The Race For Second Place

By David Paul Kuhn,
CBSNews.com Chief Political Writer

Kerry won five of the seven Democratic contests Tuesday night, but was deprived of a sweep that would have virtually assured him the Democratic nomination. Sen. Edwards of North Carolina and former Gen. Clark kept their campaigns alive by winning a state each.

Edwards took South Carolina by a commanding margin, about 15 percent over Kerry. Clark won Oklahoma by little more than a thousand votes over Edwards. Both Edwards and Clark staked their candidacies on the states they won. Each will now fight to be the challenger to Kerry. Soon enough, there can be only one.

"As long as John Kerry has two people vying for the same votes, that being Clark and Edwards, John Kerry can continue to go up the middle and do well," said Donna Brazile, Vice President Al Gore's campaign manager in 2000.

"Kerry's the only person running a national campaign. No question: Kerry is in the driver's seat," Brazile said.

Narrowing the field, Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut abandoned his candidacy Tuesday night after failing to gain any delegates. To do so, the former running mate of Al Gore had to win 15 percent of the votes in a state. As expected, he did not.

"Joe Lieberman finally read the tea leaves, his exit was inevitable," said political analyst Stu Rothenberg, editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report. "We'll see whether John Edwards or Wesley Clark can appeal to those former Lieberman supporters, but there is not a huge reservoir for other candidates to go after."

Like Lieberman, Howard Dean also failed to gain any delegates in the seven primaries and caucuses that crisscrossed the country. Dean's disclaimer is that in the past week he hardly campaigned in the seven states. He also ceased all advertising.

"Dean withdrew from those states in the closing days but he competed, he had resources, he had staff," Brazile said of the former frontrunner. "The voters knew his name, they knew he was on the ballot. The fact is that he decided to lower expectations because he suspected the loss Tuesday."

Brazile thinks Dean's "cherry picking of states" allows him to campaign on even if he has little to no chance of becoming the nominee.

"Dean can continue to lose and pick up supporters and money because he is bringing new people into the process. No question though, he needs to win," the Democratic strategist continued. "He'll know if the patient is unable to recover soon. He's a doctor - he'll know."

With still less than 10 percent of the delegates decided, Dean will attempt to recover in the Washington State primary on Saturday.

"Dean is a candidate now without a movement," Rothenberg said. "He acknowledges that he doesn't have the firepower or money by sitting out this week's contest and the idea that he can jumpstart his race over this week or next week is really mind boggling."

By Dean's own admission, the Feb. 17 Wisconsin Primary is a state the former Vermont governor has to do well in, in order to be considered a viable candidate. Nevertheless, many experts agreed that it is already too late.

"Dean's plane is running on an empty tank of gas and so is his message. He is clearly finished," Republican pollster Linda DiVall said. "Clark and Edwards have to win Virginia and Tennessee (Feb. 10) and build on that. The question strategically is whether they decide to go up north to Michigan and compete against Kerry."

This Saturday's Michigan primary carries the most delegates yet contested, 128. Kerry should win there; he has to. An upset by Clark or Edwards, or either one placing well above the other, would decide the number two, in this eventual two-man race.

"To the extent that Kerry has a challenger after today, it would appear to be John Edwards or Wesley Clark," said Democratic pollster Ed Reilly, a former senior aide in Dick Gephardt's presidential campaign. "The question is: Where are they going next to plant the flag?"

"If Kerry has an equally strong finish in Michigan, then it is unclear how Edwards or Wesley Clark are going to stop Kerry as we continue on from here," Reilly added, pointing out that not only did Kerry win five states but that he carried a large majority of the delegates.

Kerry won Arizona, Missouri, Delaware, New Mexico and North Dakota on Tuesday, pushing his delegate total to 200 out of the 2,162 needed for the nomination.

"Edwards' and Clark's campaigns still have a huge challenge catching John Kerry because he is uniting the Democratic Party in Missouri and Arizona and those are the largest states tonight," said Professor Merle Black, an Emory University political scientist.

"Kerry claims the momentum because he didn't have to win South Carolina or Oklahoma. Those are states that would be very low priority in the fall for a Democratic campaign because their past history suggests a strong Republican tendency, and if Bush loses those states then he loses everything," Black continued.

But by all estimates, President Bush will not lose in those conservative states. The 2004 presidency will hinge on the victor of states like Missouri or Ohio. While Edwards' campaigns as the candidate who can win the South, the question is whether he or Clark can win anywhere else. To compete with Kerry, they will have to.

"There is no question that if Kerry locks up Michigan next week and rolls through some of the last states going into Super Tuesday, he is the nominee by March 2," said Brazile. "Gen. Clark and John Edwards will take their campaigns to Virginia and Tennessee, and only one person is going to emerge as the alternative to Kerry, and I think soon we will know which one."