Tiny State, Big Race
In Rhode Island’s marquee battle for the U.S. Senate, issues, history, and personality will all be in play.
GOP Sen. Lincoln Chafee and Democratic Rep. Bob Weygand, who are locked in a tight race, are steeling themselves for a rough-and-tumble six weeks before Election Day.
Chafee, 47, is waging a battle to fill his late father’s shoes. His father – Sen. John Chafee – died last year, and was a respected political figure among Rhode Islanders as well as colleagues from both sides of the Senate aisle.
Weygand, 52, is a well-liked politician who has never been afraid of a tough campaign fight. He is hoping to return the seat to the Democrats.
“On a personal level … they do not dislike each other. They’re both family men. They have differences, but they are political,” Burke Sarno, Chafee campaign spokesman, told CBSNews.com this week.
In their first face-to-face meeting, taped Friday for a Sunday broadcast throughout the tiny Ocean State, both men pledged not to air negative attack ads.
Because the race is so competitive, however, both campaigns say soft-money “issue ads” will likely add a measure of venom to the fall push. The campaigns say that, while they will defend themselves against negative attacks, they will also try to keep the focus on issues. To that end, the candidates have scheduled eight televised debates before Nov. 7.
“Some of the issues are health care, the economy, early childhood education, and a patients’ bill of rights,” said Terry Donilon, Weygand’s campaign spokesman. “We want to see and hear where Sen. Chafee really is on these issues.”
Weygand is recognized as a formidable debater; he expects to capitalize on the heavy schedule. And while recent statewide opinion polls show Weygand down against Chafee, both campaigns indicate that, since the state’s late Sept. 19 primary – when Weygand finally dispatched Democratic rival Richard Licht – the race has tightened.
“It’s going to be a real race. Support for Weygand will build, but I’m not sure if he’s going to win,” said Martha Moakley, professor of political science at the University of Rhode Island.
His debating prowess aside, another major factor that could play in Weygand’s favor is the overwhelming majority of Democrats in Rhode Island, when compared to Republicans, Moakley said.
There are about 250,000 registered Democrats in the state, but only 60,000 registered Republicans. However, Moakley was quick to point out, the state’s largest voting bloc consists of about 300,000 independents.
“Because we don’t have a strong Republican party, voters are encouraged to vote independent,” she said, citing a state law allowing primary voters to disaffiliate their party allegiance after casting a primary vote.
The state’s unique demographics make fr a less-than orthodox strategy for Chafee, Moakley added, saying “It’s amazing, because the ads the Republicans have paid for talk about how Chafee goes against the Republican party. They’re touting him for independent voters.”
The Chafee campaign denies any irony in that tactic.
“He has a (high) rating of voting against his party in congressional legislation. We’re not wearing it on our sleeve … but his voting record prooves that he’s his own man who votes his conscience,” Sarno said, adding, “It’s always a worry, anytime a Republican runs in Rhode Island. But it is a very independent-thinking state. The voters vote their conscience. They vote for the man, not the ticket.”
As Sarno suggests, voters are going to be looking at the personalities of the two candidates, perhaps even more so than the issues.
“You can’t deny that personality does factor in to the equation,” said Sarno, who said that Weygand “Has a more polished, Madison Avenue type of style,” whereas Chafee’s is a “more folksy type of style.”
Moakley said personalities could be the deciding factor. With the father-son dynamic weighing so heavily on Chafee’s candidacy, and with the Rhode Island GOP’s history of going against the partisan grain, it’s hard to imagine otherwise.