Virginia: Dead Meat Or Dead Heat?
If Sen. Chuck Robb manages to beat his GOP challenger, former Gov. George Allen, then the Democrats will be on their way toward control of the Senate.
That, says the Allen campaign, is one elephant-sized if.
Robb, who staggered to re-election in 1994 by defeating Ollie North, is battling with the Old Dominion State's top Republican heavyweight this time around. It's one of the nation’s more punishing Senate slugfests - with both national parties pouring in serious money and a full regalia of negative attacks.
“They’re giving Robb the name ‘most endangered Democrat,'” said Prof. Bob Holsworth, Director of Virginia Commonwealth University’s Center for Public Policy.
Of late however, Robb has clawed his way back in polls, his campaign says, on the strength of his proposals to strengthen public schools. Prior to October, Allen had cruised for months, with double-digit leads and a seeming padlock on political momentum.
Robb, whose personal peccadillos weren’t quite noxious enough for Virginians to reject him in favor of the less-than-beloved Ollie North, has a serious challenger on his hands this time.
“As soon as North lost in 1994, everyone assumed that Allen would be taking on Robb. It’s a great matchup,” Holsworth said.
Back in 1994 – when Republicans took control of the Congress – Robb survived what many called the run of his life. In Republican-leaning Virginia, in a GOP landslide year, he survived.
This year, the former Marine's mission will be even tougher, because the GOP is united. In ’94, powerful Washington Republicans (most notably Sen. John Warner, R-Va.) helped field independent candidate Marshall Coleman to siphon votes from the erstwhile Iran-Contra bagman. There is no such contempt for Allen, a well-respected political figure who experts credit with helping to revive the GOP statewide over the last 10 years.
“This is much more an issue-oriented, ideological campaign. In that way, it’s one of the more interesting campaigns across the country,” Holsworth said.
Up until very recently, Robb looked looked to be dead meat. But just this week, a new Richmond Times-Dispatch opinion poll showed a statistical dead heat. The survey showed Allen with a 45-42 percent lead over Robb. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. The poll also hinted that women, who lean Robb’s way on the issues of education, abortion, and gun control, could decide the race.
This latest poll may have some staying power, or it may just be anomaly. Most polling has shown Allen out in front. A Mason-Dixon poll released in late September showed Allen leading by 48-41 percent.
Even when it wasn't this tight, the race has always been harsh. In recent debates, the candidates have treated each other with thinly disguised contempt. And with a flotilla of "issue ads" flooding Virginia's airwaves, th campaigns have taken to daily accusing one another of "lies" and "distortions".
The Allen campaign is hammering away at Robb’s Clinton-friendly voting record in hopes that Virginia, which for the last ten years has leaned Republican, will respond.
“Chuck Robb has placed himself on the endangered list for his record in the U.S. Senate and his complete lack of vision for what he would do for the next six years,” said Allen campaign spokesman Tim Murtaugh. “He’s a proud Bill Clinton cheerleader.”
After their debate on Sept. 26, Allen said of Robb "he's voted with Clinton on many things that were just wrong."
Though Robb is being tied to Mr. Clinton on the policy front, to its credit the Allen campaign has shied away from dredging up the scandals that plagued Robb's 1994 campaign, thereby linking him by process of deduction to the Lewinsky affair.
Robb's campaign has fired back on education, the environment, and on gun control.
"I'm going to have to increase the volume and the passion," Robb said recently.
The results from recent polls have not made national Democrats any less wary. They are calling Robb’s re-election bid their absolute top priority.
“We have invested – and will continue to invest – significant resources. We spend as much if not more per voter in Virginia than we will in any other state,” said David DiMartino, spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
Nor have recent polls lessened the feeling among Republicans that Virginia will have two Republican senators come January of 2001.
"We’ve got the best candidate," said Murtaugh. "Gov. Allen’s vision for Virginia and America is getting through."
If Robb manages to pull this one off, he’ll truly solidify his reputation as an election-season miracle worker. And, if he goes back to the Senate, it will likely be a Democratic Senate.