Support The President, But Vote For Me

The looming war against Iraq is forcing Democratic presidential hopefuls to rethink their campaign strategies for the coming weeks.

Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean has postponed a speech on universal health care; aides say a major policy announcement now would be ill-timed. One-time presidential candidate Gary Hart has delayed disclosing his plans for a possible 2004 bid because of the likelihood of war. And Sen. Bob Graham of Florida may put off by several weeks his formal entry into the White House race.

"It's real simple," said Democratic consultant Dane Strother. "The second the first missile is shot, everyone stands and salutes, the presidential campaign is put in the icebox, and you don't dare politicize anything."

Starting earlier than usual, the presidential campaigns have been in the nascent stage, with candidates making short trips to Iowa and New Hampshire to deliver a handful of policy speeches while focusing primarily on hiring staff and raising campaign money. Only two of the nine candidates - Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri - have announced their candidacies formally.

Even those few public events will be scrapped once a military conflict is under way. Instead, the candidates will focus on another March deadline and a critical measure of which campaigns lead in the crowded field and which are struggling. March 31 is the date when the campaigns must report their fund-raising totals for the first quarter.

One Democratic hopeful, Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, plans fund-raisers in New York on Tuesday, Boston on Wednesday and San Francisco on Thursday.

"None of the candidates are out having large partisan rallies," said Steve Elmendorf, an aide to the Gephardt campaign. "Most of the campaigns are doing retail, raising money, house parties in small groups. What people would find inappropriate is if you're out having big flag-draped rallies attacking the president."

Many of the Democrats will travel to Sacramento, Calif., at week's end for the state party's convention, even though the session probably is at the cusp of action in Iraq. The decision reflects a political reality: Electoral-rich California, with its wealthy donors, cannot be ignored.

The rhetoric will be at a minimum from most of the candidates, however, especially after the fighting begins.

"I'm sure they'll make very supportive comments and suspend any kind of major campaign events at the very beginning," said David Rohde, a professor at Michigan State University. "If it stretches on, they'll take their cue from what the president does, if the president does engage in political activity."

Few candidates would want a major policy announcement or campaign statement overshadowed, as Republican Sen. Richard Lugar of Indiana found out in 1995. Lugar formally announced he was running for president on April 19, 1995, the day of the bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City.

Three candidates - Al Sharpton, Carol Moseley Braun and Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich - have vowed to continue their public campaigns against President Bush's Iraq policy.

But that may have mixed results, according to Democratic consultant Strother.

During the initial phases of a war, notes Strother: "There's nothing they can do short of enlisting in the Army to get any press anyway."

By Will Lester