Untrustworthy Eliza Can't Be Quiet

This analysis of "Survivor: Vanuatu"'s latest episode is by columnist Greg Feltes of CBS station WBBM in Chicago, who offers weekly commentary on the popular reality TV show.

He was born 31 years ago. That's really all she wrote for John Palyok.

The alliance forming this season is different from any we have ever seen. The older members of Lopevi bonded from day one and aren't budging, even if they have personal conflicts with one other. It is painfully obvious that the young members of Lopevi are going to get picked off one by one until the core five are left to fight among themselves. The only question now is the order in which they go.

His confrontation with Travis last week made him a bigger target than Brady.

Palyok could have at least delayed the inevitable if he hadn't aggressively questioned one of the leaders of the opposing alliance. He should have stayed quiet and tried to manipulate Brady into being the aggressor or at least sell Brady as being the bigger physical threat. He did neither.

Why Mia Galeotalanza is gone:

Her continued immaturity made members of her alliance question the viability of her long-term strategy and defect.

You saw it in her relentless eyerolling. She was a 30 year-old playing the game with a teenager mentality. Eliza saw this and betrayed her, although she returned to the fold out of desperate neediness. Lisa saw this and made the same stunning move against her.

She got schooled in the game and still didn't learn her lesson.

Bottom line, Mia got beat last week. Instead of realizing this and remaining quiet until a move could be made, Mia went off on a rather ludicrous tangent about Twila's alleged attempt to become a martyr. She should have shut up and been grateful that she got Eliza back. Instead, she resorted to juvenile personal attacks, which alienated a member of her own alliance.

Tribe Analysis - Lopevi:

• Brady, Age 33. It was a quiet week for Brady as John P. became the obvious target, thanks to his previous actions and his physicality. Now that his tribe has some fishing equipment, he has one last chance to shine and convince them that he should be kept over young John or Rory. I think he can outlast John, but it will be extremely difficult to oust Rory.
• John K, Age 22. John put a target on his back by winning the immunity challenge, but it's not as if he could gamble that he would survive without being the victor. However, this victory will stick in the back of their minds come merge time, when all immunity is individual. He did make himself useful by gathering that intelligence rather cleverly.
• Chad, Age 35. Chad had a quiet week as well, but had an impressive showing in the immunity challenge that should serve to reassure his alliance that he is in for the long haul.
• Chris, Age 33. Chris was the MVP of Lopevi this week. His calming down of Lea maintained a strong alliance, which can carry them if they don't screw it up by fighting with each other constantly.
• Lea, Age 40. Lea was excellent during the reward challenge. He might be loud, but his tribe respects him. He did however lose it with Rory whom he should have just ignored and dealt with later.
• Rory, Age 35. Stupid. Stupid. Stupid. Rory has to decide whether he cares more about personal integrity or a million dollars. If he is playing for personal integrity, he is doing well. If he is playing for a million dollars, he is failing big time. Due to his alliance's numbers, he has some time to rebuild his bridges, but he appears to be too proud to do so.
• Travis, Age 33. It was a quiet week for him as he managed to avoid being embroiled in any of the quarrels that came up.

• Eliza, Age 21.Eliza is headed for a deliciously ironic fate. She betrayed her tribe mates in episode one because she thought they were too young and indecisive and might target her. Eliza then came back into the fold this week only to see Lisa pull the same stunt that she did last week. Of course, Eliza will not notice this irony and go on a Mia-like rant, which should make her the next to go. She should have stuck with the older ladies who wouldn't have betrayed her if she had remained loyal.
• Ami, Age 31. She really backed the wrong horse and has the wrong attitude regarding what they are doing out there. Twila is about work ethic because shelter and food make them strong for challenges. Ami is about the experience, which doesn't translate into challenge wins. The braid-the-hair idea was ludicrous. Now, she has to play nice and hope that Eliza and Julie go first.
• Julie, Age 23. Julie is in the same boat as Ami. They both trusted people who would ultimately betray them. She needs to convince the others that Eliza is too annoying to keep around, so she can buy time and hope for a merge or twist.
• Leann, Age 35. After being targeted last week, Leann saw the unsuccessful bullseye shifted to Twila. This is good news, as the younger girls will likely continue to throw votes at Twila, which could figure in a tie-break scenario or have some other type of ramifications.
• Lisa, Age 44. Lisa's betrayal was a magnificent power move that significantly increased her chances of winning. She correctly figured out that there was no future with the younger girls who would have made her the first target once they got down to the end. Lisa also noted how tenuous her alliance was. Eliza's support was not a given and she used that to cut a better deal.
• Scout, Age 59. She had a really bad challenge and her age showed, which usually is a bad thing, but not this season. Unlike the controversial Twila, Scout has really assumed the mother role, which is a nice safety net.
• Twila, Age 41. The harshness and bitterness will haunt her if she makes it to the jury vote, but that is a long way off. The last chance at rebellion has been quashed and now it becomes about winning challenges to go into the merge with numbers, so they can pick off the guys. Twila has the strength and endurance to lead that effort. Being feminine is unnecessary.

If the women lose, I have to believe that Eliza is gone. No one trusts her and she can't stop talking. Julie hasn't really offended anybody and has just caught a couple of bad breaks with her weaker, disloyal alliance members. She should be safer than Eliza. On the male tribe, it's Brady or John K. on the block. I believe that Lopevi will finally realize that it does need some young, physical strength and cut Brady if necessary.

My current ultimate Survivor pick:
Travis or Chad. The duo is part of the most stable alliance in the game. Plus, they aren't as temperamental as Rory or Sarge and are physically stronger than Chris. They also have the advantage of the remaining intelligence from John on the girls, which will come in handy in a merge.

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BY GREG FELTES