Starting Gate: So Long, For Now
The question is which Mitt Romney would we see on the next go-around? Will we see the rock-solid social conservative who spent so much of his campaign explaining how he arrived at those positions after years of holding the opposite ones? Or will we see the CEO Romney who saved the Salt Lake City Olympics, made millions of dollars in the private sector and managed a state?
Romney spent so much time trying to convince voters that he was a new and improved conservative on some of the core issues of the party that his real strengths were muffled, if not lost altogether.
Nobody on the Republican side of the aisle ran a better nuts-and-bolts campaign than Romney. He hired all the right people, armed them with state-of-the-art technology and techniques, did and said all the right things and outworked the competition. Romney (and his large family) spent enough time roaming the state of Iowa that they're on a first-name basis with the entire population.
He spread around enough money to qualify as a stimulus package. As a business model, it was top-shelf. But campaigns aren't businesses, they're contests about message and personalities and Romney couldn't sell his at the end. The perception that his conversions on social issues were politically expedient left an opening for Mike Huckabee in Iowa. His focus on holding that state, and his failure to push economic concerns, left room for John McCain's resurgence in New Hampshire.
Romney's sole early win was in Michigan. As one of his three home states, and one where his father once served as governor, it's easy to overlook. But it's a state McCain won big in 2000 and Romney beat him there. How? By focusing his message on the economy and his business know-how and playing to his strength.
Had Romney run his Michigan campaign throughout the process, he may still not have won Iowa. But he may have had a better shot at winning Florida, the state where McCain began pulling away from the field. It may have helped him in California as well, a state where a win would have likely saved his campaign. More importantly, it may have helped him connect to voters on an authentic level.
If he gets a shot to run in 2012, Romney will start in a better position. Having become the anti-McCain candidate for conservatives, he leaves the race with a lot of good will, something his exit speech at CPAC demonstrated. Next time, he can be himself.
Still Stewing: McCain has started to rally GOP institutional support behind his candidacy. Even Mississippi Senator Thad Cochran, who has been a harsh critic of McCain and has raised questions about his temperament signaled to the Washington Post that he's on board. "Oh, yes, I'll support John," he told the paper. But the rank-and-file is still a problem. Yesterday, evangelical leader James Dobson, who has said he will never support McCain, endorsed Mike Huckabee. "I am endorsing Gov. Mike Huckabee for President of the United States today," he said in a statement issued as a private citizen, not representing his organization, Focus on the Family. "My decision comes in the wake of my statement on Super Tuesday that I could not vote for Sen. John McCain, even if he goes on to win the Republican nomination. His record on the institution of the family and other conservative issues makes his candidacy a matter of conscience and concern for me."
The GOP Thinks The Dems Are Tied, Too: From CBSNews.com's David Miller, at the CPAC convention: Any close observer of political rhetoric attending the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington this week may have noticed a shift in the way Republicans talk about the Democratic race -- a shift that indicates even they think the Democrat they all love to bash, Hillary Clinton, may not win this thing after all.
Over the course of several panels and speakers -- and in talking to many people attending the event -- it was hard to find someone who would mention Clinton without throwing in Barack Obama's name immediately afterward. That reflects a shift from earlier in the race: After Clinton's comeback win in New Hampshire, Republican candidates often spoke of her as though she was the only one running.
Apparently, the results on Super Tuesday, a night on which Obama won the majority of states and possibly even more delegates than Clinton, changed the way the GOP views the race.
John McCain's CPAC speech definitely shows he's unsure of who he'll face in the general election: "Senator Clinton and Senator Obama want to increase the size of the federal government," "Senator Clinton and Senator Obama will raise your taxes," and "Senator Clinton and Senator Obama will withdraw our forces from Iraq based on an arbitrary timetable," were some of the claims he made Thursday, always making sure to include both Democrats in his critique.
It's not exactly the kind of acknowledgment Obama's going to tout in a press release, but coming from a party that loves to hate Clinton, it may be a somewhat meaningful barometer of the state of the race.
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