Republicans Land Top Recruit Against Carson

State Rep. Jon Elrod (R) is expected to announce that he is running for Congress tomorrow, giving Republicans a high-profile recruit against ailing Rep. Julia Carson (D-Ind.), who has been absent from Washington over the last several months.

Carson has been recovering from a leg infection since September, and has taken medical leave from the House until mid-December.  Political observers believe she may retire, given her history of health woes. But if she decides to run for re-election, Republicans view the seat as a golden pickup opportunity.

Indianapolis has been a rare and surprising bright spot for Republicans lately. Despite representing the most Democratic district in the state, Carson only narrowly won re-election against an underfunded opponent last year – in a year when three other statewide Republican incumbents lost.

The Democratic-leaning city just ousted their incumbent mayor Bart Peterson (D), who lost against obscure Republican challenger Greg Ballard. Ballard was given next-to-no chance of winning and was outspent by a ten-to-one margin. Local political observers called it one of the biggest upsets in the state’s history. (Even the state’s Republican governor, Mitch Daniels, didn’t campaign for Ballard.)

Elrod also had to overcome significant obstacles to be in this position. The 30-year old state legislator scored a surprising upset of his own last year, winning a solidly-Democratic legislative district against an veteran opponent.

The Indianapolis-based district voted for John Kerry in 2004, giving him 58 percent of the vote. Carson only won 54 percent of the vote last year – four points behind Kerry’s total in a wave election cycle for Democrats.

Peterson, after his mayoral loss, is being rumored as a possible candidate for the seat if Carson decides to retire.