Ten Key Moments In Campaign 2004

By David Paul Kuhn,
CBSNews.com Chief Political Writer

What we do know is that it's been a long, fast, curvy ride marked by perhaps ten key moments.

Kerry Mortgages His Campaign's Future
Late December and Early January

When Kerry mortgaged his Boston home for millions to keep his campaign afloat, it seemed like a bad investment. Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean was seemingly unstoppable back then. By early January, Kerry, the first of the Democratic front-runners, looked sure to flounder.

Kerry kept his campaign flush and laid the groundwork for his later decision to not take public financing. In the end, that decision may have saved his candidacy. Kerry did what Al Gore couldn't do in 2000: match the Republicans dollar for dollar. The Democrats competed with Republicans all summer in advertising. Neither party was meaningfully outspent this election.

The Downfall Of Dean
January 19

Dean went down with a scream. The night of the Iowa caucuses, Dean rolled up his sleeves, ranted and raged. It was the final nail in the coffin containing Dean's presidential ambitions.

In the last week of the Iowa campaign Dean's candidacy imploded. He and Missouri Rep. Richard Gephardt traded heated barbs. Dean told the media to "get a life."

His scream seemingly cemented concerns that the Vermont governor was too volatile - and too far left - for the big leagues. The shadow of 1972 - when Richard Nixon trounced antiwar Democrat George McGovern - loomed large.

With Dean's scream, "pragmatic" Democrats were back in. Kerry's win in the Iowa caucus was also a dramatic resurrection. He nailed the New Hampshire primary and by early March he'd assured himself the Democratic nomination.

The Dean downfall insured that Democrats would not field an anti-war candidate. But it also made it more difficult for the party to provide a vivid alternative to Mr. Bush.

David Kay: No Weapons Of Mass Destruction
January 28

America's chief weapons inspector went before the Senate and said, "we were almost all wrong" about Iraq possessing weapons of mass destruction. Thereafter, the dynamic of the presidential race was invariably altered.

President Bush spent the rest of the presidential election defending his war in Iraq. But the one reason Mr. Bush couldn't utilize was his principal justification for the war: that Saddam Hussein's Iraq posed an imminent threat to utilize or smuggle weapons of mass destruction. The administration's credibility on the top issue of the day was challenged not by the opposition, but by a weapons inspector.

"Fahrenheit 9/11"
June 25

When Michael Moore's Bush-bashing film premiered in 900 theaters nationwide, the buzz was instantly deafening.

The documentary had images of Mr. Bush bungling speeches, golfing, holding hands with members off the Saudi Royal Family and utilizing the Sept. 11 attacks to fight, as Moore alleged, the wrong war in Iraq.

To Europeans, it was "Yes, exactly." To U.S. liberals, it was, "Yes, exactly." To U.S. conservatives, it was despicable, "I-won't-even-see-it" propaganda.

But its pertinence to the election year is unmistakable. Though it likely swayed few voters, the most lucrative documentary in film history (grossing $120 million) was all the rage of the summer.

Edwards Gets The Nod
July 9, 2004

A four-month vice presidential search culminated with the selection of the 50-year-old freshman North Carolina senator, John Edwards. When the political coroners sort through the victor and vanquished later this week, no doubt the nod to Edwards will be a factor.

If Kerry can recapture Florida, Edwards will have helped. And if Kerry does well with centrist voters, Edwards is also likely to get some of the credit.

But if Mr. Bush dominates Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and Missouri, many will wonder what would have been if Gephardt got the nod. Just as true, if the Democratic dominance with women fades this election year, the handsome and genial Edwards will be worth less currency than widely thought.

Richard Clarke and The Books On Bush
June And July

Richard Clarke's insider indictment of Mr. Bush's war on terrorism was another blow to the pillar of the president's campaign.

All summer, the bestseller lists were filled with political polemics, both from the left and the right. Generally speaking, the trend gave Democrats a boost by inspiring fierce fundraising while also helping to maintain political momentum throughout the summer.

Clarke's book was categorically bigger. Combined with the Sept. 11 hearings, Clarke's accusation that Mr. Bush ignored terrorism before 9/11 and bungled the war on al Qaeda further put Mr. Bush on the defensive.

Swift Boat Advertising
August

It only took about $6 million. The conservative group Swift Boat Veterans for Truth didn't need to spend much to blow the campaign wide open.

The group said that Kerry didn't deserve his Vietnam medals and betrayed his comrades by protesting the war upon his return from Southeast Asia. With advertisements and a book, the allegations created a media firestorm.

The Kerry campaign decided not to have the Democratic candidate respond directly, a decision that turned out to be costly. A previously unheard of group succeeded in gutting the central theme of the late-July Democratic Convention: that Kerry defended America as a young man and would defend America now. In the eyes of some at least, they turned a war hero into a traitor.

Kerry received no bounce from his convention and, thanks to the Swift Boaters and his campaign's non-response, the campaign went into the gutter.

Republican National Convention
August 30 to September 2

From the opening night to the closing address, the GOP convention in New York City embodied a disciplined, well-organized Bush campaign message machine.

The opening night featured Sen. John McCain and former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani. Both well-liked politicians softened Mr. Bush in the eyes of America. No longer was Mr. Bush the bungler of Iraq. He was a commander-in-chief who made hard decisions in hard times and comforted the nation after 9/11.

The Republicans also did what the Democrats didn't: attacked the opposition. Between the Swift Boat advertising and the G.O.P. convention in late summer, the momentum had shifted. By Labor Day, Mr. Bush had a commanding lead in the polls.

The First Debate
September 30

Senator Kerry hit his stride in the debates. The Republicans had said he was long-winded, but in his showdowns with Mr. Bush, the Massachusetts senator was terse. He'd been accused of being a waffling politician. In the debates, Kerry was strong and declarative in speech.

For his part, Mr. Bush scowled. The president looked uncomfortable being challenged and appeared unable to make his argument. Kerry stood toe-to-toe with Mr. Bush, an equal.

Following the first debate, the presidential race was a dead heat. Where it now remains, on the eve of Election Day.

Osama Bin Laden's Small October Surprise
October 29

Four days before most voters went to the polls, America's most wanted terrorist reappeared on televisions around the world. The effect of this small "October surprise" remains to be seen.

Democrats hope it reminds Americans that the chief architect and financer of the Sept. 11 attacks remains free, secure and seemingly in good health.

Republicans hope it reminds Americans that they are at war, that the danger remains and that you don't change horses in the middle of a dangerous stream.