Stuck In The Middle

This analysis of "Survivor: Vanuatu"'s latest episode is by columnist Greg Feltes of CBS station WBBM in Chicago, who offers weekly commentary on the popular reality TV show.

Leann broke up a foolproof alliance on a whim.
It really wasn't Julie's fault, but Leann opened the door for Chris to make a power move and turn the game on its head. If Leann doesn't stray from the all-female alliance, Chris doesn't have anything to motivate Eliza to get her to make the switch that changed the game.

True, Julie should have seen how Leann's decision could backfire and spoken up, but Ami likely would have overruled her anyway.

She was too talk talkative with Chris.
Julie played a part in her own demise by telling Chris that he was staying and expecting him to be grateful and accept sixth place. Instead, he took this information and used it to vote out one of her strongest allies.

She concentrated too much on Twila as a target.
If there is ever a time and a place to throw someone under the bus, it's when you are about to be voted out. Julie allowed her friendships to obscure the fact that Eliza would have been easier to get voted out.

Scout and Twila clearly liked Julie more than Eliza. Plus, they were desperate and paranoid with Chris seemingly on the fence. Julie could have gone to them and told them what Eliza was talking about doing. They very well might have switched targets.

Eliza was extremely erratic and immature.
Eliza's behavior made it even tougher on Chris to take a leap of faith and join Julie and Eliza in a final three alliance. Chris might not fare better with them, but at least he can trust Scout and Twila.

Individual Analysis:

Chris:
Age: 33
Chris was wise to sit back and not get involved in all the fighting in camp. However, he made one bad decision that could hurt his chances at winning if he makes the final two.

Chris should never have promised Julie that she was staying with a 100% guarantee. Julie probably would have held no grudge against him if he were honest enough to tell her that she was going. Instead, she was received false assurances and was lied to by someone who she viewed as a big brother. If it weren't for his behavior in this episode, Julie probably would have definitely voted to give him the million, but now that's up in the air.

It's a shame too because Chris will need a vote from Leann, Ami or Julie to win this game

Otherwise, he's in good shape because he has a good chance at sweeping the final immunity challenges.

Twila:
Age: 41
Twila almost cost herself a final four berth because of her behavior, which was bad enough to nearly cause the very loyal Chris to switch alliances.

But loyalty did win out in the end, so Twila looks to make the final three unless Eliza wins immunity next week.

However, Twila's mouth has made it very hard to imagine her winning any final two vote. But that fact might cause Eliza or Chris to think about keeping her around, so they could take her into the final two and give themselves a good chance at victory.

Scout:
Age: 59
Scout's problem is that many members of the jury might see her as an undeserving winner. She has flown way way under the radar and strong, competitive people like Lea and Ami might resent that.

Scout will also have a problem winning any of the remaining challenges, so she is really dependent on Twila to carry her into the final two.

Eliza:
Age: 21
Eliza is very much in danger next week. It's clear that Chris has made his choice and decided to team up with Scout and Twila with the hope that he can dominate them physically in the remaining challenges. It would be a tremendous risk for him to force a tie, so he probably won't consider reteaming with Eliza.

That leaves immunity as her only hope and it's unlikely that Eliza can pull a season one Kelly or season two Colby and win her way into the final two.

With that said, here's how the various jury vote scenarios should work out.

Chris vs. Scout

There is no doubt that Chris will be receiving Lea and Chad's votes if he makes the final two. Just as there's no chance that Twila doesn't back Scout in this situation.

Eliza should be in Chris' corner despite his recent betrayal for no other reason than her pure hatred of the Scout/Twila duo, who have been gunning her for since day one. So, Chris should have three guaranteed votes before he opens his mouth, while Eliza will only have rock-solid supporter.

The big question is whether Leann, Ami and Julie will remain a consistent voting block. Survivor history says they won't. Kathy and Lex didn't vote the same way in Survivor 8 and they were great friends inside and outside the game.

Ami was betrayed by Scout in an extreme fashion, but might be forgiving simply because she might be able to see her logic and appreciate the good strategy move once she was out of the game. She liked Chris the most of the guys, but that's not saying much. You also can't overlook that Ami might feel strongly about playing a role in a lesbian winning Survivor for the first time.

Leann probably won't know what to think. She thought enough of Chris to risk her alliance to keep him around instead of Eliza, but he repaid that act of kindness by betraying her. On the other hand, Scout had been one of the people she trusted most and her switch probably stung a lot more. Leann is definitely a swing vote in this scenario.

Julie? Well, Chris lied straight to her face and that will be her last memory of playing Survivor, which obviously doesn't bode well for him. We never really saw Julie go at it with Scout, so the nature of their relationship is pretty much a mystery.

In the end, I have to believe that Chris will be able to pick off at least one of the three votes that are up in the air and take the game by a 4-3 or 5-2 margin.

Chris vs. Twila.

This is a final two that is really easy to call. Lea and Chad will go for Chris. We know how Eliza feels about her arch nemesis. Ami, Leann and Eliza were really put off by her swearing on her son's life. Scout should help her avoid a 7-0 vote, but she has no chance if it comes to this.

Chris vs. Eliza

Chris should also win in this situation. He has Lea and Chad without a doubt. Luckily, Eliza has spent her final days in this game pissing off Twila and Scout, so he should have four votes right there. Ami, Leann and Julie should vote Eliza's way, but that won't matter. Chris wins this one 4-3.

Eliza vs. Scout

This might be one of the most difficult outcomes to call.

With Chris in the jury, Lea and Chad's votes are back in the mix. The final tribal council will probably end up swaying their votes because nothing in the game has really indicated, which way they would go on this one.

Twila will vote for Scout without a doubt. Julie got really close to Eliza in her final days, so she should back her. Ami also forgave Eliza before she went and was very angry at Scout just before she was booted. With Julie and Ami's endorsement, Leann might feel inclined to vote for Eliza as well.

Scout's only hope then is to swing Lea, Chad and Chris, which doesn't seem likely. Eliza probably has the edge if it comes to this.

Eliza vs. Twila

Scout will vote for Twila without a doubt.

Ami, Leann, and Julie all had moral problems with Twila swearing on her son's life, which trumps anything else in this game. So those three should vote for Eliza.

However, Chris chose to save Twila against Eliza's wishes, so we know where he stands. Plus, Lea and Chad liked Twila enough to throw John K under the bus.

Unless one of the guys is convinced by Eliza's jury performance, Twila wins despite her big mouth.

Scout vs. Twila

This is an unlikely final two, but not an unpredictable one.

Leann, Ami, Julie and Eliza will likely vote for Scout because of Twila swearing on her son's life and because of the way she treated Julie and Eliza in their final days. The guys' votes won't matter.

My current ultimate Survivor pick:

As you can see, Chris fairs the best in jury scenarios. He has the easiest path because he likely wins in any final two. Twila has the most difficult road to victory because of her recent erratic behavior. For Eliza and Scout, it will come down to who they are in the final two.

In the end, you can't win without making the final two. Eliza will likely be the first to go because she won't be able to sway Chris to force a tie and two immunity wins in a row seems unlikely. It will likely then come down to the usual final three last person standing immunity challenge. I can't see Scout winning it, so it comes down to a Chris and Twila battle. If Chris wins, he will pick the final two partner who gives him the best chance to win, which is Twila. If Twila wins, she likely will pick her best friend in the game: Scout who would beat her in the final two.

No matter what happens, I think Twila will finish second, so it comes down to that last immunity challenge, which is really hard to predict. I guess I have to pull a Lex and go with my gut on this one. I can't think of a more apt ending than Chris who should have been the first off the island due to his lack of balance winning because he wins a task involving balance.

Fourth: Eliza
Third: Scout
Second: Twila
First: Chris

And, that's that. Now watch me be completely wrong.

My current ultimate Survivor pick: As you can see, Chris fairs the best in jury scenarios. He has the easiest path. Twila has the most difficult.