Romney Loves Michigan; Will It Love Him Back?

Mitt Romney loves Michigan. But will it love him back?

The former Massachusetts governor was born here, and now he is canvassing the state, campaigning as a native son with a case of nostalgia. One might get the impression, just watching him, that he is running not for the presidency but for the governorship. At a campaign stop Sunday in the town of Taylor, just south of Detroit, volunteers handed out hot dogs and potato chips to about 250 people. The scene was full of Americana and distinctly Michiganian. Plastic pump tubs of GFK Extra Thick Ketchup and Crown's Yellow Mustard, on nearby tables, were manufactured in Grand Rapids, on the western side of the state. Ann Romney, introducing her husband, said, "We love Michigan" at least three times. Mitt Romney, walking on stage, hit the message home.

"It sure does feel like a homecoming, I got to tell you," he said over a din of cheers and what sounded like the lyrics of Elvis Presley's "A Little Less Conversation."

Yet Romney is running only a few points ahead of John McCain in recent state polls.

The primary here is being hyped by pundits as a critical moment for the Romney campaign, a potential jetty to the politician's slipping prospects after second-place finishes in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Romney recently dropped his ads in South Carolina and Florida, hoping to concentrate his efforts here. A new Detroit Free Press poll released this past weekend showed Romney with a slight edge over Sen. John McCain, 27 to 22 percent, with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee a strong third, at 16 percent. (The poll was conducted by the Public Opinion Research firm Selzer & Co., which correctly predicted Sen. Barack Obama's victory in Iowa.)

Unlike the Iowa and New Hampshire contests, however, which tend to spotlight different voting groups (evangelicals, independents, etc.), the Michigan primary has put a single issue--the economy--into klieg lights. The state's unemployment rate is currently 7.5 percent, the highest in the country. Since 2006, more than 70,000 homes in Detroit have been foreclosed. Property values are down nearly 20 percent. The backslide, anyone will tell you, is the result of the sagging Detroit auto industry, which has cut thousands of blue-collar jobs in the past decade as American car companies have crumpled against rising oil prices and increased foreign competition. The woes are now self-perpetuating, too. A recent study found that more than 60 percent of college seniors at the University of Michigan plan to leave the state to find better jobs after graduation.

Nearly half of Michigan GOP voters say the economy is their top concern today, the Free Press poll found. Other issues, such as terrorism, immigration, and the war in Iraq, still rate high but have receded from the foreground.

How the economy card will play for the candidates remains unclear. Romney, McCain, and Huckabee have each recently put forward different ideas--to call them "plans" would be too generous--about how to solve the problem. (The other main Republican candidates--Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, and Ron Paul--have chosen not to actively campaign here.) What their ideas lack in detail they compensate for in tone. Romney is billing himself as an optimist, stressing his record as a successful businessman who rebuilt flagging companies and rescued the Salt Lake City Winter Olympics in 2002.

Now he is promising Michigan voters he will restore the automotive jobs the state has lost, laying blame for the loss on federal regulation. He for instance opposes stricter fuel standards unless they are part of a more comprehensive energy efficiency strategy.

"Why does Washington throw anvils on the auto industry...and then see if it can swim with anvils around its neck?" Romney asked his audience in Taylor. "I believe that Washington is broken, and I intend to fix it."

McCain has been more somber on the topic. In the Souh Carolina GOP debate last week, he said point-blank that "some jobs won't come back to Michigan." McCain called his comment straight talk; the Romney camp labeled it pessimism. But McCain has held firm in Michigan, if massaging his rhetoric a bit. At a town hall-style meeting in Howell, about 20 miles north of Ann Arbor, McCain bluntly reminded voters of his opinion that climate change is happening and that "one of the greatest greenhouse emitters is automobiles." He pledged that he would invest heavily in new green technologies to revive the industry and has proposed providing federal subsidies to retrain blue-collar workers at community colleges.

Huckabee, who returned to Michigan today following a brief swing through South Carolina, has piqued the interest of some voters here with his populist economic message, his criticism of free-trade agreements, and his "fair tax" proposal, which he says will benefit middle-class families.

Voters, for their part, are clearly split over whom to believe.

Yesterday, Romney sent his audience into a Mitt-chanting frenzy with promises of recovery. (No small task considering that the crowd had already sat through two hours of speeches by local members of Congress, town chairs, the mayor, and the state's attorney general, all clearly stalling for time until Romney, who had been campaigning in upstate Michigan earlier in the day, arrived.) Polls show that Romney has the edge on this issue: Of the respondents who ranked the economy as their top concern, 42 percent favored Romney, compared with 25 for McCain.

Economic issues aside, certain pools of support lean in favor of each candidate. Romney clearly has the home-state card. He was born in the town of Bloomfield Hills, in affluent northwest Detroit. His father, George, was a popular governor in the 1960s, and before he was governor, he was the president of American Motors. Romney makes sure to remind people of this connection, not only that it exists but also that the Romney name is firmly tied to the halcyon days of the American automotive industry.

McCain enjoys no familial lineage here, but he does have a record of success. He won the GOP primary in 2000, defeating George Bush by more than 100,000 votes. Independents, who made up 20 percent of the state's registered voters in 2004, will very likely help his cause. Huckabee has the support of Michigan evangelicals, who account for roughly 30 percent of Republican primary-goers and favor him by a 2-to-1 margin over other candidates.

Reflecting the deep divisions, papers in Michigan have split their endorsements. The Grand Rapids Press and the Oakland Press, both on the conservative west side of the state, endorsed Romney. The two main Detroit papers, the Free Press and the Detroit News, endorsed McCain. The News, while praising Romney's business acumen, wrote that the governor had taken too long to campaign on his actual strengths.

"Instead," the paper wrote, "he has panted after the GOP's most conservative values voters."

A good deal of fluidity remains heading into tomorrow's vote. Nearly 40 percent of voters say they could change their mind by the time they vote, and 22 percent--as of yesterday--had yet to pick a candidate. The potential role that Democrats could play in the Republican race is also being chewed over by pollsters. Because national Democratic leaders stripped Michigan of its delegates after the state moved its primary to mid-January, in effect banning candidates from campaigning here, both Obama and John Edwards withdrew their names from the ballot. Sen. Hillary Clinton and Dennis Kucinich chose to remain. Some liberal bloggers are now encouraging Democrats in Michigan to vote Republican and specifically in favor of Romney. Their goal: keep the Republican race undecided as long as possible.

If Romney wins, the Republican race will truly become more muddled heading into South Crolina, with a three-man contest among Romney, McCain, and Huckabee. If Romney loses, observers say his Olympic medal metaphor may finally have exhausted its flame.

By Kent Garber