Starting Gate: One More Comeback In Store?
The Clintons (and they come as a campaign pair, for ill or good) have survived much, much worse predicaments than a series of primary losses and a delegate deficit. Any rationale person would be forgiven for thinking there's one more comeback in store.
And why not? Obama may have the momentum of eight straight wins at the moment, with two more in potentially in his pocket tomorrow night in Hawaii and Wisconsin. But all that success has translated into a surprisingly small delegate lead overall.
According to the latest CBS News delegate estimate, including super delegates, Obama leads Clinton by a margin of 1,289 to 1,213. Obama's gap nearly doubles among only pledged delegates won in the state nominating contests where he leads comfortably 1,124 to 984. Clinton's 229 to 165 edge in super delegates interviewed by CBS News is where she makes up some ground.
Obama has taken control of the race since Super Tuesday but his edge is less than the resounding victories in the eight contests since. Here are the percentages he's won by in those: 68% (Nebraska), 68% (Washington), 59% (Maine), 57% (Louisiana), 64 % (Virginia), 60% (Maryland), 75% (Washington, DC), 90% (Virgin Islands – among a tiny turnout of less than 2,000).
The same dynamic that has kept Obama from building a bigger lead – proportional delegate allocation – will make it just as difficult for Clinton to reclaim the lead. But with victories in her must-win states of Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania, she can certainly tighten that gap.
Clinton will need solid wins, not just pint-sized victories to strengthen her case as it appears nearly impossible for either candidate to win enough pledged delegates to reach 2,025, the number needed to win the nomination. That math, combined with the unpredictability of what the super delegates will do (those 795 free agents who can do whatever they please) is keeping the now-underdog within reasonable striking distance for now. Clinton has come back from much more precarious situations.
Comeback, Phase One? Now that he's ahead in the delegate count, Obama is beginning to labor under the heavy baggage of expectations. He's almost certain to win Hawaii's caucuses on Tuesday, an affirmation from the state where he was raised. And he's widely expected to add Wisconsin to his totals on the same day. He's led in most recent polls, often by a comfortable margin.
Clinton was reportedly set to flee the state this morning to concentrate on wooing Ohio Democrats but has shifted her schedule to remain in Wisconsin today. Poor weather shut down campaign plans there yesterday and her decision to remain and make up some events could signal that the campaign hasn't given up all hope. Some polls have shown her within a few points of Obama and a win there on Tuesday would be a huge boost. Even a close race would be a moral victory of sorts and a bit of a blow for Obama. Such are the burdens of expectations.
The Guest Who Won't Leave: With Mike Huckabee still in the race, John McCain told ABC's George Stephanopoulos yesterday that he's not considering himself the GOP nominee yet. While he continues to say he respects Huckabee's right to remain in the competition, those feelings could change should the former Arkansas governor win – or make a better-than-expected showing in Wisconsin tomorrow night.
The problem for McCain is two-fold: First, having all but clinched the nomination, Republican enthusiasm for participating in the remaining primaries will be much lower, especially as the Democratic contest overshadows it. Second, those activists who are most likely to show up are also those most likely to remain disgruntled with the Arizona senator. Independents who may be drawn to McCain might decide instead to participate in the Democratic primary in states where they have that option – like Wisconsin. At the very least, he continues to expose some weaknesses in McCain's position within the party that he'd like to begin repairing.
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