Trying To Read Rudy

"Nobody who isn't writing a political novel could have predicted how this race would play out," marveled Nelson Warfield Thursday. He's a Republican consultant who, like much of the political world, is keeping a close watch on the latest twists and turns in the New York Senate race.

Now that Rudy Giuliani has announced that he and his wife, Donna Hanover, are seeking a separation, and now that Hanover has chimed in with a complaint about an alleged affair Giuliani had with a staff member, what's next? The only consensus is, there's no consensus.

Will the mayor drop out? "I don't think anybody knows that. I don't think even he knows that," suggested Jennifer Duffy, the Senate editor for the Cook Political Report. She figures the mayor's in a holding pattern for several days, an opinion supported by Giuliani's own comments Thursday. "You make decisions when you have to make them," he told a badgering press. "I don't have to make it now."

From our listening post in New York, much of the conventional wisdom says Giuliani will have to drop out of the race. And there have been media reports that he is leaning strongly towards doing so. A wire report quoted an unnamed source, reputedly close to the mayor, as saying: "His heart, his soul, his body are not in this thing." Giuliani himself has made it clear he has more on his mind than his political future. "I'm not thinking about politics," he told reporters during his pained press conference Wednesday. "Politics comes at least second, maybe third, maybe fourth."

If it continues to languish in any place other than first, he's likely to drop out. And there are plenty of people who think he should. "If he continues as a Republican candidate, the biggest beneficiary is Hillary Clinton," asserted Warfield. "You can't think of any bold policy positions that Giuliani has staked out other than not being Hillary Clinton. And this personal turmoil blurs the sharp contrast between Hillary and Rudy."

Democratic consultant Hank Sheinkopf agrees. For Giuliani to win, he said, the mayor "had to continue to be Rudy the good, the fighter for values that matter to people." But Donna Hanover upset that apple cart when she accused the mayor of having an affair with a member of his staff. Giuliani denies the affair, but Sheinkopf said Hanover's announcement "makes him into a cheat and a liar."

Other observers think the mayor will fare just fine if he stays in the race. Some note that Hillary Clinton is in no position to reap benefits from Giuliani's personal troubles. Thanks to her husband, the significance of any personal indiscretions by Giuliani is diminished. President Clinton, emerging bent, but not broken, from the Monica Lewinsky mess, "really lowered the bar for this kind of stuff," said Duffy. And attention spans are short - by November, today's excitement may seem like day old bread.

"By all logcal thinking, and by the ordinary rules of politics, Rudy would probably drop out," said Rep. Peter King, a Long Island Republican, himself rumored as a possible candidate if Giuliani quits the race. "But what makes Rudy Rudy is that he marches to his own drummer."

"My gut says he stays in," said Warfield. "I think the way the man is built requires him to stay." Duffy agrees. "I think this is an ego thing with him," she remarked. "He cannot step away from a challenge to [Hillary Clinton]."

Another factor is the Republican establishment, who may want to put Giuliani and his soap operas behind them. But, "Rudy's not the type of guy you go to and put pressure on," King noted. He could as easily scorn and spite the advisers as heed their counsel.

For now, almost no one in Albany or Washington wants to interfere. Among U.S. House and Senate Republicans, said Republican consultant Charles Black, "nobody is even thinking of intervening or suggesting what he should do. The consensus is they're pulling for him and hoping he can run."

Meanwhile, the guessing game continues. One state Republican aide pointed to new ads the Giuliani campaign is buying next week, and fund-raising and campaign events that are still scheduled. "The mayor's actions have always spoken louder than his words," the aide said. For now, those actions will have to supply the plot for the season's most improbable political novel.