U.N. Verdict On Iraq Elections

The United Nations was expected to report Thursday on Iraq's political future. The United States was reported ready to make major changes in its blueprint for handing over power to a new Iraqi government.

U.S. and Iraqi officials were awaiting an announcement later Thursday by U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan on the feasibility of holding legislative elections here before June 30, as demanded by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Husseini al-Sistani and others in the influential Shiite clergy.

The Bush administration hopes Annan will say that elections are impossible by June 30 and also endorse the idea of extending and expanding the U.S.-picked Iraqi Governing Council so it can take interim control of the country on July 1.

The United States is insisting on handing over power at the end of June and transferring considerable responsibility for internal security to the Iraqis.

The Bush administration wants to end the occupation well ahead of the November presidential election in the United States to minimize Iraq as a campaign issue.

U.S. officials assume Annan will announce that he does not believe early elections as demanded by the Shiite clergy are feasible — echoing the U.S. position.

Annan hinted as much in an interview with a Japanese newspaper.

"There seems to be a consensus emerging that elections are essential and everyone would want elections," Annan told the daily Yomiuri.

"But at the same time, there seems to be a general acceptance of the fact that it is not going to be possible to arrange an election between now and the end of June."

However, U.N. diplomats said the U.N. envoy to Iraq, Lakhdar Brahimi, will not recommend what kind of transitional body should run Iraq once the U.S.-led coalition transfers sovereignty.

The U.S. has said that a lack of an accurate census and other logistical problems make an early election impossible. U.S. officials are also worried that in the confusion of a rushed vote, radical Islamic candidates, or even former Baath party members, might win.

The United States had planned to hold 18 regional caucuses throughout Iraq to select members of a new legislature, which would in turn name a government to take power July 1.

However, the Shiite demands and growing opposition among Iraqi leaders to the caucus idea has thrown that plan into doubt.

In Washington, a senior U.S. official said Wednesday that the Bush administration was considering a major shift in the plan, possibly extending and expanding the U.S.-appointed Governing Council so it can take temporary control of the country on July 1.

The council would then rule the country until a legislature could be elected, the U.S. official said on condition of anonymity.

Iraqi officials are divided over the issue, with some pushing for early elections and others proposing a national conference to select a leadership.

On Thursday, Ahmad al-Barak, a Shiite council member and coordinator of the Iraqi Bar Association, told reporters after meeting with al-Sistani in Najaf that the Shiites were hoping for an early election but would be willing to wait a few more months if Annan recommends against a vote before June 30.

"I think that elections can be held after five months from now and in that case we have no problem," al-Barak said. "Power could be transferred to the Iraqi people through the Governing Council or any other body which will take the responsibility to make the right preparations for the elections."

Other Shiites have said that any expansion of the Governing Council must respect the current alignment of power. The Shiites, believed to make up about 60 percent of Iraq's 25 million people, hold 13 of the 25 council seats.

The New York Times reports some Shiite clergy have proposed holding early elections only in the Shiite and Kurd areas of Iraq, which are relatively quiet, and not in the volatile Sunni "triangle."

But U.S. officials are worried that partial elections would have the appearance of disenfranchising the Sunni minority, which is already worried about its position in the new Iraq.

Al-Sistani's has also objected to how an interim government would authorize U.S. troops remaining in the country after July 1.

A separate debate has emerged over Iraq's interim constitution. Some hard-liners are pushing to make Islamic law the basis of that document, but chief U.S. administrator L. Paul Bremer says he will block any such move. He alone approves Iraqi laws.

If the U.S. revises its postwar plan in the face of Shiite objections, it will be the second time.

A blueprint outlined last year called for Iraqis to draft a new constitution and elect a new government before the return of power. However, al-Sistani insisted that the constitution be drafted by elected representatives — a process that Washington believed would take too long. That formula was then scrapped in favor of the now-threatened caucus plan.