(CBS/AP)
To wit: In 1992, a Republican president who just a year earlier rode 90 percent approval ratings was thoroughly thrashed by a young Arkansas governor with a wandering eye, his "stand-by-my-man" spouse and a Texas billionaire with big fancy charts and bigger ears.
In 1994, Republicans reversed 40-some years of history by sweeping Democrats out of power in Congress. Four years later, those newly empowered leaders suffered a severe backlash when they decided to impeach that southern president for, well, that wandering eye. Two years after that, the nation went through a near-Constitutional crisis when the disputed results in Florida wound up having the winner declared by the Supreme Court.
Add in the worst terrorist attack in the nation's history, an unpopular war and a natural disaster which unveiled the impotency of the federal government and it's fair to say these past years have been historic.
This race fits right in, especially on the Democratic side which will produce either the first woman nominee of a major political party or the first black one. We even have the prospect of a former president (yes, that young guy from 1992) moving back into the White House.
No day is bigger than today, in terms of delegates up for grabs and the sheer number of states participating. But because of the proportional system of delegate allocation in the Democratic Party, neither candidate is likely to emerge with much more than an edge.
Would it surprise anyone if this battle went all the way to the convention? Political drama, it's not much of a change anymore. Here are some of the bigger things to keep an eye on as Super Tuesday results begin to flow in and beyond:
Appearances can be deceiving, be careful about reading statewide "wins" as actual wins. You're almost certain to know which candidates carried a state before you will know how many delegates they took from those wins, especially on the Democratic side. What may appear at first glance to be a good night for one candidate can turn around as the delegate counts begin to come in. What will it take to declare a "victory" for one of the Democrats? Is it a 60-40 delegate split, a 55-45 one? The Obama campaign has said that keeping Clinton's gap to 100 delegates or less would be a win for their side but look for the spin to come fast and furious as each side tries to define the terms of this night.What does Mitt Romney need to keep his campaign viable? Because of the winner-take-all rules in many states, John McCain has a big edge coming into the evening. But Romney will pick up some delegates, does he need to reach a certain threshold to keep going? Or would a outright victory (or close showing) in a major state like California – where he has shown some movement of late – be enough? Where will John Edwards voters go? The latest CBS News poll found that Obama is benefiting from movement among men to his campaign – especially white men. Those are likely Edwards voters and if that becomes a trend in tonight's contest and beyond, bodes well for Obama's campaign.Where will those conservatives go? McCain has gotten a sizable chunk of self-described conservatives in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida but also has been under assault from a vocal segment of that base. And, the argument since Florida has been a "who's more conservative" shoving contest, raising the issue to prominence. If McCain can hold his own among them, he's going to have a good night.What will Mike Huckabee do? Whether the Iowa victor is able to win another state or pull some delegates from the proportional contests is a side issue for Romney's campaign, which has argued that the former Arkansas governor is splitting conservative votes and blocking his challenge to McCain. Romney would like to get Huckabee out of this race and make it the two-man race he has wanted all along.