Super Tuesday: Breaking Down The Numbers
This analysis was written by CBS News' director of surveys Kathy Frankovic.
The long night of February 5 will likely end with no final resolution. The contest may have shifted to a race for the magic number of delegates, but party and state rules make amassing that figure difficult. Of the 16 primary states voting that day, nine close at 8 p.m. Eastern time. By 9 p.m. voting in all but two primary states will be over.
The Democratic nominee needs 2025 delegate votes (out of 4049). The Republican needs 1191 of 2380. How can they get them?
Democrats:
Democrats have 1,681 elected delegates at stake on February 5. But the way the party will allocate those delegates reflect party promises that date back to the 1968 convention - to be inclusive, not exclusive. So delegates get awarded from each Congressional District as well as statewide. And they are given to candidates proportionally: as long as a candidate meets the 15 percent threshold statewide or in a Congressional District, they will get some delegates.
All that serves to limit how big a lead in delegates a candidate can win; even if one candidate carries all the Super Tuesday states, the second place candidate may still remain close in the post-Super Tuesday delegate count.
However, there are also 796 "superdelegates," free to vote however they like. The superdelegates include every Democratic member of Congress, every Democratic governor, and every member of the Democratic National Committee, plus some other officials. They make up nearly one in five of all delegates. So far, they have been divided in their support: CBS News estimates that right now just over 200 favor Hillary Clinton, while just over 100 support Barack Obama. But each one of those delegates can change their minds up to and until they cast a ballot in Denver next August. They could move toward the candidate who does best in the Super Tuesday states.
Republicans:
The GOP has 1,015 elected delegates at stake on Super Tuesday. Party rules can vary from state to state, but generally, they are likely to favor a state's winner (and penalize the losers) more than the Democratic rules do. Seven of the 16 primary states award all their delegates to the statewide winner, and that group includes one of the largest prizes, New York. The other winner-take-all primary states are Connecticut, Delaware, Missouri, New Jersey, Arizona, and Utah. And there are also two other states where only one candidate will win delegates that day - the West Virginia convention and the Montana caucuses award those states' delegates to the statewide winner. Depending on the size of the winning candidate's victory, so might North Dakota.
Several other states give the winner in each Congressional Distract all the district's delegates, so a candidate with broad support in California can win the lion's share of those 170 delegates.
That means that a Republican candidate is more likely than a Democratic candidate to come out of Super Tuesday with what looks to be an insurmountable lead in delegates. That is, as long as all the four remaining major candidates don't divide up the victories!
By Kathy Frankovic