Schumer: Dems "very, very likely" to keep the Senate in 2012
As the 2012 congressional campaigns kick into full gear, many pundits predict Democrats will have a tough time keeping control of the Senate.
But New York Sen. Chuck Schumer paints an optimistic picture for the party's 2012 prospects.
"I think we're very, very likely to keep the Senate and I think there's a darn good chance we stay the same or pick up seats," Schumer said in an interview with The Hill newspaper.
Democrats face an uphill battle in holding onto their slim Senate majority in the 2012 race. The party now has a six vote advantage over the 47 Republicans. There are 2 independents who caucus with the 51 Democrats. But six Democrats have announced their retirements in the upcoming election, while only two Republicans plan to voluntarily leave the chamber after next year. That leaves 23 seats for Democrats to defend, compared to just 10 for Republicans to defend.
According to Schumer, Democrats have learned from their mistakes in the 2010 midterm elections, when Republicans took control of the House of Representatives and gained six seats in the Senate.
"We didn't have a narrative that fit," Schumer told the Hill, referring to the 2010 elections.
Schumer said next year is "is a contrast election."
"The theory of shrinking the government, get the government out of the way, has failed. Basically, it hasn't done anything to improve people's lives," Schumer said.
Schumer, who was head of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) from 2005-2008 - during which period the party saw major congressional gains - and who has since 2010 been charged with taking leadership on the Democratic message, suggested that the party has leverage over the GOP on issues like health care and the economy.
"We don't expect the economy to be in a rip-roaring recovery next year, but that hurts Republicans even more than it hurts Democrats, because it changes what the major issues are," Schumer said.
According to the Hill, the outspoken New York Democrat dismissed the notion that President Obama's lackluster approval ratings would hurt the party's electoral prospects in the Senate, and argued that the president's popularity was rising.
Larry Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley, of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, argue in a blog post that while they still favor a Republican takeover of the Senate in 2012, "we can also see a conceivable if unlikely path for the Democrats to retain control if the breaks go their way, especially if President Obama picks up steam in his reelection bid."
"For months, Republicans have been the ones to expand the playing field of competitive Senate seats this year, most notably thanks to the retirements of Democratic Sens. Jeff Bingaman (NM) and Herb Kohl (WI), which turned safe Democratic seats into toss ups," they write. But, they add, "thanks to smart candidate recruitment, Democrats might have a few chances of their own to take Republican-held seats."