Starting Gate: Fred's Campaign Is Not Dead -- Yet

(AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Is it paying off? Yes and no. According to the latest Palmetto Poll, conducted by the University of Clemson, Thompson remains in a distant fourth, garnering just 10 percent. John McCain leads the GOP race with 29 percent, Mike Huckabee gets 22 percent and Mitt Romney is third with 13 percent. In the August Palmetto Poll, Thompson led the field with 19 percent.

But while Thompson's poll numbers might not be soaring, his rhetoric has gotten sharper over these past ten days. Just yesterday, the former Tennessee senator took aim at each one of those currently ahead of him. Thompson accused Romney of pandering and said his approach to the economy is less-than conservative. "Romney was very effective in Michigan doing what he does best and that is tailoring his message to a particular audience," said Thompson. "He basically - as I could pick up with it - promised that the federal government was going to come in and bail out Michigan when he got elected president. Very conservative notion, don't you think?"

While taking it easier on his longtime friend McCain, Thompson still managed to get in a dig about his support for last year's failed immigration reform bill. "I knew that he was on the wrong track," he said of McCain. "And the American people said so and they rejected that bill." Thompson then took aim at Huckabee. "At least McCain's record's been out there for about 20 years. We've got some Johnny-come-latelies now that don't want to talk about their record and they're hoping there's not enough time for anybody to even to examine it, because where they've been in the past."

This is the feisty Thompson that has been on display at the most recent debates and it's made him a much different candidate than the laconic manner in which he carried himself throughout the fall and early winter. Despite the rejuvenation, it may be too little, too late even in an incredibly jumbled and unpredictable field.

But Thompson could prove to be a spoiler in the race. After finishing second in Michigan, McCain needs a win in South Carolina to reclaim the small burst of New Hampshire momentum which vaulted him to the top of national polls. Huckabee needs a victory in South Carolina to prove that his Iowa win was no fluke and that his claims of Southern appeal are solid. (Romney's win Tuesday takes some of the pressure off of him in a state that would be difficult for him under most circumstances). Between McCain and Huckabee, who does Thompson pull support from most? Should he win on Saturday, McCain might want to throw Thompson onto the list of people he needs to thank.

How Mitt Did It: GOP pollster David Winston, a CBS election analyst, provides his breakdown of Mitt Romney's Michigan win:

Mitt Romney achieved a critical victory for himself in his former home state of Michigan and turned the Republican presidential primary into a wide open contest. There were three key elements at play in the Michigan race.

First, the economy was not only the top issue, as it was in New Hampshire, it was more important than the war in Iraq, immigration, and terror combined. 55% of the Republican primary electorate said it was their top issue. Among these voters, Romney beat McCain by 42-29, a 13 point margin. This was a shift from New Hampshire where the economic situation is somewhat different. In New Hampshire, 31% said the economy was the top issue, and McCain won that group with a 41-21 margin. Republicans have now held primaries in two very different parts of the country where the economy has been the lead issues. As the race moves to a southern economy, will South Carolina continue this trend and, if so, whose message will resonate with these voters?

Second, 68% of the Michigan Republican primary voters identified themselves as Republicans. In contrast, when McCain won the 2000 Republican primary, Republicans made up a much smaller 48% of the vote with many more Independents voting in the GOP primary. On Tuesday, Romney won Republican voters 41-27% over McCain. This was a change from New Hampshire where he lost registered Republicans to McCain by a 33-37 margin. Romney's increased support from Republicans coupled with fewer Independents voting on the Republican side accrued to Romney's advantage. For Romney, the question is whether this occurred because of his home state status and is, therefore, unique to Michigan or whether it was a structural change?

Finally, the evangelical vote was split again in Michigan. 39% identified themselves as evangelical Christians. Romney got 34% of their vote; Huckabee got 29%; and McCain got 22%. In New Hampshire, the evangelical vote was evenly distributed among the three, whereas in Iowa, Huckabee clearly outperformed other candidates among this voting group. The question going into South Carolina is whether this fairly even distribution continues?

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