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Starting Gate: They Like Him

(AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
Hillary Clinton won't fail to get the Democratic nomination because of vast differences on the issues between herself and Barack Obama. She won't lose it because the media has treated her unfairly. She won't lose it because he gives a better speech than she does. If Clinton loses this race – and last night's debate did nothing to alter the uphill landscape she faces – it will largely be because once Democrats voters were given a choice between her and an alternative, they picked the other.

To be sure, there are differences between the two on issues, particularly on their respective health care plans. But the larger gulf is one of judgment, tone and flat-out likeability.

On trade, supposedly a flash point between the candidates in Ohio, their answers were fairly similar and their differences hinged on a game of gotcha over who said what when about NAFTA. On the war in Iraq, Obama scored a point about who helped drive the bus "into the ditch," but their prescriptions sound about as similar as their voting records in the Senate.

Clinton came into the debate prepared, as usual, and was able to mostly drive the discussion and keep Obama on the defensive for a good part of the evening. He parried well but made a minor stumble or two. When asked about supportive comments made about him by the controversial Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan, Obama had to be pressed about how much distance he was seeking from him. Obama insisted he has "been very clear in my denunciation" of Farrakhan's anti-Semitic comments from the past but when asked if he rejected the support, he responded rather curiously. "I can't say to somebody that he can't say that he thinks I'm a good guy."

But the moment also illustrated how and why Obama has gained the prohibitive edge over Clinton in the race as the New York Senator engaged in a parsing of the difference between "denouncing and rejecting." Obama turned the exchange into something of a joke when he responded, "if the word 'reject' Senator Clinton feels is stronger than the word 'denounce,' then I'm happy to concede the point, and I would reject and denounce."

As she has been throughout this campaign, Clinton was at turns stiff, assertive, combative and more than a little defensive. Her strong grasp of policy details are undermined by caustic remarks about Obama's treatment in the media and references to "Saturday Night Live" skits that probably go over the heads of many voters. Contrast that with Obama's response to a clip of Clinton mocking his speeches as some sort of revival show. "Sounds good," Obama quipped after watching the clip.

In the most recent CBS News/New York Times poll, 63 percent of Democratic primary voters said they feel like Obama cares about them "a lot," compared to just 46 percent who felt that way about Clinton. And 69 percent said Obama inspires them while 54 percent said Clinton does. Among all voters, Obama had a 45/23 percent favorable/unfavorable split. Clinton's was 35 percent favorable and 43 percent unfavorable.

Clinton, her campaign and many supporters argue that the media has treated her unfairly, that she has been held to a different standard in this campaign and that she has been discriminated against because of her gender (would a man's laugh ever be described as a "cackle?). Others will point out that Clinton began with just about every conceivable advantage, brought baggage of her own making into this race and that the conduct of her and her husband, especially in discussing race, has not served to win friends and influence people. All perfectly legitimate points and all reasons Obama may effectively end this campaign next Tuesday.

"If you can't be with the one you love, love the one you're with," advises the classic song. Democrats are deciding they can be with the one they love – or at least like.

Bill Keeps Chugging Along: Stumping in Texas on behalf of his wife's candidacy, former president Clinton stayed on message as he has of late. Clinton also is sounding more and more defensive about the legacy of his own administration within his own party. "The argument being made by the other side is the only way you can really change America is to eliminate for consideration from the presidency anybody that ever did anything good in the 1990s and stopped anything bad from happening in this decade," he said. "That somehow, miraculously, the less you were involved in making something good happen the more likely it is to be good in the future. Just think about that."

What Would Ann Do? The Clinton campaign has an Internet video suggesting that the late former Texas governor, Ann Richards, would be backing her candidacy in the Texas contest Tuesday. The campaign says it had permission to make that assertion from Richards' daughter Ellen, according to the AP. The campaign released a statement quoting her as saying, "I believe that if my mom were alive today that she would be stumping across Texas and around the country supporting Hillary for president." Clinton added, "I realize that Vice President Cheney and President Bush have given experience a bad name. … But this is not about experience versus change. This is about electing the best change-maker."

But now two of Richards' sons are objecting, saying nobody knows for sure which candidate the late legend would pick. Dan and Clark Richards, in an e-mail sent to a friend of the late governor and obtained by the AP, had a different opinion. "As her children, we never presumed to know her mind when alive and we are not prepared to make a claim as to who she would endorse or what she would do if she were still with us." they wrote. "We are not granting permission for her name to be used in advertisements on behalf of either candidate."

Around The Track

  • A Los Angeles Times poll shows McCain with an edge over both Democrats still in the race. McCain leads Clinton by six points and Obama by two, according to the survey.
  • McCain apologized yesterday for the exuberant remarks made by Ohio talk show host Bill Cunningham at a campaign rally yesterday. Now, Cunningham is striking back. "I've had it with McCain. I'm going to endorse Hillary Clinton. I'm going to throw my support behind Hillary Clinton," Cunningham said on his radio show yesterday afternoon.
  • A new Quinnipiac University poll shows Obama gaining on Clinton in Pennsylvania, which holds its primary on April 22nd. Clinton leads Obama 49 percent to 43 percent in the poll. Her lead was 16 points as recently as Feb. 14th.
  • In an interview with the Tyler Morning Telegraph in Texas, McCain says he's not picking a running mate anytime soon because it would be "disrespectful" to do so as long as Mike Huckabee remains in the race.
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