Super Blues-day For Edwards?

CBSNews.com Chief Political Writer David Paul Kuhn has state-by-state analysis of Tuesday's ten Democratic presidential contests.

Edwards is too genteel, too Southern comfort, known too much as the optimistic apolitical politician.

And with only one victory, Edwards' candidacy is banking on a strong showing on Tuesday, March 2, the biggest day of the primary season, whether he likes it or not.

But Edwards is trailing in all ten Super Tuesday states, according to the polls. In New York and California, which carry about half of the 1,151 delegates up for grabs, Edwards is losing by a three-to-one margin.

Most striking, in the day's one Southern contest, in Georgia, Edwards trails by double-digits. Edwards has always said one of his greatest assets was that he can beat President Bush in the South, territory consistently Republican since the Civil Rights era. But before he faces the Texan president, Edwards, the born-and-bred Southerner, needs to prove he can surpass a Massachusetts liberal in Dixie. And so far, Kerry has won more contests in the South than Edwards. (Virginia and Tennessee went Kerry's way, and Virginia, after all, was the capital of the Confederacy.)

Four of the other five Super Tuesday contests are in New England, where the Massachusetts senator is heavily favored. In the final state, Minnesota, Kerry leads, too.

Edwards simply never made headway. As expected, he didn't have the cash, the national organization or the time to compete in a nationwide contest where wholesale politics (campaigning via advertising and the press) matters more than retail politics (campaigning person-to-person).

Even before Howard Dean and Wesley Clark dropped out of the race, this ostensibly two-man contest between Edwards and Kerry has been the stuff of a hyping media (who love a horserace) and Edwards campaign.

Poignantly, angrily, and ever so aptly, the Rev. Al Sharpton, the long-shot (or no-shot) candidate with the highest entertainment value, challenged the media during Sunday's New York debate, as an effort was made to freeze out the minor candidates and focus exclusively on Edwards and Kerry.

"I think that your attempt to do this is blatant, and I'm going to call you out on it," Sharpton berated one of the questioners, The New York Times' Elisabeth Bumiller. "I'm not going to sit here and be window dressing."

The media's attempt to make this a two-man race was blatant and completely expected. Journalists have been nice to the guy with the smile, possibly too nice, as the kid gloves never came off.

Could it really be as simple as Edwards' affability, his handsome demeanor? Are we that much more image than substance?

Edwards is a stellar campaigner. He excels in that voter gut check that occurs when politician meets citizen face to face. Is this the reason Edwards polls nearly as well as Kerry against Bush, both beating the president? When the spin is stopped, it is not only Edwards' charm, just as pertinent is his populist "two-Americas" stump speech.

As things are, Kerry has won 18 of 20 contests nationwide. He has 748 delegates, according to a CBS News tally, three times as many as Edwards' 240. Edwards' problem is one of numbers: the math, not just the momentum, is mounting up against him.

Can Edwards get the numbers, the delegates, the wins? From California to Vermont, from the biggest of the big to the smallest of the small, Kerry stands a good chance of sweeping all ten states on Super Tuesday. Can Edwards stop him? Below is a breakdown of just how hard it will be.

California – 370 delegates

California carries about a third of Super Tuesday's total delegates. The Los Angeles Times tracking poll shows Kerry likely to get 60 percent of the vote, to Edwards' 19 percent. Kerry will win this state, handedly.

Although California is an open primary, allowing independents to vote, this constituency does not look likely to bounce Edwards to a close second, as it did in Wisconsin. Edwards has consistently gotten his highest percentage of support among non-Democrats, but unfortunately for him, this is a Democratic race and appeal that would translate in a general election simply has not held sway.

Edwards began his California climb last week, campaigning in Claremont, Fresno, Sacramento and San Francisco, leading up to Thursday's debate in Los Angeles.

After the debate, Kerry spent his Friday speaking in L.A., where he blasted President Bush on the war on terror. Kerry completed his campaigning in California with a stop in Oakland, spending the bulk of his time quiet on the foremost California issue of the day, gay marriage.

New York – 236 delegates

In Sunday's debate Edwards said Kerry was an inside Washington candidate. Kerry said last time he looked, Edwards worked as a senator in Washington too.

Edwards said Kerry "would drive us deeper and deeper into deficit." Kerry retorted that "I think John would have learned by now not to believe everything he reads in a newspaper." (Just everything you read here; Kerry must have forgotten that point.) Kerry then said Edwards should do his own "homework" and followed with a brief economic primer on the nature of a stimulus in budgets. America yawned.

All said and done, an hour passed and Edwards never got to Kerry. The Massachusetts senator didn't slip and went to sleep on Sunday still the runway frontrunner.

Nearly all the New York Democratic bigwigs have backed Kerry. They have stumped for him on corners in Queens and argued his case before the press hawks, following the debate at CBS News' studio in Manhattan.

In a city where Democrats outnumber Republicans five to one, and in a state where Democrats hold sway four to one, Kerry's liberal status is only an asset. After all, this is New York, where complementary shirts brandishing Sen. Hillary Clinton's face are sold in Marc Jacobs' ultra-stylish boutiques.

The latest poll by Marist College shows Kerry with 69 to 15 percent edge over Edwards. Other polls have shown the margin to be about 40 points. Either way, it's an insurmountable lead.

Ohio – 140 delegates

Last week in Toledo, Kerry received the endorsement of Ohio's most-loved Democrat, former Sen. John Glenn, NASA's clean-cut Apollo hero. But Kerry's candidacy had already taken off in this state hard-hit by job losses.

Ohio lost 67,000 jobs last year and 246,700 since President Bush took office, the second most in the United States. Edwards hope to upset Kerry on Tuesday may depend on Ohio where his best chance exists, due to the extreme job loss. Polls show, to no one's surprise, that the economy is the number-one issue here.

With this traditional-labor emergency, one would think the Democratic populist Edwards would fair best. Putting aside his all-American charms, Edwards' "Two Americas" stump speech targets the economically disenfranchised and he opposes the North American Free Trade Agreement in its current form. Both Edwards and Kerry made one-last stopover in Ohio on Monday.

Worth remembering is that in Michigan, the state hardest hit by job losses, Kerry won half the vote. Ohio should follow suit, Kerry leads by more than 30 points in the recent polls, again proving that for Democrats in 2004, it's electabilty, stupid!

Massachusetts – 93 delegates

There was time when former Gov. Howard Dean was the front-runner and one of his camp's favorite points was that Kerry was losing his home state. What a difference a month makes; in politics that is. By all estimates today, Kerry will win Massachusetts handily. This most liberal of liberal states will back its homegrown senator both due to electability (which is a confluence of momentum, heroic Vietnam veteran status and a demeanor perceived as presidential by voters). Of course, this is the state he has served for more than three decades, a state where his Boston Brahmin roots run deep.

Georgia – 86 delegates

This is the "must-win" state for Edwards, the one Southern contest on Super Tuesday. Throughout this campaign, Edwards has staked his candidacy on his Dixie appeal; but even here, the numbers are daunting for the North Carolina senator.

Two polls, completed in the last few days, show Kerry with a 20-point lead. One note of optimism for Edwards is that Georgia is one of five Super Tuesday states that allow independents to vote, a statistic favoring Edwards.

In Edwards' corner is former Gov. Roy Barnes and an allotment of conservative white Democratic representatives, while ex-Sen. Max Cleland and three members of Congress, including Rep. John Lewis, are standing behind Kerry.

Like in every state, Edwards has defended his position on international trade here, hoping to define his candidacy as one that is behind renegotiating trade deals like NAFTA. Edwards campaigned mostly downstate (although he did stump in Augusta and Atlanta to court the black vote). Nearly half the voters on Tuesday will likely be African-American, if the breakdown of the 2000 presidential election serves as a guide. And when black votes count, candidates go to church. Edwards' wife, Elizabeth, attended the 20,000-member New Birth Missionary Baptist Church in Lithonia.

Kerry, meanwhile, went where Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. once preached, attending the Ebenezer Baptist Church. He has a 30-second ad running that should carry weight in the veteran-heavy Peach State. Touching on his Vietnam experience, the ad features Cleland (a triple amputee Vietnam vet) and is airing across the state. Former Gen. Wesley Clark, who after resigning his candidacy backed Kerry, has campaigned for the Massachusetts senator in Columbus, Macon and Albany, tracing Edwards' steps downstate.

Minnesota – 72 delegates

Al Gore had already surmounted Bill Bradley the last time this state voted in a Democratic primary. The only Midwestern state contested on March 2 and the only caucus of the day, Minnesota counts this time but its count should go to Kerry. The Massachusetts senator has campaigned here on several occasions. But Edwards is still fighting, the nice fight that is. On Friday afternoon, Edwards went to a tiny Twin Cities university and campaigned one last time. His rallies have been well attended but expectations are that the visible support will not translate at the polls. Unable to secure the endorsement of Howard Dean (which he sought in repeated calls to the former Vermont governor), Edwards earned the backing of Dean's Minnesota contingent on Friday. But not even the ardent Dean's supporters carry that much weight.

Maryland – 69 delegates

A Mason-Dixon poll shows Kerry with 40-point margin over Edwards, to no one's surprise. After all, this is Maryland. On Tuesday, the state's two U.S. senators, Paul S. Sarbanes and Barbara A. Mikulski, joined Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley and a dozen Democrats in a steamroll of endorsements. Although, Edwards has not yielded the state (he campaigned here on Feb. 20 at a community college), the bulk of Maryland's Democratic establishment backs the Boston-bred Kerry.

However, Edwards remains optimistic and the numbers show in this case he should be. Another poll by the American Research Group has Kerry only ahead by about 10 points. Taking these numbers seriously, Kerry is making one last stop in Maryland on Monday. For Edwards, a win in Maryland would mean more than just the delegates he would earn. It would be a win in Kerry's backyard, a reason for the Southerner to stay on until Southern Tuesday.

In the meantime, both candidates are still courting Rep. Elijah E. Cummings of Baltimore, head of the Congressional Black Caucus, who had backed Dean before he resigned his candidacy. Prince George's County Executive Jack B. Johnson, also a prominent Maryland black politician, has still not made an endorsement.

Connecticut – 49 delegates

Even when local Sen. Joe Lieberman was in this race, Kerry was beating him by a two-to-one margin, according to a University of Connecticut poll completed shortly before Lieberman dropped out. There is no reason to think Kerry won't wallop Edwards in this very New England state. The University of Connecticut released a poll on Feb. 17 showing a whopping 87 percent of Democrats likely to support Kerry.

Rhode Island – 21 delegates

Three of the five Super Tuesday states that allow independents to vote are in New England (Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Vermont). Whether or not a massive amount of Independents come out on Tuesday, the key word here is New England. Kerry will hold Rhode Island because on top of the math and momentum snowballing behind the Massachusetts senator, this is also his backyard. Following Edwards' strong showing in Iowa he placed a disappointing third in New Hampshire, and there is no reason to think history won't repeat itself here. And the recent endorsement by the state Democratic chairman, William Lynch, only adds to Kerry's near-certain victory.

Vermont – 15 delegates

Howard Dean will likely win Vermont. Yes, that's right, Howard Dean. And no, he is not still in the race. But he is still on the ballot. Senior Vermont Democrats say Dean is held in great esteem, still the hometown favorite. One Vermont in-the-know Democrat said it would be a "symbolic show of support for a man who is incredibly popular" because "people would rather give a symbolic vote for Howard Dean than a rubber stamp to John Kerry."

A harbinger of this symbolic vote: the Barre-Montpelier Times Argus endorsed Dean on Feb. 28. The staff editorial read: "Our endorsement for him in the Vermont primary on Tuesday is a gesture of gratitude for what he has done in the Democratic campaign and a vote of confidence in the message he brings to the nation now and in the future."

A pertinent factor is that Edwards is not on the Vermont ballot. Now the only senior candidate on the ballot is Kerry, who once trailed Dean in his home state of Massachusetts. It is an irony that must nauseate Dean, who has yet to say if he will vote on March 2 or whose name he'll check off. Just maybe, the little New England state will offer Dean the elusive win he could never gain as a candidate.
By David Paul Kuhn