Washington Wrap
Dotty Lynch, Douglas Kiker, Beth Lester, Clothilde Ewing and Jessica Shyu of the CBS News Political Unit have the latest from the nation's capital.
Monday's Headlines
* Poll Watch: Kerry, Kerry, Kerry
* Kerry Continues Amassing Delegates, Super and Otherwise
* Howard Dean Goes to the Grassroots Again
* Edwards Wiggles on Veep Question
* Schwarzenegger Backtracks on Campaign Finance Reform Promises
Poll Watch: A Yankee in Paradise: Riding high off his weekend wins in Michigan, Washington and Maine, the John Kerry campaign is looking to pick off its first wins in the South. Two new Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby polls (conducted Feb. 7-8; margin of error 4.5 percent) show Kerry with major leads over his southern competitors. Polllster John Zogby writes of Kerry's incredible mo', "This year's frontloaded primary schedule appears to have worked well in favor of the front-runner, as it apparently was intended to."
Other polls tell a similar story. Three American Research Group polls (conducted Feb. 4-6; margin of error 4 percent) released Saturday show Kerry with wide leads in Tenn., Va., and Howard Dean's must-win Wisconsin.
The main question is the race for second with Edwards and Clark close in the South.
The good news for Kerry is not confined to primary-state polls. Two new national polls show Kerry with a convincing lead for the Democratic nomination and in a strong position to take on President Bush. A Time/CNN poll (conducted Feb. 5-6; margin of error 5 percent) shows Kerry leading his nearest Democratic rival, Edwards, by 25 points and trailing President Bush in a hypothetical match up by just 2 points. As CNN notes about Kerry's numbers, it is a "big improvement from a month ago, when he trailed Bush 54-40 in a similar comparison." And in a Newsweek poll (conducted Feb. 5-6; margin of error 3 percent), Kerry actually leads President Bush by five percent Bush, 50 to 45 (and that is outside the margin of error!). The rest of the contenders trail Bush but they are generally making progress. As Newsweek comments about Edwards, for example, "Bush still leads in a race with Edwards by five points (49 percent to 44 percent), but that gap has been steadily closing since the end of last year when Bush's lead was twice that (51 percent to 40 percent)."
Tennessee (69 delegates)
Reuters/MSNC/Zogby – TN (2/7-8) (600 interviews)
Kerry 45
Edwards 21
Clark 19
Dean 5
Undecided factored out
ARG – TN 2/5-6 (600 interviews)
Kerry 32
Edwards 21
Clark 20
Dean 8
Undecided 17
Virginia (82 delegates)
Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby – VA 2/7-8 (500 interviews)
Kerry 47
Edwards 24
Clark 11
Dean 10
Undecideds factored out
ARG – VA 2/5-6 (600 interviews)
Kerry 35
Edwards 22
Clark 17
Dean 9
Undecided 15
Wisconsin (72 delegates)
ARG – WI 2/5-6 (600 interviews)
Kerry 41
Clark 15
Edwards 10
Dean 9
Undecided 21
National Polls
Time/CNN Poll 2/5-6 (377 interviews)
Kerry 43
Edwards 18
Clark 11
Dean 8
Sharpton 6
Undecided 8
Time/CNN hypothetical Presidential race (1000 interviews)
Bush 50
Kerry 48
Bush 52
Edwards 46
Bush 55
Clark 41
Newsweek 2/5-6 (383 interviews)
Kerry 48
Dean 13
Edwards 10
Clark 9
Sharpton 4
Undecided 14
Newsweek hypothetical Presidential race (1004 interviews)
Bush 45
Kerry 50
Bush 51
Clark 43
Bush 50
Dean 44
Bush 49
Edwards 44
Delegates Watch -- Numbers that Really Count: John Kerry has won 10 of the 12 states that have held primaries and caucuses so far. Superdelegates seem to be falling all over themselves to endorse him, too. On Monday, West Virginia Sen. Jay Rockefeller and New York Rep. Nita Lowey announced their support. According to CBS News' delegate count, Kerry now leads all contenders with 411 delegates. Closest to Kerry is Howard Dean with 210. Many of Dean's superdelegates are holding, for now at least, although AFSCME President Gerald McEntee has withdrawn his backing. John Edwards is in third with 118 and Wesley Clark next with 96. Al Sharpton, who came in second in Detroit on Saturday, now has 12 votes. (This count does not yet include Maine where Kerry won and Dean came in second in the Sunday caucuses.)
Total Delegate Count:
Kerry 411
Dean 210
Edwards 118
Clark 96
Sharpton 12
Lieberman 4
Gephardt 3
Kucinich 2
People-Powered Ads: Howard Dean has taken his grassroots politics to yet another level as he asks supporters to pick the ad that he hopes will help him to his first primary win in Wisconsin. Although it has spent millions of dollars on advertising, the Dean camp has not been able to come up with an ad that strikes a chord with voters, on the same level as John Kerry's "Del" ad (a spot that features one of Kerry's Vietnam buddies that was widely credited for his rebound in New Hampshire).
So after soliciting more than $1 million from supporters last week for an aggressive ad campaign in Wisconsin, Steve McMahon, Dean's media advisor, announced the campaign would turn to the grassroots again, but this time to help select a new grassroots-produced ad to air in addition to the campaign's paid media in the state.
The Dean media team filmed the ads in the "Switch 2 Dean" series last summer, when Dean was still at his peak. The three that were ultimately chosen by the campaign were ones they hoped would resonate with Wisconsin voters. "Wisconsin voters have traditionally responded to campaigns that speak to them on a personal level. They don't want glitz or prepackaged politicians; they want to hear from genuine people and honest leaders," McMahon said.
All three 30-second ads play well into Dean's idea of a people-powered campaign and the ability of "regular" Americans to "take back our country," a line Dean often repeats on the stump.
First up is Max, an African-American woman who has never been involved in a presidential campaign, but likes this guy [Dean]. "I may never be famous, and that's fine, but people are going to know I stood for something," she says. "My friends call me Max. I'm a claims adjuster and I'm taking back my country." Then there's Mike, a lifelong Republican, who just can't abide by Bush. "Dean is all for building alliances with Europe and Asia. I like his position on gun control. He was against the war. He's the guy who can beat Bush. How long a list do you want?" he asks. "I'm Michael Reinhardt. I'm a stockbroker and frankly, I'd like to take back my country."
And then there's Steve, who takes a swipe at Dean's main rival for the nomination, John Kerry. "Because I was originally from Massachusetts, I knew a little bit about John Kerry, more than any of the other candidates," he says, while wearing a Boston Red Socks hat. He then goes on to say that his beliefs were more in line with Dean's. "Most of the country thinks that it's all the same thing. Howard Dean is not all the same thing. My name's Steve. I just got laid off two weeks ago. I'm taking my country back."
If Steve makes it, it would be the first negative/comparative ad on Kerry in the 2004 presidential campaign. But, surely, not the last.
Voting will continue until midnight Monday and can be viewed at www.switch2dean.com.
Veepstakes Wiggle Room: It's standard presidential campaign protocol to deny any interest whatsoever in the number two slot on your party's ticket while still running for the top job. The conventional wisdom is that it's the kiss of death to admit you're not running to win. But last week Howard Dean said he'd do whatever it took to beat Bush, and this weekend, John Edwards, appearing on ABC's "This Week," for the first time left himself some wiggle room when asked if he's accept the number two spot.
As The Los Angeles Times reports: "Edwards repeated his statement that there were no circumstances under which he would campaign as vice president. But then he hedged.
"Here's the problem with the question," the North Carolina senator said. "You don't know what's going to happen a month, three months, six months from now. As I sit here today, I intend to fight with everything I've got to be the nominee."
Edwards' spokeswoman, Jennifer Palmieri, denied that Edwards had changed his tune on the VP slot. She told the L.A. Times that Edwards still expects to win the nomination. Surely, though, the Edwards campaign was not too upset over a CNN-Time poll that showed 71 percent of Democrats would be content with a Kerry-Edwards ticket this fall.
In other veepstakes news, U.S. News and World Report's "Washington Whispers" column contains the following item, which qualifies for the CBS News Political Unit's 2004 "Wishful Thinking" Award:
"Vice President Dick Cheney's political problems have folks in Tennessee gabbing about rumors that their own Bill Frist, the Senate majority leader, would be tagged to take the veep's job if the former Halliburton exec had to step aside. Both sides make the expected denials that anything's afloat."
In With the Money, Out With the Reform: Just months after taking office, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has hosted six fundraisers, raised $5.8 million, and established a name for himself as the most aggressive fundraising governor the state has seen, topping even Grey Davis. It's a far cry from his Oct. 7 recall election campaign days when he vowed to present a his "People's Reform Plan" that would keep the governor and legislative members from raising campaign funds while working on the budget, the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
And now, with only two weeks left before the deadline to introduce legislative bills, the governor has yet to submit a proposal or to select a lawmaker to support the bill. Legislators say they have heard nothing about the proposal. While administration officials say the governor is moving forward with the plan, others are skeptical of Schwarzenegger's credibility to carry out the reforms.
"I think you lose some of your moral suasion when you are forced to get money to run a media campaign," Sacramento State University political communications professor Barbara O'Connor told the Chronicle. "It's easy to make the claim as an outsider looking in."
Campaign finance reform was the focus of Schwarzenegger's fight to recall former Gov. Gray Davis, whose administration was viewed as "pay-to-play," the Chronicle reports. Schwarzenegger's fundraising event this week carries a minimum $50,000 price tag and will be hosted by the heir of pharmaceutical giant Johnson & Johnson. Meanwhile, the company has several lobbying interests before the state government.
Quote of the Day: "The media claims this contest is over. They say your voice and your vote don't count. They expect you to rubber stamp the choice of others. But you don't have to listen to them. Wisconsin: You have the power to keep this debate alive." – Howard Dean in Madison, Wisc. (CBS News)