Starting Gate: Bush's Conundrum Is Shared By GOP Candidates
As he prepares to deliver his final State of the Union address tonight, the reasons for Bush's absence are pretty obvious but laid out well in a front-page preview by the Washington Post's Michael Abramowitz, who writes:
"For years, President Bush and his advisers expressed frustration that the White House received little credit for the nation's strong economic performance because of public discontent about the Iraq war. Today, the president is getting little credit for improved security in Iraq, as the public increasingly focuses on a struggling U.S. economy."That's the exact dynamic driving the Republican primary contest in Florida in the closing days, with John McCain stressing his national security credentials and hoping to capitalize on the seemingly improved situation in Iraq and Mitt Romney pitching himself as the CEO best qualified to ease concerns over the economy.
The dynamic played out on the campaign trail and television airwaves over the weekend as McCain and Romney traded shots and accused one another of being untruthful about issues of economic preparedness and past statements on the Iraq war. "He has an enormous disadvantage when it comes to the topics of changing Washington or fixing our economy," Romney said of McCain. "Even if the economy is the, quote, No. 1 issue, the real issue will remain America's security," McCain countered.
Recent polls show a very tight race heading into tomorrow's primary, with Romney perhaps holding a slight lead. Two high-profile Florida endorsements by Senator Mel Martinez and Gov. Charlie Crist may help McCain get over the top but whoever wins will likely do so with the slimmest of margins. And the debate over national security and the economy will almost certainly expand to those Super Tuesday states. Maybe both will find some tips on both issues in tonight's speech. Who says Bush doesn't matter in this race?
Do All Votes Count? There may not be any delegates at stake (yet) for Democrats in Florida tomorrow but Hillary Clinton is certainly looking for at least a PR boost from the hundreds of thousands of Democrats expected to vote in a primary that is momentarily meaningless.
As it did with Michigan, the Democratic National Committee has stripped Florida of all its delegates to the national convention and secured pledges from the candidates not to campaign in the state as punishment for Florida's move up the primary calendar. As her campaign did in Michigan, Clinton has mostly held to that pledge while at the same time openly hoping to win votes there.
Clinton was in the state yesterday for a fund-raiser (allowed under the boycott) and will return to the state tomorrow night, presumably to declare victory. The Obama campaign calls the move one of desperation and claims Clinton is circumventing rules all the campaigns agreed to. But even if the PR value of a Florida win is negligible, both delegate-less states could come into play should the race become a war of attrition. Most expect at least some delegates from both states to eventually be seated (or risk a backlash in the general election) and Clinton wins would give her the majority of them. It's never too early to do the math.
Deeper Than Race: Monika McDermott, an assistant professor at the University of Connecticut and election analyst for CBS News, writes there was more to Obama's win in South Carolina than race. "While the political pundits may label the South Carolina win by Barack Obama as all about race, exit polls demonstrate that the truth lies a little deeper. In many ways Obama's win was similar to his early victory in the Iowa caucuses. Increased turnout, specifically among the young and new voters, and a desire among voters of all colors for needed change helped him to a resounding win."
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