3675634It's primary day in New Hampshire and voters in the small hamlets of Dixville Notch and Hart's Location, having already rendered their ballots, are free to sit back and soak it all in. Secretary of State Bill Gardner, the decision-maker who waited until mid-November to schedule his state's primary date (thereby causing much consternation among journalists and campaigns trying to make plans to visit the Granite State), is predicting a record high turnout of 500,000 or more.
If that many voters do show up on a mild January day to take part in this suddenly fast-moving presidential primary, it should be good news for Barack Obama. With recent polls showing him holding a steady, in some cases large, lead over Hillary Clinton, anything less than a rather convincing win for Obama could take a little steam out of the juggernaut he's ridden for the past five days.
With so little time in between Iowa and New Hampshire, it's always been a danger for candidates who disappointed in the caucuses but plenty of time to benefit from an Iowa "bounce." And Obama has been bouncing – in New Hampshire and nationwide. Will Clinton's "emotional moment" on the trail yesterday woo any wavering or undecided voters to her cause? Impossible to say, and likely too late for network exit pollsters to gauge, but it hardly could have hurt a candidate already expected to lose to dominate the media in the closing minutes of the campaign. And Clinton's later interviews gave her the opportunity to push a new and different message: No matter what you think of me, I'm a person too.
The GOP race is expected to be tighter (would you have believed that even a month ago?) and there are indications of a Mitt Romney rebound of sorts. The "Obama factor" threatens to drain critical independent support from John McCain and Romney's camp, by all reports, appears more energized and confident than they did going into the caucuses (though they kept a stiff upper lip even then). Romney himself went so far as to say he's "convinced" of a victory.
Lost in it all for the most part is Mike Huckabee, the GOP's Iowa victor who seems to have gotten something of a free pass in the New Hampshire expectations game. The former Arkansas governor has been stumping in the state since his big win but isn't expected to do much more than finish third today. That's a pretty neat trick for someone who just five days ago was in first place. Then there's the wild card – Ron Paul. Will he get anywhere near the double-digits he's polled at in New Hampshire? More importantly, will his vote come at the expense of another candidate or are his voters Paul-only type people?
When the granite dust has settled in New Hampshire, the campaign will head to states like Nevada and South Carolina or Michigan and Florida. Clinton was right, it's not easy and it's not going to get any easier for anyone, even Obama.
Around The Track
Now this is getting a little strange. Later in the same day where Clinton choked up when answering a question about the rigors of the campaign, she was interrupted by demonstrators at a rally holding signs and shouting, "Iron My Shirt." Lest anyone miss the unsubtle point being made, Clinton commented, "Ah, the remnants of sexism - alive and well" and added, "as I think has been abundantly demonstrated, I am also running to break through the highest and hardest glass ceiling," Regardless of how an opposing campaign might feel about Hillary Clinton's emotional moment yesterday, it's probably not in their best interest to intimate that it was a show of weakness. John Edwards had this to say when asked about it: "I think what we need in a commander-in-chief is strength and resolve, and presidential campaigns are tough business, but being president of the United States is also tough business. And the United States is faced with very difficult challenges every single day and difficult judgments every single day. What I know is that I'm prepared for that and I'm in this fight for the middle class and for the future of this country for the long haul, through the convention and straight to the White House." Clinton probably wishes Obama had said something similar but he smartly took a pass by acknowledging that campaigning is pretty tough-going at times.Rudy Giuliani isn't expected to win New Hampshire but he has spent a little more time and resources there than he did in Iowa. In his closing argument, Giuliani stressed his theme of electability. "As a Republican it has to come down to who do you think will win the general election, because if we nominate the wrong one and don't win the general, then we have a President Obama or President Clinton or President Edwards," Giuliani told a town hall meeting. "I think i have the best chance of winning the general election and I also believe I have the most experience in terms of having been tested in very different executive jobs."Fred Thompson came to New Hampshire for two debates over the weekend but wasn't about to stick around for a primary contest he's spent little time or money competing in. Today, Thompson begins to make his stand in South Carolina where he kicks off an 11-day bus tour of the Palmetto State leading up to the January 19th GOP primary. New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg didn't give any outward clues about whether he will launch an independent bid for the White House but at least one of the primary organizers of yesterday's bipartisan summit called to discuss the lack of cooperation between the major parties hinted that Bloomberg may be called to do so out of a sense of duty. "I don't really think the mayor wants to run," said former Oklahoma Senator David Boren. "Does that mean the mayor would never run if he still views the system as failing? I think he's a good American, and I don't think he would close the door on it if he thought it was his duty." For his part, Bloomberg indicated that all the talk of change in the presidential contest means he's already having an impact on the political discourse. "I hope that all the candidates say to themselves, 'The public is tired with the partisanship and the special interests, and if I'm going to get elected, I've got to stand up and say what I believe is the big issue, hold myself accountable.' And maybe you are seeing that."