The Great Divide

As has been the case with so much of what has happened since the November election, Americans are divided on the Florida Supreme Court’s decision ordering a manual inspection of all ballots cast in Florida that did not register a vote for president.

Fifty-two percent of Americans interviewed this weekend in a CBS News poll approve of that decision, and 44 percent disapprove. Reaction falls along party lines; 75 percent of Republicans disapprove, and 79 percent of Democrats approve.

FL. SUPREME COURT RULING FOR MANUAL RECOUNTS
	Approve	Disapprove
	52%	44%

The political divisions that have existed all along in evaluations of the election continue, though Republicans and Democrats do agree on the need for a more accurate voting system.
THE FLORIDA VOTE COUNT

Americans continue to be skeptical about the fairness of the vote count in Florida. They have doubts about the certified vote count, as well as what the final count may be. And they continue to question who actually got the most votes in that state.

IS CERTIFIED VOTE FAIR AND ACCURATE?
	Yes	No
	49%	46%

There is continued confusion over whom more voters in Florida actually intended to vote for – 41 percent say more intended to vote for Vice President Al Gore, 38 percent say more intended to vote or Texas Governor George W. Bush. But one in five aren’t sure. Those paying the closest attention to the post-election news are more convinced of a Gore victory in Florida. By 46 percent to 36 percent, they say more voters in Florida intended to support Al Gore.

THE POLITICS OF CHOOSING FLORIDA’S ELECTORS

Whatever happens, there is a feeling that politics may be playing too much of a role in the decisions being made about this election. While the battle over legislative and judicial turf rages, Americans are not thrilled with the behavior of either branch in Florida.

LEGISLATURE CHOOSING ELECTORS
	Approve	Disapprove
	35%	58%

The courts do not fare much btter. Well over half the public – 61 percent - thinks political interests have been motivating the various courts involved in the dispute. Fewer than a third feel that the courts have been objectively interpreting the law.

PUBLIC PATIENCE AND EXPECTATIONS

The country continues divide over the impact of the unresolved election. Forty-nine percent think not knowing who the next president will be is a big problem for the country, while 48 percent think it is not a problem. That measure has not changed much in the last two weeks. Gore voters are less concerned about the delay than Bush voters are.

Nearly all Americans continue to follow the election proceedings closely, and 50 percent are paying very close attention – a number that has gone up over the past two weeks. Just over half – 51 percent - say they’ve lost patience, while 44 percent are willing to wait longer, showing little change from two weeks ago.

There is increased belief that the election will be over soon, although two-thirds think it will take at least a few more weeks. Twenty-two percent, however, expect it to be over this week.

Americans think it is still too soon, however, for a concession. With the case coming up before the Supreme Court, 52 percent say it’s too soon for a concession; 38 percent, however say Gore should concede, while 3 percent would like to see a concession from Bush. This indicates a slight decrease in public pressure on Gore – two weeks ago 42 percent thought he should concede.

A majority of Gore voters say it is too early for a concession; in contrast, 64 percent of Bush voters think Gore should concede.

More than a third of Americans are not aware that Al Gore received more votes nationwide than George W. Bush did. In fact, among those not following the election closely, a plurality believe Bush received the most votes nationwide. But for the first time since the election, Bush has a clear lead in the poll as the current public choice for president. More Americans want to see Bush rather than Gore become president - by 51 percent to 41 percent. Two weeks ago, opinions were divided, much like the popular vote; then, 47 percent wanted to see Bush become president, while 45 percent wanted Gore.

THE IMPACT ON THE CANDIDATES: GORE’S LOSSES

At this point, Bush is viewed potentially as a more effective leader than Gore. Sixty-six percent say that if Bush were to become president in January, he could lead the country effectively; 27 percent say he could not (similar to opinions two weeks ago). Currently, 56 percent feel Gore could lead the country effectively, and 36 percent say he could not. Two weeks ago, 60 percent said Gore could lead the country effectively and 33 percent thought he could not.

As the election remains unresolved, Gore continues to pay a higher price in public opinion than does Bush. Negative ratings of Gore exceed positive views of him. In this pol, 50 percent of voters have an unfavorable view of him, while 43 have a favorable view. Negative assessments of him have risen in the past two weeks, and just prior to the election, only 37 percent gave Gore an unfavorable rating. Opinions of Bush have changed little in the interim – 51 percent have a favorable view of him, and 36 percent have an unfavorable view.

A potential Gore presidency is increasingly viewed as more divisive than a Bush presidency would be. Thirty-seven percent think that if Gore eventually becomes president in January his presidency would bring different groups of people together, down from 42 percent who felt this way two weeks ago. Forty-six percent say Gore would divide people, up from 42 percent.

Bush is seen more positively than Gore on this measure as well, though most people still don’t see him as the "uniter" he claims to be. Forty-three percent think he would bring different groups of people together, and 40 percent think he would divide people. Two weeks ago, 39 percent thought he would unite people, and 43 percent thought he would divide them.

Public disapproval of Gore extends to his campaign. Fifty-six percent disapprove of the way the Gore campaign is handling the uncertain outcome of the presidential election, while 37 percent approve. Some of that disapproval comes from Gore’s own party; 31 percent of Democrats disapprove of the way his campaign is handling things. Nevertheless, most Democrats approve.

Bush’s campaign is viewed more positively than Gore’s. Fifty-six percent approve of the way his campaign is handling the situation, while 36 percent disapprove. Bush receives more support from members of his party than Gore does from his. Only 14 percent of Republicans disapprove of the way the Bush campaign is handling things.

THE IMPACT ON THE PRESIDENCY AND THE COUNTRY

The public’s division over the impact of the delay on the country is reflected in their views of the impact on the presidency. Forty-nine percent think that this election has done permanent damage to the institution of the presidency, while 48 percent think there has been no damage; 25 percent think the damage has been extensive.

Though the margins are different, most Americans think either candidate could lead effectively. But there are more serious differences on whether Gore and Bush would be legitimate winners. Sixty-four percent believe that if Bush becomes president in January he will have legitimately won the election, while 27 percent disagree. If Gore takes office in January only 49 percent think he will have legitimately won, and 39 percent feel he will not have.

VOTING REFORM?

In general, many Americans think the electoral system in this country is broken, and needs fundamental repair. When asked about the system of elections, 45 percent say the system needs fundamental changes, and 20% think it should be completely rebuilt. Only 33 percen think the system works pretty well. Not surprisingly, candidate support plays a role in attitudes towards the system – a majority of Bush voters think only minor changes are necessary, while a majority of Gore voters want greater reform.

Vote counting also comes under fire – 80 percent of Americans think that the system for counting votes could be more accurate, while only 19 percent think it is already as accurate as possible.

Many Americans are even willing to spend money to solve these problems. When asked whether they would be willing to have the government spend "a lot of money" to improve the way votes are cast and counted, 54 percent say yes. Forty percent of Americans would not be willing to spend a lot to fix these problems. Gore voters would like to see the money spent, but Bush voters are divided, possibly because they see less need for reform.

What kind of reforms would Americans like to see? For starters, most would like to see uniformity in voting methods and times. Seventy-one percent of Americans support the idea of instituting nationwide uniformity in voting method, rather than letting the states and counties determine the method. In addition, nearly three-quarters of adults favor the idea of a uniform poll closing time, so that all polling places across the country would close together. Republicans and Democrats overwhelmingly favor both of those reforms.

But one reform proposal has a partisan cast. Americans have consistently supported amending the Constitution to eliminate the Electoral College. In this poll 57 percent support amending the Constitution to elect the president by popular vote rather than electors, while 39% would like to keep the current system. However, the views of Republicans reflect the fact that the Republican candidate may win the Electoral College vote while trailing in the nationwide popular vote. By 58 percent to 38 percent, Republicans would keep the Electoral College.

Despite all of the doubts about the count in Florida, however, most voters remain confident that their votes were counted properly. Eighty-four percent have at least some confidence that their vote was counted properly, including 61 percent who are very confident. However, that number has decreased some since immediately following the election. Then, 69 percent had a lot of confidence that their vote was accurately counted.

And despite the bad press the punch card system has been receiving, more than 80 percent of those who voted by punch card this year have some confidence that their vote was counted correctly.

THE EFFECT ON CLINTON

One person has clearly benefited from the post-election turmoil. Since the election, public approval of Bill Clinton’s presidency has risen. In this poll, 68 percent say they approve of the way he is doing his job as president, while just 28 percent disapprove. That’s his highest approval rating since February 1999, following his cquittal by the Senate on impeachment charges brought by the House of Representatives.