Starting Gate: The Beginning Of The End?

3815632If Hillary Clinton ends up with some time on her hands this summer to reflect on where her campaign went wrong (and it's looking more and more likely she will), she may want to start at an unlikely place – her stunning and dramatic New Hampshire victory.

What at the time seemed like the makings of a comeback and provided evidence that her campaign structure had stabilized after the beating she too in Iowa turned out to be an illusion, one that may have prevented her from making the changes necessary to win the nomination.

Since New Hampshire, things have gone downhill for Clinton and they're starting to pick up the kind of momentum that is impossible to reverse. We may have heard a hint of an acknowledgement from the candidate herself in last night's debate when Clinton dropped the kind of light sniping has become part of her repertoire of late and instead gave a rhetorical bow to Barack Obama. "No matter what happens in this contest - and I am honored, I am honored to be here with Barack Obama … Whatever happens, we're going
to be fine."

Clinton passed up openings to go after Obama on readiness and experience in the debate, relying instead on her oft-repeated litany of attack on his words and their differences on health care mandates. Democratic voters in Texas and Ohio who just emerged from a coma in time to tune into the debate might have found something new and informational about the exchange. Unfortunately for Clinton, there almost certainly aren't enough of those kinds of voters to help her out of the hole she's dug for herself.

But that hole wasn't dug in a day, it was done over a long period of time and it was done by repetitive motion, shovel full by shovel full. In retrospect, New Hampshire may have been the worst thing that could have happened to her once-certain campaign (outside of Barack Obama of course).

We know from previous reports about the campaign at the time that there was widespread dissatisfaction within the campaign after the debacle in Iowa, where Clinton finished third after dedicating so much effort and focus to a quick knock-out strategy. The comeback in New Hampshire, just five days later, seemed to right the ship but it was an illusion.

When the losses began piling up after a virtual draw on Super Tuesday, Clinton's campaign manager was jettisoned, a nod that something had to change. But, as the campaign has done so often this year, the focus was all on process, not message. While they complained about caucuses being unrepresentative and pleaded their case to seat disputed delegates from Florida and Michigan, the candidate continued pushing the same message: experience over change, pragmatism over platitudes, safety over risk.

When George W. Bush was spanked by John McCain in New Hampshire in 2000, there was plenty of panicking inside the campaign. But instead of changing parts, they tweaked the message. Bush became a "reformer with results" as his campaign adjusted to the insurgent threat posed by McCain. A bit gimmicky perhaps but it worked, at least enough to hold onto the nomination. Clinton's message has remained constant despite the fact that in exit poll after exit poll, voters say they prefer Obama's over hers.

There's something honorable about consistency – and it looks like there's going to be plenty of time for the Clinton folks to comfort themselves with that thought for at least the next four years.

Beneath The Story The New York Times story alleging that John McCain had, at the very least, an improper relationship with a female lobbyist seems to have blown over for the moment. But what was uncovered by the storm is becoming a threat to the presumptive GOP nominee as he prepares for a general election campaign – perhaps against Obama.

Case in point: Today's Washington Post looks at the lobbying history of the McCain campaign's inner-circle. Here's a taste: "When McCain huddled with his closest advisers at his rustic Arizona cabin last weekend to map out his presidential campaign, virtually every one was part of the Washington lobbying culture he has long decried. His campaign manager, Rick Davis, co-founded a lobbying firm whose clients have included Verizon and SBC Telecommunications. His chief political adviser, Charles R. Black Jr., is chairman of one of Washington's lobbying powerhouses, BKSH and Associates, which has represented AT&T, Alcoa, JPMorgan and U.S. Airways. Senior advisers Steve Schmidt and Mark McKinnon work for firms that have lobbied for Land O' Lakes, UST Public Affairs, Dell and Fannie Mae."

What are the chances we'll hear that paragraph repeated in an Obama-McCain debate?

Wasting No Time: What is the RNC going to do with the reams and reams of research it has gathered on Clinton's record? They might be working overtime to catch up on their Obama file but aren't wasting any time going after the Democratic front-runner.

When Obama contended that his campaign had released all his requests for earmarks while he's been in the Senate, the RNC helpfully pointed out a recent Washington Post story which reported: "Since last year, he [Obama] has publicly released the letters he submits to the Appropriations Committee seeking support for the spending items, but has not released those submitted to the committee in 2005 and 2006."

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