Real Estate Development: In The Downturn, We're Fighting It Less
How would you feel about a new Costco or Target being put up in your neighborhood? They're not entirely welcome, but these sorts of projects are getting less resistance in the downturn, according to an annual survey by Saint Consulting of Hingham, Massachusetts.
To be clear on the source of this information, Saint Consulting sits on the side of developers, calling itself "the world's leading experts in land use politics."
...[W}e focus exclusively on ensuring that our clients' real estate projects are approved and their market share is protected. The unique political skills of our staff, ongoing training and development, competitive corporate culture, and passion for what we do are the foundation of our success.With that as background, Saint asserts that 68 percent of the 1,000 people in their survey are "more likely to support new projects in their hometown," an increase of 10 percent from just a year ago. (The margin of error at a confidence level of 95 percent is 3.1 percent.) From the Saint press release:
Opposition fell - and support increased - for a local Wal-Mart, a large department store (Target, K-mart) and a home improvement center (Home Depot, Lowe's).Many more people were in favor of a new grocery store (about three-fourths).
- Wal-Mart: 54% [opposed] vs. 63% [a year ago]
- Large shopping center/mall: 56%vs. 62%
- Home Depot/Lowes: 44% vs. 55%
- Power Plant: 54% vs. 66%
Still, the vast majority of people, 74 percent, say things are developed enough as they are. I'm not sure how the same survey can reach such contradictory conclusions; I guess it has to do with the context of asking the questions.
To be sure, we haven't lost all sense of proportion -- three-quarters of people in the survey said they were opposed to a casino or landfill as a new project, and about 60 percent wisely said no to a quarry.
Saint Consulting sent me a summary of the survey results since 2006. I expected there would be an abrupt change in opinion after 2008, when the credit crisis and recession really took hold, but instead, there was a gradual softening toward all sorts of development over the whole period -- even quarries:
Source: Saint Consulting. Click on the graphic for a larger image
At first I had the impression that there was a positive association with the brand name stores? Maybe instead what's turning people people in favor of development is the prospect of people in the community be able to going to work.