Strong Afghan Partner Needed to Succeed
CBS News senior White House correspondent Bill Plante reports Mr. Obama is expected to announce between 20,000 and 30,000 troops will be committed — less than the 40,000 additional troops McChrystal requested.
Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow with the Brookings Institute, said that U.S. allies in Europe may actually provide more soldiers than expected on the Afghan front.
"They certainly have been pushed to ultimately put up more troops," he told "Early Show" anchor Harry Smith this morning.
"Of course, there was hope that they would contribute more. It hasn't happened yet, but that may compensate for any gap between what McChrystal has proposed and what Obama may want to provide."
O'Hanlon said that despite the many meetings which have been held by the president's war council to adjust America's goals in Afghanistan and the resources to be applied, a positive outcome is still not guaranteed no matter what the strategy.
"Because you need a strong host partner," O'Hanlon said. "You need a strong Afghan government, or at least a competent [one]. Even if it's just a mediocre one, one that at least starts to move forward.
"The good news here, even though President Karzai has a lot of cronies who are not very good actors and are corrupt, there are some people in key positions — who run, for example, the police and the army, his two top guys in the cabinet who do that — who are seen as pretty good, who are working pretty well with us.
"And we have this very vigorous program now to train the Afghans and essentially do an apprenticeship program with the Afghan army and police under McChrystal's proposal."
"This is a little bit like Iraq after the country was stabilized," Smith said.
"Iraq did work out, at least in military terms," O'Hanlon said. "We obviously see the politics there continue to be difficult. I'm not quite as confident yet that we're going to get there in Afghanistan, but the plan is equally intense and equally focused, and I think McChrystal frankly is as good as Petraeus, so I do have some reasons for hopefulness."Hopefulness is certainly important. A new CBS News poll shows 69 percent of Americans think the war in Afghanistan is going badly, and only 36 percent believe more U.S. troops would make things better.
When asked what any commitment of more U.S. troops to Afghanistan may cost Mr. Obama among his supporters, particularly on the left, who are against a buildup, O'Hanlon admitted they will not be pleased by a strategy involving more American boots on the ground.
"Of course that's right, Harry. But I think the real risk is if the war isn't won. The left won't like this, but if in a year we can see progress, people will forget their original doubts and they'll be glad there is an exit strategy emerging ahead.
"The problem will be of course if we don't have progress in a year. That's going to mean that we reinvested in a failing mission, and that will be the problem."