Starting Gate: Too Little, Too Late?
Conservative blogs and talk radio programs are buzzing about stories like the one appearing in the New York Times yesterday which are providing at least anecdotal evidence that the security situation is improving in Iraq. It may be a measure of vindication for the administration's "surge" policy but for the Republican presidential field, even good news isn't likely to be enough to aid their prospects.
While candidates like Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney remain largely supportive of the war, they've certainly not made it an emphasis of the campaign, preferring instead to focus on terrorism and what they've come to describe as the fight against radical Islamic Jihadism. A little good news out if Iraq isn't about to change that. For one thing, candidates who might feel the urge to embrace signs of progress risk backlash should the situation deteriorate once again. For another, public attitudes probably won't change much on the war unless President Bush suddenly begins appearing before throngs of cheering Iraqi's in the middle of Baghdad or troops begin arriving home in mass numbers.
But good news could benefit GOP candidates by pushing the issue aside. "The main thing [an improving security situation] does is lower Iraq on the agenda," Republican pollster Whit Ayers tells CBSNews.com's Brian Montopoli. "That helps Republicans, because even an improving Iraq remains a sore spot for the country. So the best thing that can happen for Republicans is that it gets removed from the front pages of our nation's newspapers and leads in the television broadcasts and we argue about something else."
Not all Republicans agree. GOP strategist Steve Schmidt, a one-time adviser to John McCain's campaign, tells Montopoli that the issue is too central to be ignored. "This will be a huge part of the discussion in a presidential campaign," he says. "There are pundits that will say this election will be about the economy, or about health care, but at the end of the day, by virtue of the number of Americans fighting in Iraq, it will be a huge issue."
And, Schmidt sees value for Republicans in an improving situation. "Republicans said it was important not to surrender in Iraq, important to make sure we were patient enough to succeed. Republicans, who wanted to see victory instead of immediate withdrawal, will benefit. It shows Republicans have superior judgment."
If there is one candidate who could benefit, at least in the Republican primary battle, it's McCain. The Arizona Senator is connected to the war more closely than any other candidate. And while he has been harshly critical of the early execution, McCain has advocated tactics like the surge almost since before the war began. "McCain is the one most prominently associated with the surge strategy that has had such dramatically positive effects, and he can say that's why you should elect me – because I argue for what's right rather than what's popular," says Ayers. "An improving Iraq reinforces his whole rational for the presidency."
"It validates everything that he has said," says Schmidt. "That the war strategy under Rumsfeld was a failure and a debacle. That there needed to be more troops deployed. McCain had courage to criticize the failed strategy and advocate for a new strategy when he was being attacked mercilessly." Still, six weeks before the Iowa caucuses, it may be too little good news coming too late to help any of the Republican candidates.
Obama's First South Carolina Ads: Barack will begin running his first ads in South Carolina today, with an appeal to black voters – a group likely to make up at least half of the state's Democratic primary vote. "You know, hope and change haven't just been campaign slogans for me, they've been the causes of my life," Obama says in the ad, according to the AP. The ad notes his work as a civil rights attorney as the candidate talks about his resume. "In each instance, there were nay sayers who said it couldn't be done," Obama says. "But when millions of voices join together and insist on change, change happens and that's what we have to do in this election."
Stem Cell Discovery A Boon For Romney? Romney's campaign had to have been happy with yesterday's announcement that scientists may have discovered how to tap into the power of stem cells out of ordinary stem cells, thus avoiding the need to create or destroy embryos for the purpose. As governor of Massachusetts, Romney imposed limits on the creation of embryos for that specific reason. Yesterday, according to the Boston Globe, Romney's camp claimed a measure of victory on the issue. But the issue may put Romney's change of position on issues of life back onto the table. He has long cited his study of the stem cell issue as the primary reason for switching his public support for abortion rights.
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