Washington Wrap
Dotty Lynch, Douglas Kiker, Beth Lester, Clothilde Ewing and Jessica Shyu of the CBS News Political Unit have the latest from the nation's capital.
Monday's Headlines
* Super Tuesday State-by-State
* NASCAR Ads for NASCAR Dads
* House Democrats Look to 2006
* Schwarzenegger Courts California Democrats on Super Tuesday
Super Tuesday Look Ahead: 1,151 Delegates At Stake:
California: In California (370 delegates), two polls show John Kerry with a large lead. Although neither campaign has run paid ads in the state, Kerry is leading Edwards by more than two to one in the newest Field (60 to 19) and Los Angeles Times (56 to 24) polls. No endorsement from the L.A. Times, but Edwards did nab the all-important Modesto Bee. Kerry has gotten nods from the Los Angeles Daily News, the San Francisco Chronicle and the San Bernardino Daily Sun.
Field Poll 2/18-22 (958 interviews)
Kerry 60
Edwards 19
Kucinich 3
Sharpton 2
Los Angeles Times 2/18-22 (560 interviews)
Kerry 56
Edwards 24
Sharpton 4
Kucinich 1
Connecticut: In Connecticut (49 delegates), the draw of one-time hometown presidential candidate Sen. Joseph Lieberman kept the campaigning in the state fairly low-key. Although there are no public polls, high-profile endorsements from Reps. Rosa DeLauro and John Larson have shifted from Lieberman to Kerry. There are no paid ads in the state and neither Senator has campaigned in the state.
Georgia: Moving south, the race in Georgia (86 delegates) looks like a Kerry win. Although last week pollster John Zogby found a surging Edwards, the most recent polls from Zogby and the American Research Group show Kerry with at least a 10-point lead. The race may end up closer because Georgia is an open primary, allowing Edwards-skewing Republicans and independents to vote. Both campaigns have run "statewide" advertising buys in the state and campaigned there in the last week. Kerry won the endorsement of the Atlanta Journal Constitution.
Journal-Constitution/Zogby 2/27-29 (602 interviews)
Kerry 46
Edwards 27
Sharpton 4
Kucinich 1
Undecided 18
ARG – GA 2/27-28 (600 interviews)
Kerry 48
Edwards 38
Sharpton 4
Kucinich 1
Undecided 7
Maryland: In Maryland (69 delegates), public surveys show Kerry with a lead over Edwards of as much as 42 points. Both campaigns have visited the state but there is no paid advertising. Kerry has major endorsements from the Baltimore Sun and the state's top politicians (two senators and a handful of representatives), while Edwards has support from Rep. Albert Wynn. While Maryland bucked the trend in 1992 and voted for Paul Tsongas over Bill Clinton, as the Washington Post notes, it may be too large a gap for Edwards to overcome.
ARG – MD 2/22-25 (600 interviews)
Kerry 42
Edwards 35
Sharpton 2
Kucinich 1
Undecided 15
Mason-Dixon 2/23-25 (625 interviews)
Kerry 62
Edwards 20
Sharpton 3
Kucinich 1
Undecided 13
Massachusetts: Massachusetts (93 delegates). Kerry country. Enough Said.
Minnesota: Both Kerry and Edwards have spent time in Minnesota (72 delegates). While neither campaign has run ads in the state, both campaigns have reason to be confident. The Dean Minnesota contingent threw its support behind Edwards last week, but the Kerry team tells the Post that an internal poll has them confident. Endorsement watch: the St. Paul Pioneer Press goes for Kerry. There are no public polls.
New York: On the East Coast, New York (236 delegates) looks to be Kerry country. Both campaigns have campaigned heavily in the Empire State and have peppered the upstate region with television advertising. Pre-Super Tuesday polls show Kerry with a large lead (as much as 42 points in one) but all were conducted before the CBS News/WCBS/New York Times debate in New York City on Sunday. Hometown pol Rev. Al Sharpton is in single digits in statewide polls and it remains to be seen if he will be a significant factor. In endorsements, Kerry cleans up with nods from The New York Times, the New York Daily News, Newsday and the Albany Times Union.
Marist College 2/25 (417 interviews)
Kerry 64
Edwards 22
Sharpton 5
Kucinich 2
Undecided 7
ARG – NY 2/22-24 (600 interviews)
Kerry 54
Edwards 21
Sharpton 8
Kucinich 2
Undecided 11
Ohio: In the major general election battleground of Ohio (140 delegates), both Kerry and Edwards have brought a message of jobs, jobs, jobs. Late polls show Kerry with a lead, but Edwards has focused major resources in the state including a large advertising blitz. For his efforts, Edwards won the support of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Kerry, who also ran ads in the state, has campaigned heavily with the support of the organized, energized AFL-CIO, and won the endorsement of the Cleveland Plain-Dealer and the Akron Beacon Journal.
ARG – OH 2/22-24 (600 interviews)
Kerry 47
Edwards 26
Kucinich 11
Sharpton 1
Undecided 12
Rhode Island: In Rhode Island (21 delegates), there has not been a significant amount of presidential politics. Neither Edwards nor Kerry has campaigned in the state and no ads have aired. Rep. Patrick Kennedy switched from Gephardt to his father's candidate, Kerry, and early February poll showed the Massachusetts senator with a large lead.
Brown University 2/7-9 (285 interviews)
Kerry 70
Dean 11
Edwards 9
Clark 4
Undecided 4
Vermont: In former candidate Howard Dean's home base, Vermont (15 delegates) has not been a major focus or prize in this election. Edwards did not even apply to be on the ballot, believing the Governor would have it locked up. There have been no campaign visits, no advertising and no public polls. Some Dean advisers are trying to round up support for the former candidate but it remains to be seen how loyal voters will be to the still-on-the-ballot Dean or if they will defect to Kerry.
Bush Kicks Off Ads Campaign: On Thursday, the Bush-Cheney campaign plans to start spending its massive $105 million war chest in earnest with a $4.5 million ad campaign focusing on the president's conservative base and the television programming the campaign believes they watch: NASCAR, golf tournaments and cable news.
Last week, it was reported that Bush would start running ads in the wake of Super Tuesday. Bush, whose poll numbers have plummeted after months of battering by the Democratic presidential candidates has dominated newspaper headlines. The first wave of spots will be positive in nature and are sure to harp on the campaigns, "Steady Leadership in Changing Times" theme.
The AP reports that of the $4.5 million, more than half will go to ads on Fox News Channel, whose coverage, some television critics have alleged, tends to be pro-Bush. Other stations include CNN, MSNBC, Fox Sports Net (home of many NASCAR races), the Golf Channel (rich with rich, 45-year-old male viewers) and ESPN, with its crop of captive viewers in the 18 to 34 demographic.
Bush-Cheney also plans to run ads in Spanish on Hispanic channels to appeal to the nation's fastest-growing demographic group. It will buy ad time on Telemundo and Univision in New Mexico, Florida, Nevada and Arizona – all states that were narrowly divided in 2000 – all were separated by six percentage points or less -- and have large Hispanic populations.
The AP reports that polling shows that Republicans watch less broadcast TV than Democrats, which suggests that the best way to reach the GOP base is to target cable networks with high Republican viewership. Despite that, Bush-Cheney has bought ad time on 50 local broadcast markets in 17 states that were tight in 2000.
Democrats in '06: After a decade out of power, there are a number of independents and members of both the Democratic and Republican parties who say Democrats are unlikely to reclaim the House in November, reports The New York Times. As a result, some Democrats now see their immediate goal as gaining steam and narrowing the divide so they have a better shot of taking back the House in '06.
Although heartened that President Bush has been on the defensive recently, many believe that recruiting failures, fund-raising difficulties and redistricting issues (such as the Texas redistricting fiasco that they eventually lost) are significant factors working against them.
"I don't believe you can win back the House without candidates or money," said Rep. Thomas M. Reynolds, R-N.Y., and chairman of the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee. According to his count, 21 of the 40 Republicans he considers most open to challenge do not yet have Democratic candidates running against them, reports the Times.
But the Democrats are not giving up all hope. "We have, we think, some excellent candidates in some of the districts we must win," said Representative Steny H. Hoyer of Maryland, the House Democratic whip, who is closely involved in the party's political operations. "Do we have as many as we'd like? No. Have we raised as much money as we'd like? No. But do we have some very good candidates and are we working on getting more? The answer is emphatically yes."
Pumping Democrats: Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is hoping that Democrats heading to the polls on Tuesday to vote for the Democratic nominee will also vote for two major initiatives he is pushing, reports The Washington Post. California voters were attacked with a barrage of radio and television ads, taped phone messages to voters and a statewide bus tour he refers to as "The Road to Recovery Express,'' as Schwarzenegger pleaded with voters to pass propositions 57 and 58, part of his plans to eliminate the state's budget.
It has become increasingly clear that he will need the support of Democrats to pass the two propositions and he is counting on the bipartisan mood he established since taking office.
According to the The Los Angeles Times Schwarzenegger has rallied established Democrats, such as Sen. Dianne Feinstein; Secretary of State Kevin Shelley; regional representatives from La Raza and the NAACP and last week, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom hosted an event in support of 57 and 58, and First Lady Maria Shriver who also stumped for the measures with state Senate President Pro Tem John L. Burton, to his cause. And for added measure, the campaign even produced a 30-second advertisement, starring Feinstein, exclusively for the heavily Democratic, Bay Area media market. A 15-second version has appeared statewide.
According to the Post, passing propositions 57 and 58 will not solve all of California's money woes. But Schwarzenegger is calling them a very important step to California's economic recovery. "For the rest of the country, March 2 means Super Tuesday," he said. "For us, it means Super Comeback Tuesday because we know we're going to win this, even though it's a big struggle."
Quote of the Day: "Yes. Let me answer your question directly. First of all, I know John Kerry. I like him very much." – John Edwards on whether John Kerry had "enough Elvis" to beat George Bush. (CBS, WCBS-TV and New York Times debate)