flight manuals as he performed weekend duty at Dannelly Field in Montgomery during 1972. "
Also in the good news column for the White House: The Boston Globe casts doubts on claims made this week by retired Lt. Col. Bill Burkett, who said Bush's Guard records were purged in advance of the 2000 presidential race. The Globe reports that, "a key witness to some of the events described by Burkett has told the Globe that the central elements of his story are false."
Bush-Cheney Web Ad Attacks Kerry: Republicans continued their concerted and increasingly harsh attacks on Democratic presidential frontrunner John Kerry on Thursday with a new Bush-Cheney Internet ad accusing the Massachusetts senator of coddling special interests while railing against them on the campaign trail.
The ad, posted on www.georgewbush.com and e-mailed to the campaign's 6 million supporters last night, comes on the heels of the latest in a series of tough speeches about Kerry by RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie. Gillespie spoke on Thursday in Nevada, which holds its Democratic caucuses on Saturday. The RNC also sent out an e-mail accusing Kerry of flip-flopping on issues.
The New York Times reports, "The broadsides have come as some of President Bush's most prominent supporters have been loudly urging him to engage in a fight with Mr. Kerry, concerned that the re-election campaign is not doing enough to slow Mr. Kerry's momentum."
The Web ad features a clip of Kerry saying he'll fight "special interests" as president and then shows a series of articles from recent weeks outlining Kerry's alleged ties with special interests.
Kerry spokeswoman Stephanie Cutter said of the Web ad: "We welcome a debate on special interests because there's nobody more vulnerable on this issue than George Bush. The fact is, George Bush has taken more special interest money than any person in history. He couldn't even put this ad on television, because he knows he can't appear in it to back it up."
Sharpton Still Causing Trouble: Democratic presidential candidate Al Sharpton has filed a lawsuit against Louisiana Secretary of State Fox McKeithan for not placing his name on the state's March 9 primary, reports The Times-Picayune. The state claims that Sharpton failed to properly qualify for the primary by submitting incomplete papers and paying with a check from the campaign account. State law requires payment in the form of cash, money order, or cashier's check.
Nineteenth Judicial District Court Judge Curtis Calloway has set a hearing for Feb. 19 on Sharpton's lawsuit. If the district court orders Sharpton's name onto the ballot, the state's primary will very likely be postponed.
Insiders Poll: Edwards Has Won Their Hearts for Veep: After 14 weeks of asking 50 Democratic Insiders who they thought would win the party's nomination, the National Journal poll went in a different direction this week. In a nod to Kerry's Big Mo, the poll this week asked its jury to "predict whom John Kerry will select as his running mate, assuming he is the presidential nominee." A majority, (29) of the 50 first place votes went to John Edwards. One wrote: "Kerry-Edwards is the Democrats' dream team." Another says, "He has the greatest claim to making the point that he has earned his way on the ticket."
Four other potential nominees received first-place rankings from the Insiders. Former presidential hopeful Richard Gephardt received eight number one votes, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson garnered five and Wesley Clark and Sen. Bob Graham both received one each. Although enthusiasm for Clark was muted, one Insider wrote, "I guess having two guys who got shot in Vietnam is better than one."
Still not seeing one you like? The Insiders list 30 other potential VPs as possibilities including other Sens, Reps, Govs, women, minorities and even Republicans. One candidate conspicuously absent from any mention in this week's Insiders poll? Howard Dean, who 46 out of 50 first-place rankings to be the nominee in December. Think these Washington Insiders aren't crazy about the fella who keeps trashing them?
Quote of the Day: "I don't think you want to know." – John Kerry, when asked what his wife, Teresa Heinz Kerry, bought him for Valentine's Day. (CBS News' Steve Chaggaris)