Washington Wrap

Dotty Lynch, Douglas Kiker, Beth Lester, Clothilde Ewing, Jessica Shyu and Katie Dyer of the CBS News Political Unit have the latest from the nation's capital.

Wednesday's Headlines

* Poll Watch: Rolling on to Wisconsin (and then where?)

* Ad Watch: Kerry, Edwards, Dean On the Air

* Torricelli Money Backed Anti-Dean Ad

* If Dean's Bat Worked Once, Why Not a Kerry Thermometer?

* Kentucky: The Other Feb. 17 Contest

Poll Watch: Rolling on to Wisconsin: Riding high on his victories in the South, the John Kerry Express moves north, looking to Wisconsin, Nevada, the states of Feb. 25 (but, alas, probably without a trip to the Hawaii caucuses that day) and then the states of Super Tuesday, March 2. Wisconsin polls show Kerry, who hasn't been in the state since June, with a wide lead. A Journal Sentinel/WTMJ poll (conducted Feb. 4-7; margin of error 4 percent) has him with a 32-point lead. And a slightly older poll from American Research Group (conducted Feb. 4-6; margin of error 4 percent) shows Kerry up by 26. Wesley Clark was running second in both polls, so his withdrawal from the race Wednesday may be good news for John Edwards and Howard Dean.

There are very few public polls for states post-Wisconsin, but one new Maryland poll indicates that Kerry's momentum carries straight through Super Tuesday. One of ten states that votes March 2, Maryland will select 69 delegates on that day. A poll from Gonzales Research and Marketing Strategies (conducted Feb. 3-8; margin of error 5.7 percent) shows Kerry with a 31-point lead. The Gonzales survey was taken before Clark left the race, so the numbers are almost certain to change there as well.

Wisconsin (72 delegates)
Journal Sentinel/WTMJ 2/4-7 (666 interviews)
Kerry 45
Clark 13
Dean 12
Edwards 9
Undecided 17

ARG – WI 2/5-6 (600 interviews)
Kerry 41
Clark 15
Edwards 10
Dean 9
Undecided 21

Maryland (69 delegates)
Gonzales Research 2/3-8 (326 interviews)
Kerry 45
Dean 14
Edwards 8
Clark 7
Undecided 21

Ad Watch: Air Wars in the Badger State: With the Southern primaries of Tennessee and Virginia now over, the campaigns of John Kerry, John Edwards and Howard Dean are turning their attention to Wisconsin. Kerry's campaign is on air with two ads. About two-thirds of the time, the Kerry campaign will run "Del," which features a Vietnam crewmate of Kerry's touting his leadership skills and calling him a "good American." A second ad named "Courage," a 30-second bio spot beginning with Kerry's 1971 testimony to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, will make up the remaining third of the buy. A previous version of the "Courage ad ran in the fall but has been out of rotation since then. The Kerry campaign refuses to characterize the size of its buy, but CBS News has learned it will spend approximately the same amount as John Edwards.

The Edwards campaign is sticking to the same messages that it took to early primary states. Edwards will run "Better Life" and "American Jobs" in Wisconsin, the campaign tells CBS News. "Better Life," which first ran in Iowa, begins with Edwards standing outside his childhood home in Seneca, S.C., and concludes with the senator saying, "I believe that when you remember where you came from, you'll always know where you're going and what you need to fight for: real change that will give today's families a chance to give their kids a better life." The other ad, "American Jobs," which debuted just before South Carolina's primary, features Edwards saying, "I approve this message because no one will do more than I will to keep American jobs right here in America." In terms of scale, while the Edwards campaign says it running a statewide buy, campaign manager Nick Baldick told reporters in a conference call Tuesday that the campaign would focus on "earned media" and not paid ads.

The Dean campaign is going back on the air in Wisconsin after more than two weeks of advertising silence. The campaign will run four ads: an old 60-second bio spot that traces Dean's life from medical school; two grassroots ads called "Mike" and "Max" recently created by his supporters; and a new ad called "Rubber Stamp," which implores voters to ignore John Kerry's momentum. Though it doesn't name Kerry, "Rubber Stamp," says, "Now the media tells us the race is over and the Washington insiders have won. So, on Tuesday, Wisconsin can be a rubber stamp, or you can vote for real change." Although the Dean team will not confirm the size of its ad buy, the New York Times reports that the campaign will spend $300,000 to run its ads in Wisconsin. What the Dean camp will do with the other $700,000 they raised to compete in the state is unclear.

The Truth Comes Out: Former Senator Bob Torricelli, who now raises money for John Kerry, joined forces with backers of Richard Gephardt in 2003 to take out Howard Dean. Torricelli and a number of labor unions that supported Gephardt were among the big givers to a 527 group than ran three negative ads against Dean last December in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, reports The Associated Press. The group, Americans for Jobs, Healthcare and Progressive Values raised $663,000 last year, according to finance reports, and nearly all of the group's donors backed Gephardt, Dean's main rival in Iowa.

The Dean camp is using the financial records to play up his role as a Washington outsider, saying they link Gephardt's backers to the group and illustrate how Washington insiders are trying to derail his campaign. And with Gephardt out of the race, Dean is turning his outsider wrath to Kerry: "What we now see is that John Kerry is part of the corrupt political culture in Washington."

Torricelli, who dropped out of the 2002 Senate race after being reprimanded by the Senate for ethics violations, contributed $50,000 from his Senate campaign fund to the group. FEC spokesman Bob Biersack told the AP that it was "fuzzy" whether Torricelli's contribution was permissible under FEC rules because donations to such groups are not included on a list of permitted uses for campaign funds. Nevertheless, Torricelli wasn't the highest roller. Two larger donors gave $100,000 each. They were Leo Hindery, chief executive of Yankee's Entertainment and Sports Network, who also gave money to Gephardt; and Slim-Fast Foods tycoon S. Daniel Abraham, who hedged his bets and gave money to both the Americans for Jobs group and Howard Dean.

The group aired three different ads, the most explosive of which zoomed into a picture of Osama Bin Laden, while an announcer said Dean didn't have the experience needed to take on terrorism. This ad ran in both New Hampshire and South Carolina. The group aired two other anti-Dean ads in Iowa. One ad targeted his history of endorsements by the Republican-friendly NRA, and the other attacked his support for NAFTA, which Gephardt has vehemently opposed. The group spent $15,000 on the Osama ad and $485,000 on the other two, a point that the group's treasure speaks of fondly. "We did more with $600,000 than Howard Dean did with $41 million," said David Jones, the group's treasurer and a Democratic fund-raising consultant, referring to money the Dean campaign raised and has pretty much spent.

Among the other big spenders were even more Gephardt backers, including several labor unions: the International Longshoremen's Association, Laborers International Union and International Association of Machinists, which gave $50,000 each; the International Association of Ironworkers, $25,000; and the International Brotherhood of Boilermakers, $5,000.

Jones would not comment on the large number of Gephardt donors, but said his group didn't purchase a donor list from the campaign.

If Dean's Bat Worked, Why Not A Kerry Thermometer? John Kerry's campaign is shadowing the fundraising tactic that netted Howard Dean's floundering campaign more than $1 million last weekend. Instead of a Dean bat, the Kerry campaign is running a web-based fundraising campaign urging Wisconsin voters to "heat up" and raise $800,000 for Kerry by Monday night. Similar to Dean's fundraising campaign, symbolized by a picture of a continuously updated baseball bat that marked the amount donated, Kerry's e-mail includes a picture of a thermometer.

The thermometer fundraising e-mail flogs President Bush's record on jobs and promises Kerry supporters that "our work has just begun." With Kerry thanking his supporters for the "groundswell of support," the campaign hopes that the thermometer's current $200,000 read out will not stay low for long.

Kentucky: The Other Feb. 17 Contest: While the biggest political story on Feb. 17 remains the Wisconsin Democratic presidential primary, more than a few eyes will be on the special election that same day in Kentucky's 6th Congressional District. Democrat Ben Chandler and Republican Alice Forgy Kerr are facing off to fill the seat of Ernie Fletcher, who was elected governor in 2003. Going into the final week of the campaign, Chandler has a comfortable, though not insurmountable, lead.

The Washington Post reports that both parties are spending heavily on the race, with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee pouring $339,000 into the contest and its counterpart, the National Republican Congressional Committee, spending $175,000. The Post reports that both the DCCC and the NRSC have also run ads for their candidates. The DCCC's ads touts Chandler's role as a state auditor and the NRCC spot advertises Kerr's experience as an educator and state senator.

Stuart Rothenberg, writing in Roll Call, says of the race, "A Republican defeat would suggest some problems for President Bush and his party. This isn't exactly what Republicans expected to happen when the seat became open, following Republican Ernie Fletcher's election as governor in November.

"GOP strategists planned to make the special election a referendum on a popular president and a contrast of ideologies in a conservative district. That way, they figured, they could elect Kerr to Congress even though the district has a Democratic registration advantage and is politically competitive.

"But, instead of being an unadulterated asset, the president is proving to be more of a mixed blessing, and Kerr and the Republicans are struggling, at least so far, to convince voters that the race presents a stark choice between a liberal and a conservative."

Chandler, who lost to Fletcher in the gubernatorial race, is a well-liked son of former Gov. Happy Chandler. He campaigned hard against President Bush's record in the gubernatorial race, but in the end was unable to shake the legacy of Democratic Gov. Paul Patton, whose final year in office was scandal-filled.

Rothenberg writes that "Kerr's (and the National Republican Congressional Committee's) strategy of linking her with Bush and painting Chandler as an anti-Bush, double-talking liberal simply hasn't been a slam dunk.

"If Chandler does win this seat, it won't be the end of the world for the Republicans … But a loss is a loss, and the GOP nominee's inability to ride to Congress on Bush's standing … would raise obvious questions for the Republicans about November."

Quote of the Day: "I do not recommend drinking urine... But if you drink water straight from the river you have a greater chance of getting an infection than you do if you drink urine. Now don't go home and say Howard Dean recommended drinking water out of the toilet or drinking urine." --Howard Dean, talking to middle-school students about water pollution. (CBS News sources)