Thompson Shakes Up GOP Race
Fred Thompson's expected entry into the tight Republican presidential race is drawing crucial strength from conservatives and older men, vaulting him into the thick of the GOP nomination fight, an Associated Press-Ipsos poll says.
That may be bad news for GOP contender Mitt Romney.
The poll shows former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani with 27 percent; Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., at 19 percent; Thompson essentially even with McCain at 17 percent; and Romney at 10 percent.
Thompson, who has sandwiched an acting career around a largely anonymous eight years as a Tennessee senator, has impressed many despite not yet formally entering the 2008 race. One in four of his supporters cite his strong character, more than any other GOP candidate.
Jim VandeHei, executive editor of ThePolitico.com, told CBS Early Show co-anchor Julie Chen that the strength of Thompson's showing — particularly among white men in the conservative base — comes "because Republicans in general are just not satisfied with the top-tier candidates on the Republican side. Right now, Republicans just want something, someone they think can win.
"They're enamored with the idea of Thompson the Concept," he said. "The question is, what happens when he becomes Thompson the Candidate, and people really start to take a closer look at his record and about his ability to communicate with voters and what he brings to the table?
"Everybody's comparing him right now to Ronald Reagan," VandeHei said. "But he wasn't a terrific senator, he didn't really stand out in any real clear way when he was in the Senate. So the question is, has he grown a lot outside of office? Can he step in and fire up conservatives and make them think he can win?"
The survey also shows the top Democratic contender, Hillary Rodham Clinton, with 33 percent, down slightly from the last AP-Ipsos poll in March (when she stood at 38 percent). Her margin over Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill. (steady with 21 percent) has eroded slightly since the last poll. Just behind Obama is non-candidate Al Gore with 20 percent (up from 14 percent in the last poll). Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards came in fourth, at 12 percent (up from 10 percent last time).
Clinton has twice the support from women — a block that accounted for 54 percent of the vote in 2004's key Democratic primaries — as her nearest rival, Obama, but dwindling strength among men.
Despite Gore's popularity and the "Draft Gore" initiatives brewing among the grassroots, VandeHei doubts that the former Vice President — who won the popular vote in 2000 and lost Florida's electoral votes in a disputed election — will throw his hat in the ring.
"He's clearly tempted; his numbers are pretty good, he's coming off a very good run having had the documentary ("An Inconvenient Truth") and having had a lot of public attention lavished on him because of his role in talking about global warming. At the end of the day, though, he knows that he doesn't really like the political game that you have to engage in to win the presidency.
"Al Gore's going to sit back and see what happens with this field. If it looks like Democrats are happy with Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards at the top of the ticket four months from now, like they are right now, I do not think he will jump in."