Trouble Spots For Dubya

If you were to call central casting and ask for someone who embodied the Washington, trans-partisan, opinion-shaping establishment, they'd send over David Gergen, the message-guru to both Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, pundit extraordinaire.

Here's Gergen's take on the challenge ahead for the President-elect: "George W. Bush faces possibly the toughest beginning of any presidency in modern times. He has a country which is badly divided, he's got an opposition which feels extremely bruised by the process, many are angry. A Congress that is closely divided. He himself is not in the highest standing with the entire public (and) there's some questions about his capacity."

Well, with expectations that low, Bush is bound to succeed.

The circumstances of Bush's election, of course, are traumatic and weird. But the condition of the country is robust, and that's more important. Unlike other modern presidents-elect, Bush does not have to deal with, say, a divisive war, a Cold War, race riots, recession, or a public health epidemic. He's got as good a chance as most.

But there are obviously lots of potholes. The biggest ones are always unseen. Nonetheless, here's my list of the Top Ten Trouble Spots for Bush.

• 10. Confirmation Scandal. There's going to be one - you know it, I know it, and Bush knows it. It's only a question of who and what. The truncated transition only increases the probability of a juicy story. It may be one of the old standards - nanny problems, real estate loans, whiskey, or dirty videotapes. Hopefully, it will be something brand new. But it's a guarantee that sometime before the 4th of July you'll read a sentence like, "President Bush had to spend precious political capital in the crucial early days of his Administration pushing Harold W. Schindeldecker through the Senate."
• 9. Confirmation Scandal, Part II - Supreme Court. Bush is going to get the "opportunity" to nominate at least one Supreme Court Justice, probably more. It doesn't matter whom or when, it's going to be revenge time for the Democrats. I say Bush's first choice is going down.
• 8. The Ballots. Lots of scholars, reporters, and hacks are going to trying to count the Florida "undervote" ballots. Some counts will show that Al Gore won. That's a bad thing.
• 7. Neil Bush. Remember the other Bush brother, the one who didn't botch the Florida job? Neil Bush was the one mixed up in some S&L trouble when his Dad was president. Well, where has he been all year? In cold storage with Roger Clinton? Something's fishy.
• 6. 2002. If the political cycle runs is usual course, Republicans will get creamed in the 2002 mid-term elections. They'll probably lose control of at least one branch of Congress. If so, Bush gets the blame, eats the crow, and makes even more speeches about bipartisanship.
• 5. John McCain. It's unclear how he'll do it, but McCain is going to find a way to get back at Dubya for South Carolina and other assorted offenses. Maybe it's wishful thinking, but McCain seems to be the kind of guy who believes in the old Sicilian adage, "Revenge is a dish better served cold." In this case, it will probably be served with a side order of campaign finance reform.
• 4. Making Money in Washington. In the world of lobbying, public affairs, grassroots organizing, influence peddling, fund-raising, and propaganda, it is far easier to make money being against things than for things. This is true for both parties and all special interest groups. Of course, the Democratic apparatus will fire up against Bush. But there is real money to be made by the far right, too. They've lost archenemy Bill Clinton. Something needs to pay the bills at the direct mail shops. So there will be an expensive "Keep Bush Right" campaign. In fact, it has already started. This week, an ex-Dole operative, and ex-Forbes operative, and an ex-Buchanan operative launched a group called the Issues Management Center that will try to hold Bush to the ideological line, and perhaps make a dollar or two along the way. More to come.
• 3. The Hammer. By now, it's fully accepted wisdom that Bush will have more trouble with House Republican Whip Tom "The Hammer" DeLay than with any single Democrat. DeLay is extremely conservative and extremely uncompromising. There is no force in the House or the Republican Party that can effectively squeeze him, while he seems able to squeeze many House Republicans. He operates at a different octave of partisanship than the rest of the congressional leadership in both parties. He's pretty scary.
• 2. The Economy. If it goes south, Bush is toast - period.
• 1. The Enemy. There is none - and that is precisely the problem. Every great politician needs a great enemy. Churchill had Hitler. Kennedy had Khrushchev. Even Poppy had Saddam. Bill Clinton was nothing until he had Newt Gingrich to push around. And he really flourished with Ken Starr. Who will be Bush's nemesis? Tom Daschle? Dick Gephardt? I don't think so. How about Hillary? Or maybe Tom DeLay...