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Report: Global Energy Use To Soar

Oil refineries in Galveston Bay, Texas City, Texas, Sept. 21, 2005.
AP (file)
Global energy consumption will soar 60 percent over the next 25 years, Exxon Mobil Corp. forecast Tuesday in its annual energy outlook.

Energy demand will grow to 334 million barrels of oil equivalent a day in 2030, up from 205 million in 2000, Jaime Spellings, head of Irving, Texas-based Exxon Mobil's corporate planning, said during a Web cast of the outlook's presentation.

Oil consumption will grow 1.4 percent annually, and gas will grow 1.8 percent per year. Oil and gas will account for 60 percent of the world's energy needs, the same share they hold today, Spellings said.

Most of the growth will occur in developing countries, he said.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will have a progressively larger share of the world's oil production as non-OPEC output growth flattens around 2010, Spellings said.

To satisfy growing crude oil thirst, OPEC will have to produce more than 47 million barrels a day by 2030, a 40 percent increase over current levels, Spellings said.

"We're very confident that that growth will happen," he said.

The planet's remaining crude-oil resource base, approximately 2.2 trillion barrels, excluding non-conventional oil, can support that growth, Spellings said. The Middle East and Russia hold most of remaining reserves, he said.

North American natural-gas demand will grow 0.5 percent per year to 90 billion cubic feet a day, with domestic production expected to decline by 2030 to slightly above 60 billion cubic feet a day from close to 80 billion cubic feet a day. Liquefied natural-gas imports will account for the difference.

Asian demand will triple from around 30 billion cubic feet a day to 90 billion cubic feet a day, on par with North America, Spellings said.

Technology and efficiency improvements, expected to dampen demand, are already factored in the Exxon Mobil outlook, Spellings said.