Starting Gate: If She Can't Make It Here?
Despite expectations and available polling evidence showing Barack Obama with a small to sizable lead in today's Wisconsin primary, it appears made for a Clinton win at a glance. The state is 87 percent white with just about a five percent black population. Its median income is just about $43,000 a year and is home to plenty of elderly voters. These are Clinton voters.
In 2004, nine of ten Democratic voters were white, AP's Alan Fram points out and about half of them earned under $50,000 a year. And over half of the 2004 vote was comprised of voters without a college degree. These are groups which have made up a large part of the Clinton vote throughout the primary contests thus far.
But Wisconsin is also an open primary system where Independents can vote for the candidate of their choice. It has a lively young, college element particularly in the state capitol of Madison. And state officials estimate turnout statewide to reach about 35 percent – all factors working in Obama's favor.
As it has been in states across the country, the economy is likely to be at the top of voter concerns, something that has been reflected in both candidates stump speeches in the state. Both recently released lengthy policy papers on the economy. The issue should be a Clinton strength, given the memory of better economic times during Bill Clinton's administration and her campaign's focus on the "experience" argument. But Obama has reminded voters of 1990s trade agreements like NAFTA, particularly unpopular among working class voters in the industrial Midwest.
So Obama is siphoning off some votes from Clinton's key blocks of support and has claimed the momentum and excitement in the race. A Clinton victory tonight would be a slight surprise if not an upset and help stop some of the movement Obama has shown over the past eight contests. But a loss might raise even more questions about her campaign going forward into what her campaign has called must-wins in Texas and Ohio on March 4th. If she can't make it here, can she make it there two weeks from now?
Distraction Central: The Clinton campaign's full-court press on Obama's use of the same phrases used by Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick, his friend and supporter, may not have much of an impact on voters decisions but it did manage to turn into a bit of a distraction on an otherwise light news day.
Obama responded to the criticism yesterday, saying, "I'm happy to give Deval credit, as I give credit to a lot people for spurring all kinds of ideas. But I think that it is fair to say that everything that we've been doing in generating excitement and the interest that people have in the election is based on the core belief in me that we need change in America." Asked how he came to use a similar riff to Patrick's and whether he should have credited his friend, Obama said, "I was on the stump, and he had suggested that we use these lines. I thought they were good lines. I'm sure I should have - didn't this time."
Power Couple: It's been said before but this is worth keeping in mind as we head toward the conclusion of this primary season – can the Democratic Party afford not to have a fall ticket with both the names of Obama and Clinton on it? The two historic candidates have waged a fight unseen in presidential politics for decades, and they've done so without splitting the party, with most voters saying they would be satisfied with either as their nominee.
Would Democrats, or Americans at large, understand an Obama-Vilsack or Clinton-Strickland ticket after the months of excitement and drama the two have generated? Will energized young voters stay that way if Obama is left off? Will women stick with the Democratic ticket in huge numbers without Clinton? What would the reaction be, particularly if the race remains undecided at the end of the primary process, to the loss of a candidate who will have received roughly half the party's primary support? Of course the biggest question remains: Would either accept the number two spot?
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