Walmart's Sales Are Down...The Recession Is Over!

Is the recession over, Folks? It must be if Walmart's (WMT) sales declined during the fourth quarter at US stores -- the first time this has ever happened to the retail giant. This means that the holiday season was less than pleasant for the largest retailer on the world. Remember all of those stories about the Black Friday deals that Walmart planned and how it installed extra crowd control at its stores to quell rushing mobs? Apparently, it was all for naught, or at least not much.

So what if Walmart's earnings hit $7.3 billion for the quarter, a 13.8-percent increase from the same year-ago period? Who cares if the unemployment rate is still hovering around 10 percent? And don't pay any attention to news of rising inflation. The consumer is done looking for deals!

Expect the Nieman Marcus Christmas book to fly off the shelves and make a major comeback this year and its $100,000 custom-made Jaguar to sell out. Crowd control? Best to consider it at Saks Inc. (SKS) stores, where sales are turning around. Same-store sales rose seven percent at the luxury chain in January on top of a 9.9-percent rise in December. Competitor Nordstrom (JWN) posted a strong fourth quarter, with sales at stores open at least a year gaining 6.9 percent. Obviously, some shoppers are trading up.

In that vein, expect TJX Cos. (TJX), the owner of the discount-clothing Marshalls and T.J. Maxx chains to soon go down the tubes. It's 12 percent same-store sales gain in January was surely an illusion, as well as the retailer's strong holiday season.

And whatever you do, don't pay attention to those crazy dollar stores. Those chains are poised for growth, such as Dollar General (DG)'s grand plans to open 600 new units this year, likely in anticipation of a still-strapped consumer. Obviously, they don't know what they're talking about.