Replacing Rudy
The announcement Friday that Rudy Giuliani was ending his Senate run in order to focus his energies on his battle with prostate cancer sent shock waves through New York's political community. Giuliani's withdrawal completely transforms what had already become the nation's highest-profile legislative race, pitting the combative mayor against first lady Hillary Rodham Clinton, who now finds herself in uncharted - and possibly dangerous - seas.
"Whoever is selected ... will have lower negatives than Giuliani had," said Nelson Warfield, a Republican consultant. "The race will, inevitably, become about Hillary, not about the Republicans, and that's to our benefit."
It isn't just Republicans who think that. There have been reports that Mrs. Clinton's campaign was keeping its fingers crossed, hoping Giuliani would stay in. Hank Sheinkopf, a Democratic consultant unconnected with the Clinton campaign, said, "In some ways, Hillary Clinton was much better off having Rudy Giuliani as the opponent. She knew who he was, we knew who he was ... someone who would balance off against her own negatives."
Giuliani is just as polarizing a figure as Clinton, and he has lots of negatives that have nothing to do with his personal life, but stem from his sometimes high-handed, impatient managerial style.
So what's next? Well, the state's Republican convention is May 30, and the party has a keen interest in selecting a nominee before that. New York Republicans "are not a participatory democracy," laughed Warfield. There may be some jockeying among different prospective candidates, but Gov. George Pataki and state Republican chair William Powers will quickly choose the new nominee, and the rest of the party will be expected to fall quickly into line.
Chances are the job will go to Rep. Rick Lazio, a Long Island congressman who formally announced his candidacy on Saturday.
"I will run hard. I will fight fair and I will stand on the issues. And I mean to win," he told a cheering crowd of supporters in a packed gymnasium at West Islip High School, where he is an alumnus.
Lazio is popular with New York's small, fierce Conservative Party, which detested Giuliani. Like the mayor, he’s Catholic, Italian, moderate, pro-choice and anti-gun. Unlike Giuliani, he’s not from New York City, which is Sin City for much of the rest of New York State.
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Rep. Peter King, another Long Island Republican who had expressed interest in a Senate bid, said Saturday he would not seek the nomination.
"The last thing I want to do is divide the party," he said. "I'm proud to support Rick Lazio. ... I think he'll be a great senator."
Lazio doesn't come with high negatives, but that's because he's not well known. He'll have to introduce himself to the millions of New Yorkers who don't come from his district, and he'll have to raise money, raise money, raise money.
"From June 1 to Election Day, he has to raise $3.5 million a month" to keep pace with Clinton, said Jennifer Duffy, the Senate editor at Cook's Political Report. Giuliani can't give the new candidate his own $9 million, though he can give it to the state or national Republican party. The GOP will clearly hurl itself into fund-raising efforts to fuel this race, and the thought of Hillary may send some Republicans rushing for their pocketbooks. But it's possible, says Duffy, that "people in middle America who contributed already to Rudy are going to feel like they don't want to throw good money after bad."
If there's a money gap, it obviously works in Hillary's favor. And if her opponent is Lazio, she faces a Washington Republican with a record that can be combed for missteps. Although Lazio is fairly moderate, Duffy notes he was part of Newt Gingrich's 1994 Congress, "where lots of people cast votes they wish they hadn't."
But it may be a while before Clinton can make hay of Lazio's record – she'll have to wait to see how Lazio casts himself. "Any Clinton campaign is always based on an enemy," observed Sheinkopf. "Right now, the Clintons don't have an enemy to fight in New York State. Before they can find an enemy, one has to be created, and we don't know what a Rick Lazio is for political purposes yet."
In other words, if you thought the suspense and entertainment of the New York Senate campaign was over, think again.