Starting Gate: Dangers Of A Two-Front Contest
Out of the four bigger GOP candidates, Romney has run the most traditional campaign. He's laid the groundwork in Iowa by methodically organizing supporters, spreading resources and spending lots of time in the small hamlets of the state. He's spent less time in New Hampshire, where he's already well-known, but hasn't ignored the state. And he's run more ads in those early states than all the others put together by far.
Now Romney's best-laid plans are being challenged in both states. In Iowa, Mike Huckabee's rather stunning surge has him within striking distance of the front-runner there. Iowa has never been a comfortable fit for either Rudy Giuliani or John McCain. Giuliani's differences with social conservatives and McCain's differences with GOP activists on illegal immigration have resulted in them paying less attention to the state. Conservatives not sold on Romney appear to have considered Fred Thompson as an alternative and found him wanting, turning instead toward Huckabee.
New Hampshire has long been more competitive. It's a state McCain won in 2000 and where he's increasingly turned back to for this campaign. Ron Paul appears to be in a position to play some type of spoiler role in the independent-minded state. Giuliani and Thompson up until now have appeared stronger in states following New Hampshire, particularly South Carolina and Florida. Those later-state strategies could fall apart should Romney cruise to wins in Iowa and New Hampshire. But with Romney suddenly bogged down a bit in Iowa against Huckabee, Giuliani is stepping up his attacks in New Hampshire, throwing an already fluid race into a potential wide-open free-for-all.
Unlike the Democratic campaign, which is focused so heavily on Iowa, the GOP battles span the primary map. Watch closely over the next five weeks to where these campaigns spend time and where they choose to make their stands. Most importantly, watch how the Romney camp deals with this new two-front war.
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Honey, Guess Who's Coming For Dinner: Bill Richardson wants to be a man of the people as president – so much so that he wants to spend the night in their homes. In Iowa yesterday, Richardson said he will avoid the bubble that so often surrounds a president by picking cabinet members from among Democrats, Republicans and Independents. Moreover, he said he'd seek to spend the night at the homes of average Americans. "I would stay in touch. I would be a grass-roots president." Richardson's approach differs from the perception that President Bush is isolated from the concerns of ordinary people. "This president says he doesn't read newspapers. … This president lives in a bubble. He is obviously not listening."
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