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Sources: Jet Ski Killing Case of Mistaken Identity

Tiffany Hartley, left, and family members, lay a wreath near the site where her husband, David Hartley, was shot last week, on Falcon Lake, Wednesday, Oct. 6, 2010 in Zapata, Texas. AP

(CBS/AP) The shooting death of American tourist David Hartley on a lake that straddles the U.S.-Mexico border could have been a case of mistaken identity in which a cartel mistook the couple as scouts for a rival gang, according to a report from STRATFOR Global Intelligence, which analyzes the drug war.

On Sept. 30, Hartley and his wife Tiffany decided to take Jet Skis across Falcon Lake, which is divided by the border, to photograph a historic church. They were on their way home when pirates opened fire, killing David Hartley, according to his wife.

Many have speculated that cartels have been involved in the case - and those suspicions became stronger when the head of the Mexican police commander investigating the case, Rolando Flores, was delivered to the military in a suitcase.

PICTURES: Tiffany and David Hartley

According to STRATFOR, the truck Hartley and his wife used to put their Jet Skis in the water at the lake had Tamaulipas state plates, and the Hartleys drove the Jet Skis to the Old Guerrero area of the lake, a known battleground in the ongoing war the Los Zetas and Gulf cartels. Given the couple's license plate and how they were traveling, it is possible that Zetas scouts identified them as a Gulf Cartel surveillance team.

The couple were working in Reynosa, a Mexican border town rife with drug violence, when Hartley's company moved them to McAllen, Texas, just across the Rio Grande, for safety.

The State Department has issued repeated travel warnings to Americans traveling to or living in Mexico, with a particular focus on the area just south of the border. The warnings say that kidnappings are occurring at "alarming rates" with U.S. citizens often the target.

The war between the Los Zetas and Gulf cartels that began in January 2010 has engulfed the entire Tamaulipas border region and spread both into interior regions such as Nuevo Leon, Veracruz and Hidalgo and across the border into South Texas, STRATFOR reports. After years of working together, each group possesses intimate knowledge of the other's operations, which has led to both sides being extremely cautious and increasing counterintelligence operations. Falcon Lake, particularly around the Old Guerrero region, is known as an area to smuggle large amounts of marijuana into the United States, so it is closely watched by both cartels.

Even as the headlines carry grisly reports of murders and torture, thousands of Americans still trek across the border for work and to visit family.

"People here on the border go back and forth all the time," said state Rep. Aaron Pena, who represents a portion of the border near his hometown of Edinburg. "Many people have to go because they have family over there. Funerals happen, weddings happen, grandmas get sick or they have businesses over there. For many of them, they feel safe because they live it daily. But it can strike you in a moment."

In the days after Hartley disappeared, Texas officials stood on the shore of Falcon Lake and encouraged Texas boaters to enjoy the fishing on the American side. Officials insist the lake is safe, as long as boats stay in U.S. waters. The border is marked only by buoys.

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