Starting Gate: Michigan And Mitt
Having failed to win in Iowa or New Hampshire despite enormous efforts and advantages in both states, Mitt Romney's future may well hinge on how well he's treated by his past. The state where he was born, where his father was a popular governor and where the Romney name is still remembered fondly votes today and all indications point to a close outcome. John McCain, who won the state in 2000, may benefit again from the open primary where independents can vote in the GOP primary. More helpful to the Arizona senator – there is no competitive Democratic race to pull those independents away.
Another "silver" finish for Romney may force the candidate to make a business-like cost analysis calculation about the value of sinking more of his own money into the campaign regardless of the massive delegate allocation still to come. There's no sense even pretending to know what will happen next in this wildest of campaigns but, supposing for a moment that Romney is able to squeeze out a win today. That would give him two "victories" (he won eight of the 12 Wyoming delegates selected by country conventions ten days ago) with the possibility of picking up more in the lightly-contested Nevada GOP caucuses on Saturday.
McCain, of course won New Hampshire and Mike Huckabee, who lurks in Michigan, is looking to replicate his Iowa victory in South Carolina's primary, also taking place on Saturday. If you believe the polls, South Carolina is shaping up to be a fierce contest between McCain and Huckabee but Romney is in a fairly solid third and could see his fortunes edge up with a Michigan victory. Regardless, a win today allows Romney to weather even a bronze in South Carolina and head to Florida, where a poll released yesterday by Quinnipiac University showed a virtual 4-way tie in the GOP race.
Rudy Giuliani has thus far benefited by basically not running a campaign in the early states. But it's made Florida an absolute must-win for him. Candidates may be allowed to choose their battleground, but when they put all their chips into one hand, it's win or go home. February 5th is Super Tuesday, with nearly two dozen states participating and awarding delegates. But Florida, on the 29th, may easily end up being the major contest for the GOP nomination fight. And Mitt Romney badly needs a win in Michigan to be a player there.
No Getting Away From Race: Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama publicly sought to calm the waters within the Democratic party over race. But that train has left the station and it's not likely to be shut down anytime soon.
Marking the anniversary of Martin Luther King Jr.'s birthday with service union workers in New York, Clinton praised the civil rights leader after a weekend of speculation and debate about whether some of her earlier comments had denigrated his role in passing the landmark Civil Rights Act. According to the New York Times, Clinton's efforts were met with "a few scattered boos." For his part, Obama offered a olive branch, telling reporters, "I think that Bill Clinton and Hillary have historically and consistently been on the right side of civil rights issues. I think that they care about the African American community, they care about all Americans, and they want to see equal rights and equal justice in this country."
But those were the high points of a day which saw finger-pointing on both sides and a flood of accusations about who was fueling the discussion about race. And it's one that certainly is here for the short term, if not the duration of the campaign. The topic is certain to be addressed tonight, when Clinton, Obama and John Edwards meet for a televised debate in Nevada.
And, despite the candidates' words, expect much more conversation about race.
BET founder and Clinton supporter Robert Johnson, whose apparent inference about Obama's past drug use over the weekend added fire to the debate, did not back away from the topic in an interview with the Washington Post today. Johnson said Obama has courted white voters by not talking about race. "White America is saying, 'He's safe for us, he should be safe for you guys,'" Johnson told the paper. "We're letting other people pick our leaders." Johnson also insisted, "the Obama campaign -- win, lose or draw -- is going to have to address race. … If we don't have this debate about race within the Democratic Party … we could find ourselves with a division in this party as we go up against whoever the Republicans put up."
Campaign Experience Counts: On the road with Obama, CBS News' Maria Gavrilovic reports that the candidate was grilled by some 2,000 Nevada voters yesterday on issues ranging from his experience to race. Obama pointed to his campaign organization as evidence that he has the ability to run the country. "Think about what I've done just this year. I started from scratch and have been competing against the top political operation in the country that was built over twenty years by the former president of the United States of America," Obama said, "I don't know if anyone has noticed, but we are playing them even right now."
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