Starting Gate: Tipping Point?
If there's one thing that has been missing from this campaign, aside from accurate predictions, it is momentum. While the prognosticators are currently focused on backroom deals, super delegates and what will happen with Florida and Michigan, whose delegates are currently in limbo, Obama is getting on a roll.
Since a split decision of sorts on Super Tuesday, Obama rolled through this weekend's caucuses and primary with surprising strength. Obama won 57 percent in Louisiana, 68 percent in Nebraska, 68 percent in Washington State and 59 percent in Maine (he also won 90 percent in the Virgin Islands). Hillary Clinton's campaign didn't expect to win any of these contests for clear reasons. First, three of them were caucuses, which Obama's campaign has emphasized or organized for. Second, the one primary was in Louisiana, another southern state with a large chunk of black voters.
The Clinton campaign has also begun downplaying their chances in tomorrow's "Potomac Primary," when Maryland, Virginia and Washington, DC vote. All appear to be good territory for Obama, containing high numbers of voters who have sided with him throughout this process – blacks, high-income and well-educated. Virginia may be a state where Clinton can challenge but recent polls show her far behind heading into the primary. A week later, Hawaii and Wisconsin vote, both good states for Obama.
Clinton's camp and some outside observers, see her remaining strength in some of the big states coming up in March and April. Ohio and Texas vote on March 4th, along with Rhode Island and Vermont. Mississippi is a week after that and then Pennsylvania takes its turn on April 22nd. Clinton can right the ship if she can with those three big and vital states, the spin goes.
But can she wait? Can she stop a run of nine straight wins by Obama? A string of victories like that, combining primaries and caucuses in all regions of the country has to count as momentum no matter how it's looked at. If Clinton can't find a win before March 4th, it's no sure bet that Ohio and Texas will still look so appetizing for her. Because of the Democratic rules, Clinton will pick up her share of delegates even should she go 0-for the next couple rounds. But if Obama continues to pile up 60-70 percent of the vote, he'll begin widening his overall lead and building his momentum.
When it's all said and done, we may have a new reason to remember Maine.
Inside The Shakeup: CBS News' chief political consultant Marc Ambinder provides some insight on the Clinton campaign shakeup which saw manager Patti Solis Doyle step down and Clinton's longtime aide Maggie Williams take the reins. Ambinder reports:
"In way … the departure was anti-climactic. Solis Doyle … had survived three separate coup attempts, the latest one being shortly after Iowa, when Clinton considered asking Williams to assume the title of 'campaign coordinator.' Twice, advisers to Bill Clinton have tried to oust her -- once in January, before the campaign officially began, and once in April, after Barack Obama raised more money than the vaunted Clinton machine."
More: "The chief complaints were several. One was that Solis Doyle's insistence that Clinton not begin to run for president until the she formally decided to run had put her at a tremendous fundraising disadvantage. Another was that Solis Doyle, a native of Chicago, did not fully anticipate the threat that Barack Obama would pose and therefore did not come up with a strategy to contain his candidate. A third was that Solis Doyle was not adept at managing what amounted to a 500 person corporation. A fourth was that, in managing the corporation, the care and feeding of important Democrats -- the large universe of Clinton advisers outside the campaign -- fell by the wayside."
Huckabee's Washington Woes: Mike Huckabee's campaign to keep John McCain from securing the majority of Republican delegates was helped over the weekend by victories in Kansas and Louisiana, but hit a snag in Washington, where the state Republican Party declared McCain the winner with 26 percent of the vote to Huckabee's 24 percent.
Huckabee's problem? Only 87 percent of the vote had been counted and, according to CBS News' count, Huckabee trails McCain by only 242 votes.
On Sunday, the Huckabee campaign released a statement saying it was "exploring all available legal options" in order to have the vote count completed.
"All Republicans should unite to demand an honest accounting of the votes, so that Republicans can have full confidence in the results, and full confidence in the eventual Republican nominee," Huckabee's chief strategist, Ed Rollins, said. "As I said, we are prepared to go to court, and we are also prepared to take our case all the way to the Republican National Convention in September."
Huckabee's campaign has placed the blame for the partial count, and what it calls a premature declaration of victory, at the feet of state GOP Chairman Luke Esser. According to the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, Esser says he declared McCain the winner after he was certain the Arizona senator's victory was certain.
"We have nothing but respect for Mr. Huckabee and his supporters. I was at Mrs. Huckabee's rally in Kirkland. It's just that we felt we had an obligation to report that John McCain won because it was the truth," Esser said.
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