Sanofi Says Heart Drug Multaq Is "On Track"; Numbers Suggest It's Derailed
Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) claims the launch of its new heart drug Multaq is "on track," but its own numbers seem to indicate the drug has already been derailed just months into the career of the erstwhile "blockbuster." In its Q4 2009 earnings release, the company said:
Some back-of-the-envelope math tells me that if there were €12 million in sales in Q4, then there were €13 million in sales in Q3, when the drug was launched (because 25 - 12 = 13, yes?). Which means that this drug's sales are already declining after just six months on the market. Maybe it was the Christmas holidays.The launch of Multaq®, the first anti-arrhythmic with a clinical benefit in reducing cardiovascular hospitalization in patients with atrial fibrillation to be approved, is on track with net sales of euro 12 million in the fourth quarter and euro 25 million for the full year of 2009.
Regardless, this drug is on course to make less than €100 million in annual sales at the current rate. What was Sanofi's estimate of its full potential prior to the launch? €1 billion.
Repeat in voice of Dr. Evil: One! Billion! Euros!