Sleeping With The Enemy

Senator John McCain won the Michigan Republican primary over George W. Bush amidst record-high turnout and strong support from independents and Democrats. According to the CBS News Exit Poll in Michigan, less than half of primary voters called themselves Republicans, providing McCain with a much friendlier electorate than the one he faced in South Carolina. Monika McDermott of the CBS Election and Survey Unit analyzes McCain's big win.

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Michigan's voters were more independent and less conservative than the voters that handed Bush his victory in South Carolina on Saturday. Thirty-five percent of Michigan Republican primary voters called themselves independent, 17 percent were Democrats and 48 percent were Republicans. In contrast, South Carolina's primary electorate was 61 percent Republican.

McCain's victory was driven almost entirely by his support from independents and Democrats, as he received only 29 percent of the vote from Republicans, compared to 66 percent for Bush. Among independents, McCain received 67 percent of the vote, and among Democrats he won 83 percent of the vote.

Michigan's primary voters were also less conservative than South Carolina's: 45 percent of Michigan primary voters described themselves as conservative, while in South Carolina, 61 percent of voters said they were conservative.

Among those conservative voters in Michigan, Bush nearly doubled McCain's vote Tuesday: 60 percent to 32 percent. But McCain returned the favor, beating Bush among moderates and liberals 65 percent to 31 percent.

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McCain's image as a straight-talking reformer survived his loss in South Carolina and the negative campaign waged there. Thirty percent of voters in Michigan went to the polls looking for a candidate who stood up for his beliefs - the top candidate quality - and among those voters McCain received 60 percent. Michigan voters also believed McCain was the candidate most likely to say what he believes. Forty-four percent of primary voters said that McCain was more likely to say what he believes, rather than what people want to hear, while only 28 percent said that Bush was more likely to do that.

In addition, Michigan voters believed that McCain was the true reformer in the race. Twnety-three percent of voters said McCain was the "real reformer," while only 15 percent said Bush was, 26 percent said both were, and a surprising 26 percent said neither candidate was.

McCain's promise in South Carolina to resume a positive campaign may have finally paid off for him - 43 percent of Michigan's Republican primary voters thought that Bush had attacked McCain unfairly in the campaign, while only 35 percent said that McCain had attacked Bush unfairly.

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Voters were most concerned with the issue of moral values - 29 percent chose moral values as their top issue, and among these voters Bush beat McCain by 11 points. Social Security/Medicare and Taxes were the next two most important issues, with 15 percent and 14 percent of voters choosing each respectively. McCain carried voters concerned most with Social Security, while Bush easily won among voters concerned with taxes.

Michigan Governor John Engler's endorsement of Bush had little effect on voters' choices, although among voters who were motivated by the endorsement, it may have done more harm than good. Thirty percent of voters said that Engler's endorsement affected their vote, including 15 percent who said it affected their vote a great deal. Among those affected a great deal, Engler's endorsement had a negative impact on Bush: 70 percent of these voters supported McCain.

Michigan's voters were much more optimistic about McCain's chances in November - should he win the nomination - than South Carolina's voters were. Michigan's voters divided over which candidate was more likely to beat the eventual Democratic nominee in November. Fifty percent said Bush would be more likely to beat the Democrats, while 46 percent said McCain would be. In South Carolina on Saturday, 57 percent said Bush was the stronger general election candidate.

The CBS News exit poll was conducted among 2,339 primary voters in Michigan as they left the polls. The error due to sampling could be plus or minus two percentage points for the entire sample. © 2000 CBS Worldwide Inc. All Rights Reserved