The Main Event

By David Paul Kuhn,
CBSNews.com Chief Political Writer

Through tens of millions of dollars in campaign ads, a summer of likely bitter party attacks followed by the party conventions and sure-to-be-heated debates, and on to Judgment Day, the country can expect a war over legacy.

"I don't think Americans are ready for how nasty this campaign will be," said John Weaver, who was the political director of Sen. John McCain's 2000 run for the presidency against George W. Bush. "The bases will of course always blame the other side, but I am curious to see how that 10 or 15 percent in the center reacts."

In the red corner: President Bush, who will attempt to redefine himself (hard choices in dangerous times, bringing America out of an economic slump, consistent and dependable leadership). The Bush campaign will also try to redefine Kerry (Massachusetts liberal, waffling on issues, not worth changing horses in the middle of a tough race; that race being the war on terrorism).

In the blue corner: Kerry counters. Jab. Jab. Jab. President Bush the polarizer; the unilateralist; the commander in chief who "dresses up on aircraft carriers" to feign national security muster. Kerry, by contrast, the veteran who has sustained gunfire; soon all of America will know of his three-purple hearts earned in Vietnam.
"Kerry's got to tell the public his story, to tell his story in such a way as the heroic Kerry we saw in Vietnam and the morally fearless Kerry we saw after the war," Weaver said. "From the Bush perspective, they are going to take playbooks out of previously successful attempts to define their opponents, in an attempt to broadly define Kerry as a liberal, sighting specific votes or linkages."

After a hurried Democratic primary race, where the candidates railed against Mr. Bush much more than each other, the president will now have his turn. The first wave of Mr. Bush's advertising will air on Thursday, $4.5 million worth for a dozen key states. And the process of reframing a president begins.

To stop him, Kerry needs cash – and a lot of it. As of Jan. 31, President Bush had $104.4 million in his campaign treasury while Kerry had only $2.1 million.

"Kerry needs to raise a money but he has forgone public financing so he can keep going back to the well," Republican pollster and strategist Glen Bolger said. "And given how Democrats feel about President Bush, he should be able to."

A sign of just how deep that Democratic well of fundraising is this election year: Kerry's campaign raised more than $1 million over the Internet in the first 24 hours following his decisive victories Tuesday night.

And Kerry should get plenty of help from his onetime rivals. His top challenger, Sen. John Edwards, will help the de facto Democratic nominee raise money; even the insurgent but not resurgent Howard Dean will likely assist Kerry.

Dean raised about $50 million through February, although he spent it all to no avail and ended his campaign in debt. Kerry hopes to re-tap this fountain of liberal cash, but it will not be easy.

"Edwards' money came from trial lawyers and they are sophisticated givers, they'll support Kerry," said Weaver, who became a Democrat following the Bush campaign attacks on McCain in 2000 that eventually pushed the Arizona senator out of the race. "The Dean money is more problematic. It depends a lot on what Dean does but with John's donors, they never translated to Bush.

"But, I'll tell you this," Weaver continued. "The Bush campaign was willing to do nearly anything against us to be elected, and one assumes they will be willing to do practically anything to be reelected."

Yet the Bush campaign's first ads are soft. They are intended to reintroduce the president to the American people before he goes on the offensive against Kerry.

The ads have a warm tone. One speaks of "the last few years" and how they have "tested America in many ways." It shows stock quotes and images of Sept. 11, 2001, and references freedom, faith, families and sacrifice, saying, "President Bush, steady leadership in times of change."

A second Bush ad opens with an image of a diner at night, a neon sign, a street in any town USA. It speaks of the "entrepreneurial spirit" and cuts to an optimistic Mr. Bush lifting his right hand in certitude and saying, "I know exactly where I want to lead this country." Beside his wife Laura (a red, white and blue hue over all), the president says that Americans are "hardworking, decent and generous people." The ad closes with Mr. Bush (red tie and blue suit) walking confidently with the White House pillars behind him.

The liberal grassroots organization MoveOn.org is ready to rebut, since the Kerry campaign is, as of yet, unable. It will begin a $1.9 million campaign criticizing President Bush on the economy, airing ads also in key battleground states beginning on Thursday.

This $1.9 campaign comes from the $10 million that the organization raised with an average contribution of $60, according to MoveOn. Billionaire George Soros and Peter Lewis, chairman of Progressive Insurance, then pledged an additional $5 million.

The first MoveOn ad is already widely known. Without dialogue, it shows children toiling in factories (blonde little girl at an assembly line, black boy working in a tire factory) and soon brandished across the screen is, "Guess who's going to pay off President Bush's $1 trillion deficit."

A second ad shows a working class guy, a family man. He tosses his bills and says, "Times are tough," then looks at his sleeping wife and children as the voiceover says, "When it comes to choosing between corporate values and family values, face it, George Bush is not on our side."

In private, Mr. Bush sees Kerry as "a tough and hard-charging opponent," The Washington Post reported on Wednesday. And until Kerry can charge at the president, financially that is, the Democratic candidate will rely on groups like MoveOn.

"Money spent by these third party groups is never as effective as money spent by the campaigns themselves, but it is still noise," Bolger said. "We don't have groups that are going to go back against the Democratic groups like MoveOn.org, so the Bush campaign is going to have to fight a two-front war with these groups on one side, and the Kerry campaign on the other."

By David Paul Kuhn