Theater Of The Absurd
For the New York State GOP, it's less than two weeks until opening night at the party convention. And for one and all the question remains: Who will command center stage when the curtain is raised?
Right now, all bets are off on New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani's Senate candidacy. The series of bombshells dropped in the last couple of weeks - his prostate cancer, his "very close" friendship with a woman not his wife, his announcement that he and wife Donna Hanover would pursue a legal separation, and his wife's return shot alluding to an affair between the mayor and a former staff member - make it so.
But this reporter's guess - and underscore, please, the word "guess" - is that Rudy's statement at a campaign fund-raiser this week that he was "inclined" to stay in the race is more than a scripted bone to throw to the fat cat donors.
This week's Quinnipiac College poll shows the mayor holding steady with 43 percent to Hillary Clinton's 44 percent, virtually unchanged from the poll's May 1 numbers, so he may not have lost that much amid all the scandal. Such knowledge may strengthen his resolve, as could sheer contrariness. What would be more quintessentially "Rudy," after all, than flying in the face of all the conventional wisdom and punditry that says he'll quit?
Of course, Giuliani's cancer is the big unknown in all of this. Prostate cancer, even when caught in its early stages, is no trivial disease. (And the mayor's Bullworth-esque turn with his personal life hints that he, himself, is hardly taking it lightly.) If Giuliani decides to stay in but is forced into a longer convalescence than he intends, a loss to Clinton could finish him in the Republican Party. In hindsight, such heroics could very well look selfish to party leaders.
And the possibility even exists that Giuliani has already made a decision to quit the race, but wants to make the announcement at the time and place of his choosing - rather than be pushed into it by leaks and rumors.
But boy, will we miss him if he bows out.
I write this not out of any partisan preference. My allegiance here is strictly to my craft. Because the race between Hillary and Rudy - two politicians with the first-name recognition of A-list Hollywood stars - promises to be the stuff of a reporter's fondest dreams. Close watchers of political theater can see from the previews alone that this is the kind of show that doesn't open every day, or even every four years. The subplots are many, the undercurrents at times dark and even Shakespearean. When characters of such outsize ambitions tread the boards, you get the strong sense that the victor will be the last figure left standing when the curtain falls. Lady Macbeth versus Iago in a steel-cage death match.
Behind the scenes, though, Republican Party honchos more concerned with winning than supplying drama are quickly and quietly looking for an understudy from the chorus, just in case. A couple of minor players wai in the wings, so let's take a quick glance at the program.
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Another Long Island Congressman, Peter King, is also itching to get into the act. He's stated his intention to do so if Rudy exits and is now actively trying to drum up support for his candidacy. You may recall the role Rep. King played in the New York Republican primary, when he defied the state G.O.P. establishment by coming out hard for John McCain. Like McCain, he's a maverick, a fact that might not play so well in a party that has at times been split over Giuliani's lone-wolf tendencies.
Who else? None but long shots. Gov. Pataki's name continues to be mentioned, but it's unlikely at best that he will stoop to conquer Hillary. For one, he's already said no to the prospect. For another, he's in an executive position-the job some say Giuliani
really wants - and as the Empire State's top Republican, he no doubt relishes his producer's role. Republican National Committee member and fundraiser Georgette Mosbacher has heard her name floated and for now looks to remain a backer - a Rudy backer at that. And Theodore Forstman, a multi-millionaire investo, philanthropist, and Republican donor announced early this week that he would not seek the nomination.
And so it goes, as the dramatic spectacle that has transfixed reporters and voters alike fast turns into theater of the absurd for New York Republicans.