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Starting Gate: Roll The Dice?

(AP)
What happens in Vegas at tonight's Democratic debate certainly won't stay in Vegas. In fact, despite Nevada's early position in the nomination process (the state will hold caucuses on January 19th), the candidates tonight will be speaking as much to voters in Iowa. And after the last debate saw Hillary Clinton stumble a bit under attacks by her primary opponents, the tension has been ratcheted up.

Tonight's dynamic is likely to be similar – with John Edwards and Barack Obama continuing to seek to define Clinton as overly cautious and political while seeking to claim the mantle of the anti-Clinton candidate. One week before the Thanksgiving, it's a pivotal time in the campaign. While most of the nation presumably pauses for the long holiday weekend, the clock will continue to tick toward the January 3rd Iowa caucuses. It's not exactly a now-or-never moment, but it is a chance for Edwards and Obama to continue to chip away at Clinton's aura of invincibility -- or for her to recover from last month's stumbles.

Obama and Edwards may well feel emboldened to continue their aggressive postures tonight. Since that last debate, Clinton has faced a series of detrimental stories, not the least of which is her campaign's admission that they planted at least one question during a town hall meeting in Iowa. Her poll numbers have slipped nationally and in New Hampshire, though the race in Iowa remains a statistical dead-heat between the three. The good news for her is that neither Obama nor Edwards have been able to break away. It's more a matter of Clinton coming back to the pack.

Clinton so far has played keep-away, refusing to engage in kind to the jabs thrown at her. By not engaging directly, Clinton has tried to promote an image of being above the fray, in control and focused on her message of depth and experience. That approach has worked to a point but the last debate demonstrated the perils of the strategy, especially when she is the primary focus for nearly two solid hours. That's not likely to change tonight -- will her strategy? Stay tuned.

Now, Was That So Hard? Two weeks after saying she both supported and opposed New York Governor Eliot Spitzer's proposal to provide driver's licenses to illegal immigrants, Clinton yesterday announced that she is now firmly opposed to the idea. In the last Democratic presidential debate, Clinton said she understood the reasoning behind the proposal then balked at actually supporting the idea. Clinton tried to clean that flub afterwards, saying she supported Spitzer, if not the proposal.

Clinton voiced her support for Spitzer again yesterday after the governor abandoned the idea and pledged she would oppose such proposals in the future. "As president, I will not support driver's licenses for undocumented people and will press for comprehensive immigration reform that deals with all of the issues around illegal immigration including border security and fixing our broken system," Clinton said in a statement. Good thing we got that cleared up.

"B" Movie: John McCain's campaign is trying to make a little lemonade out of the lemons that have fallen around him on the campaign trail. We told you yesterday about a woman during a town hall meeting that asked this rather pointed question about Clinton: "How do we beat the b---?" The story and video has made the rounds and the campaign is taking exception to the way it's been portrayed by at least one outlet – CNN.

Yesterday, McCain campaign manager Rick Davis responded in an e-mail to supporters. "The CNN Network, affectionately known as the Clinton News Network, has stooped to an all-time low and is gratuitously attacking John McCain for not defending Hillary Clinton enough when a South Carolina voter used the 'B' word to describe her when John McCain stopped into a luncheon yesterday at the Trinity restaurant in Hilton Head, SC," Davis wrote. "A voter used a word that I would not have used to describe Senator Hillary Clinton and asked the Senator how he was going to beat her. Senator McCain first responded by saying that he respected Senator Clinton, as he has said repeatedly throughout the campaign."

The bottom line is it's an opportunity to add to the campaign's bottom line. The e-mail doubled as part explanation, part fund-raising appeal. "The liberal media has figured out that John McCain is the only thing that stands between a Hillary Clinton presidency, and they are therefore trying to stop the McCain comeback," wrote Davis before asking for a contribution. "Simply put, CNN is scared that John McCain will beat Hillary Clinton. They are right to be scared. We are not going to back down."

Around The Track

  • The Clinton campaign has a how-to-caucus instructional video. It's worth watching just for the opening, which features Bill Clinton jogging on a treadmill while visions of cheeseburgers dance before him. The idea: exercise is hard, caucusing is easy. The video explains how the process works, done by apparent caucus goers. Best line: "It's usually over early enough to get back to your favorite TV show." Second best: "Knitting is hard but caucusing is easy."
  • The nation's Catholic Bishops released voting instructions for Catholic voters that stressed the importance of considering church teachings on issues like abortion when it comes to casting their vote. ""It is important to be clear that the political choices faced by citizens have an impact on general peace and prosperity and also the individual's salvation," the document said. "Similarly, the kinds of laws and policies supported by public officials affect their spiritual well-being."
  • Nevada may be hosting tonight's Democratic debate but the state hasn't gotten the same kind of candidate love showered on Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
  • Early caucus date creates changes in efforts to mobilize young voters in Iowa.
  • Another week, another no-decision from Bill Gardner on New Hampshire primary date.
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