Pure Horserace: Talking To His Base

At a cursory glance, recent headlines haven't been all that kind to Sen. John McCain or his campaign, with words like "stumbling" routinely used to describe the state of his presidential effort. Much of that perception has been driven by a lackluster — at least by current standards — fundraising start, although plenty of candidates would love to have raised more than $12 million in the past three months.

But it's not just money that has so many practitioners of political punditry and shapers of conventional wisdom shaking their heads. At a time when even some Hill Republicans are voicing doubts about the war in Iraq, many folks just can't seem to understand why McCain insists on continuing to serve as one of its staunchest supporters.

Poll numbers released by CBS News today back up that perception, at least in the wide view. Having spent some time talking about recent success in Iraq, many Americans disagree: Just 29% say McCain has described the situation accurately, while 39% say he's making it sound better than it is.

So why was McCain out there delivering a highly-publicized defense of the war — and of the current surge taking place? One reason, of course, is that he's always been one of the war's chief supporters. He has, almost since the beginning, called for more troops to be sent to Iraq for security reasons. He has, since the very beginning, warned of what he sees as disastrous consequences of failure. He has long said he'd rather lose a campaign than lose the war.

To suddenly distance himself from Iraq might cause McCain more problems than he is currently facing by opening his campaign to criticism of political opportunism. But maybe we're all so jaded, cynical and used to the posturing that we just expect it. For those, there's another reason: Many Republicans still support the war — and it's the Republican nomination McCain is looking to win.

It's telling that none of the Republican presidential candidates are calling for a quick end to the war or even a timetable, something the public at large supports. A recent CBS News poll found that 59% of Americans favored a timetable passed by the House. Still, most of the GOP field has been more comfortable talking about taxes and spending, health care proposals and the war on terrorism — not Iraq specifically.

McCain has been left to carry the Bush mantle — something that may prove heavy in a general election but may win him the trust and acceptance of the party's core primary voters. A CBS News poll taken in February showed 62% approval among Republicans for then-proposed troop surge. Moreover, a whopping 77% of GOP respondents said they felt the U.S. would ultimately succeed in Iraq and just 26% felt the situation there was getting worse at that time.

Those number may have changed slightly in the past couple months. but Republicans are not likely to nominate a war opponent in 2008 in any case. A lot of candidates on both sides of the aisle will have demonstrated some nifty footwork on certain issues in order to walk in step with primary voters. On Iraq, McCain has marched to the same drummer throughout. Why not turn that into a primary virtue?

Straight To Blog: For the second time this week, prospective presidential candidate Fred Thompson paid a visit to the Red State blog, this time to discuss his revelation that he has indolent lymphoma. In a post titled, "what you need to know," Thompson today wrote:

I have had no illness from it, or even any symptoms. My life expectancy should not be affected. I am in remission, and it is very treatable with drugs if treatment is needed in the future — and with no debilitating side effects.

I am one of the lucky ones. There are many lucky ones today. And for all of our diversity, we share one thing in common — a deep appreciation for the fact that we live in the United States of America and have the best medicine and the best doctors the world has even known.

An Original Copy Of The Declaration For The Millionth Person To Register? Television producer Norman Lear is spearheading a new effort to get young Americans to resister and vote in 2008. According to a report by The Associated Press, the Declare Yourself project will partner with Internet giants like Google and MySpace to popularize the group's Web site. It's a new twist on an effort that has existed since the 2004 election aimed at getting young voters involved in voting.

Lear, who owns an original copy of the Declaration of Independence, is also enlisting some high-profile stars, according the AP report, including actress Hayden Panettiere, who stars in the hit TV show, "Heroes." Register the youth, save the cheerleader?

My House Is Your House, But My Heart Belongs To Someone Else: This week, Bill and Hillary Clinton returned from an Easter holiday in the Dominican Republic, where they stayed at the home of fashion designer Oscar de la Renta. The Clintons have visited de la Renta several times since 2000 — but he is not the Clintons' most prolific host. One of the contenders for that honor goes to Boston developer Dick Friedman, who not only offers the Clintons use of his Charles Hotel whenever they're in Boston, but has repeatedly put them up at his home on Martha's Vineyard.

One assumes such an old friend would be a top Hillary-for-president supporter. But Friedman has an even-older friend in the race: Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd — and Friedman is his national finance chairman. "The truth is Chris Dodd's been my best friend for 25 or 30 years," Friedman told Pure Horserace. And Hillary? "I like her a great deal … but I knew Chris long before I knew the Clintons." Friedman says that Sen. Clinton, well known for the high value she places on loyalty, understands. "Hillary is fully aware of my relationship with Chris … and I won't say anything negative about her."

Editor's Note: Pure Horserace is a daily update of political news as interpreted by the political observers at CBSNews.com. Click here to sign up for the e-mail version.

By Vaughn Ververs