Starting Gate: Suddenly Shifting Strategy

(CBS/AP)

Romney, a literal favorite son, announced his candidacy in the state where he was born and where his father served as governor. A win for him there would help stop the slide of a campaign effort which spent months and millions on an early-state strategy that appears to be faltering. A loss would be nearly fatal for his campaign.

Yesterday, Romney stopped airing ads in South Carolina and Florida, two battleground states which will play large roles before the crush of February 5th contests. He's now going all in on Michigan, where a victory is not at all assured.

John McCain, who defeated George W. Bush in the state's primary in 2000 hasn't ignored the state even though his strategy focused nearly full-time on New Hampshire. McCain has retained a fairly high-level of support from that effort and comes into it with a huge comeback win in the Granite State.

And Mike Huckabee, winner of the Iowa caucuses, may seem an unlikely fit for the state because he's perceived as a candidate with limited appeal outside of evangelical voters most commonly associated with states like Iowa and South Carolina. But Michigan is home to a large block of social conservatives. Moreover, Huckabee's economic populism is something that could play well in the distressed state where job losses and pocketbook concerns may trump everything else. Huckabee has begun airing ads in the state with a tagline that seems aimed directly at Romney. "I approved this message because I believe most Americans want the next president to remind them of the guy they work with, not the guy who laid them off," Huckabee says in the spot.

Polls in the state, for what they are worth these days, have been mixed, and have yet to take an the results in New Hampshire. In a wide-open race, Michigan is a wild card that may help shape the race. It's been a year of surprises and this is just one more, a sudden, unexpected showdown in a state left out of the conversation and off the radar for most of this long, long campaign.

McCain Makes Inroads Among Republican Regulars: Republican Pollster David Winston, a CBS News election consultant provides his breakdown of the New Hampshire Republican primary:

An analysis of the Exit Polls finds there were four key elements that shaped this race and could seriously impact the upcoming primaries.

First, most political observers expected that McCain would do well among Independents; and he did, beating Romney with a 38-30 margin. Less expected was McCain's surprising strength with Republicans who he won by a margin of 37-33. The longer-term implication for the primary race: the New Hampshire results showed that McCain can win in primary states where only Republicans are eligible to vote. Also interesting, in the 2000 New Hampshire Republican primary, Independents made up 32 percent of the electorate. This year, despite all the pre-primary discussion about Obama's ability to draw Independents away from Republicans, they totaled 34 percent, a slight increase.

Second, in New Hampshire 23 percent of voters identified themselves as born-again or evangelical Christians, in contrast to 60 percent in the Iowa caucuses. In Iowa, Huckabee won 45 percent of this vote with Romney the next closest at 19 percent. New Hampshire was a very different story. McCain and Huckabee tied for the lead among this group at 28, with Romney right behind them at 27. This is important because it shows that both McCain and Romney can be competitive with Huckabee for the evangelical vote.

Third, the exit poll asked voters in the Republican primary to identify which of four issues was most important in deciding how they voted. The economy was first (31 percent), followed by the war in Iraq (24 percent), illegal immigration (23 percent), and terrorism (18 percent). Against Romney, McCain clearly won the economic voters (41-21), the war in Iraq voters (45-27) and the terrorism voters (39-23), all sizable margins. However, Romney clearly did much better among illegal immigration voters against McCain, winning them by a huge margin, 56-19.

Finally, those who voted in the Republican primary had a very positive view of McCain who got a 75 percent favorable in the exit polls. Giuliani and Romney had respectable favorables as well at 63 percent and 62 percent respectively while Huckabee trailed behind with a 54 percent favorable. As we move into the upcoming contests, candidates' favorables will obviously be an important factor to keep in mind.

But his campaign lacked spark. While his appearances in smaller stump-settings were often given rave reviews, he failed to connect on a crowded stage in debates. His ads, and in some cases, his public persona, were funny and memorable. In a series of spots in Iowa last year, Richardson portrayed himself as interviewing for the job as president, laying out his past positions as ambassador, cabinet secretary and governor. But he was unable to break through in a crowded field that included two superstar candidates at the top. He finished with just two percent of the vote in Iowa and five percent in New Hampshire.

Richardson has long been viewed as a potential vice-presidential pick, largely because of the growing importance of Hispanic voters in the general election. Look for him on a lot of the short-lists to come.

Early Starts And Stops: The tea leaves for November haven't held much for Republicans to be excited about regardless of who wins the nominations but GOP operatives must be heartened by the prospect of a protracted Democratic nomination fight. A quick win for either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama would have allowed them to turn at least a measure of their attention toward the general election, especially raising money. Both Democratic heavyweights raised over $100 million in 2007, most of that targeted for primary spending, but some squirreled away to be used in the general election. Neither is expected to opt out of the public financing system, allowing them to raise and spend as much as they legally can. Now, with the two looking to duke it out in the large – and expensive – February 5th states, all that November planning and fund-raising takes a backseat for a while longer.

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